Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 23rd JULY

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

@Arcadia

Can we get excited about this yet?

Next Saturday is when I hope to officially be excited, that's where the impact of restrictions becomes clearer. 2.9 days for Delta infectiousness, 3.7 for symptoms, 5 to results. 4 days per cycle of being infected and infectious (nightclub), infecting another and that one passing it to someone who gets tested. 3 rounds because I don't believe there will be many 3 cycles of people who are all asymptomatic or untested AND yet all spreading.

I guess it means younger than the old people that everyone (especially unvaccinated young people) thinks are the only people who get ill?

So if this is genuine, the question is why is Delta so rapidly falling so quickly in many places, does it actually infect almost everyone (even if naive people don't test positive, ie they have some natural immunity or acquire immunity so quickly?) The vaccine and past infection rates are not, on the data available, high enough for things to fall this fast, there should be lots of people still around to be infected, why aren't they?

Was it ever explained why the delta variant in India burned bright and then fell away just as quickly ?

Are we seeing that same phenomenon on the UK ? And if so, why wouldn’t we ?

They may be but not testing.

@AnyFucker

Was it ever explained why the delta variant in India burned bright and then fell away just as quickly ?

Are we seeing that same phenomenon on the UK ? And if so, why wouldn’t we ?

The bigger R0 is, the steeper any curve will be, both on the way up and way down again.

Oh I hope so badly that this is on the way out and that our vaccines are working plus immunity through infection.

1. Weather
2. There is some vaccine immunity; the virus will start hitting vaccine walls and that will allow cases to drop; not to fully disappear, but to drop
3. K has been very high for covid and that might have unexpected impacts at a certain point. Not everyone has the same exposure risk nor infectivity; those most likely to be superspreaders (with lots of people and have a loud projecting voice) may now be immune from either vaccine or infection.

I don’t know why it is fall but it did fall in India yes there was some lockdown but not nationwide abs has stayed quite low despite low vaccination and more opening up. There may be something else going on ..I wonders if in addition to more hospital admissions it actually gave more symptomatic cases so therefore more isolation (because you feel too ill to go out) the third aysmpamtic cases figure hasn’t been updated re variants that I know? It may well differ particularly if prevalence of serious disease differs?

I wonder... more symptomatic cases so therefore more isolation
Very good point, this is plausible with the much higher viral load, in a study in China Delta gave 1200 times the viral load of the original Wuhan virus.

Universities, colleges and schools are out.

Looking at the ONS data up to 17th July, young people aged 11-24 are the part of the population where most of the cases are.

I have one of those, he got sent home on July 16th, not isolating but to work from home. He tested negative but was then much less likely to actually get covid as he wasn't doing any risky stuff. All our risk comes from school.

I think many of the unvaccinated young students are now back at home, not so much at risk following the end of term - and probably not testing as much? That might be a chunk of it.

The improvement in risk from kids being out of schools and colleges might balance some of the risk from opening up more.

Even though we can go to nightclubs and do without masks, many people aren't rushing to do that.

And meanwhile the vaccination percentages are inching up.

Lets hope all the numbers improve.

The bigger R0 is, the steeper any curve will be, both on the way up and way down again.

Yes, I said this a couple of weeks back and was told I was talking rubbish by people who believed that Covid cases could only get higher and higher and higher unless restrictions were tightened. It may yet rise again as the full
Impact of 19 July is felt, but the fact cases are dropping despite the lack of restrictions prior to 19 July is very good news.

Universities, colleges and schools are out.

I would suggest that this is what is causing the greatest impact - those groups in which cases were rising fastest have their numbers of daily contacts dramatically decreased at a stroke.

So many schools had many groups isolating close to the end of term that the effect has probably started a little earlier than we might expect.

If that is the case, then we might - as we did last year - have a relatively calm summer and then a resurgence in September, once the source of the majority of contacts is 'switched on' again.

If it is schools etc out it’s part of why nightclubs and other are opening now.

Which is good if it works to keep within capacity.

I simply don't accept "not testing", compliance is extremely high, and there's no mechanism I can see for suddenly 50% of the cases that would've been found two weeks ago not being found today, such a change in compliance is too rapid.

I also reject "schools out", etc. as it wouldn't explain the fall in the age groups without kids (the 18-25 year olds were not all teenage parents or live at home with siblings) And university students who have "returned home" would simply be mixing with their friends from home leading to more seeding as there will be more mixing in new groups.

And yes, the bigger the R0 the faster the fall, but for that, we'd need more identified cases - and we have not seen enough, especially with the more alarming "breakthrough infection" info from other countries - although we obviously don't really know how many, but there's clearly plenty of vaccinated people who are infected.

More symptoms, so more isolation - that would've suppressed delta previously, and there was no evidence of it, it spread rapidly.

But schools are Covid safe. Boris and JVT said Covid can't spread in them. So staff are all safe and didn't need any vaccine priority. Surely it can't be possible that schools were maybe actually breeding grounds for a virus. Who knew ?
Maybe, in September, it would be an idea to wear masks to stop it spreading again. Or it will be the in out dance all over again.

@sirfredfredgeorge

I simply don't accept "not testing", compliance is extremely high, and there's no mechanism I can see for suddenly 50% of the cases that would've been found two weeks ago not being found today, such a change in compliance is too rapid.

I also reject "schools out", etc. as it wouldn't explain the fall in the age groups without kids (the 18-25 year olds were not all teenage parents or live at home with siblings) And university students who have "returned home" would simply be mixing with their friends from home leading to more seeding as there will be more mixing in new groups.

And yes, the bigger the R0 the faster the fall, but for that, we'd need more identified cases - and we have not seen enough, especially with the more alarming "breakthrough infection" info from other countries - although we obviously don't really know how many, but there's clearly plenty of vaccinated people who are infected.

More symptoms, so more isolation - that would've suppressed delta previously, and there was no evidence of it, it spread rapidly.

Interesting points

What would you say is happening?

The numbers for Wales seem to have risen so what is going on?

It's just hit the vaccine wall.

Surely it can't be possible that schools were maybe actually breeding grounds for a virus.

ONS study results show that schools are not exactly the "breeding grounds". Yes, schools are a vector (i.e. they are not magic places where Covid transmission stops) but they are nowhere as significant as - say - pub gatherings during Euro 2020 games.

I have attached case graphs from Scotland at least twice so I will not be boring people again. The levels of infections in young adults rose and dropped much faster than in the schoolchildren. I am sure some people will still believe that cases in men aged between 20 and 24 peaked on June 28 and then fell off the cliff because Scotland's schools closed between June 23 and 25. However I am not sure this explanation is particularly plausible. I find the alternative (Scotland dropping off from the Euro tournament on June 22) slightly more convincing.

Marking my place. Cautiously pleased about today's drop.
I'll be glad once my dcs will be a week out of school and we might be able to relax. All had negative LFT's today, so a good start.

compliance is extremely high

Seriously?

Any thoughts about why Zoe app estimates are so much higher at the moment? I know they are often out but not by 30k like they are now. My area shows a quarter increase since last week on Zoe too.

It seems strange, almost too good to be true.
Off to read more about high R0 .

I wonder, is sewage still being tested? If so, where are the results? That would be used information right now.