Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 23rd JULY

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

Have Wales said when they plan to open nightclubs?

Just to note on reinfection risk that oddly doesn't seem to be in the reports. It isn't as simple a picture as "antibodies wane in 6 months"; there is a harder to quantify impact of the variants from the actual infection or from vaccination. The risk of lower immunity is likely to be higher between variants, i.e. original strain could be reinfected by Alpha, Beta or Delta. The risk of Delta infection being reinfected with Delta is lower, because there are antibodies to that particular variant. There is of course also a risk of waning immunity with antibodies being lost, but protection from severe infections by T-cells, B-cells etc; but the wider picture is important in considering threats.

@alreadytaken

On a data thread I am surprised to see so little discussion of the position in Wales. 90% of the population have had at least 1 dose of vaccine and nearly 78% a second dose. They still have some measures in place - like masks on public transport. Their case rates are staying low, their deaths are in single figures.

It makes an interesting comparison with England - and will be more so in 10 days when they have kept nightclubs shut and England has not.

I would also say - relatives in Wales - that the more consistent messaging and more cautious approach throughout (though i know it has annoyed people at times) does seem to have led to slightly more cautious behaviour on average. Obviously that is a personal observation, and there will be places where the situation is different, but I found it striking, even though I live in a place in England where adherence to rules has been very strong throughout.

Also, of course, very little Euros effect....

MRex
On your point about reinfection from different variants. Indeed. I mentioned this upthread. It is going to be tricky to pick apart.

I'm not sure if you can directly compare Wales to England as a whole. England's population is 55 million, whereas the population of Wales is about the same as Greater Manchester. There will be significant differences in rates between different English regions.

Just to be pedantic, only 72.1% and 62.3% of the total population of Wales is first/second vaccinated, it's 90%/77.7% of the adult population.

@MarshaBradyo nightclubs in Wales can open Sat 6 Aug “conditions permitting”

@MarshaBradyo meant Sat 7 August!

[quote PatrickTheFox]@MarshaBradyo meant Sat 7 August![/quote]
Thanks!

OK, I would just like to correct myself.

Until 4th July , The total number of recorded repeat infections (LFT or PCR positives more than 90 days apart) recorded in the U.K. EVER is 23,105 out of a total of ~4.3 million. This is ~0.5%.

Small fry.

This conversation is now happening on Twitter if anyone is interested. Only Marsha is kallmeg, lonely is Richard and it appears I am {hangs head in shame} Robert Peston!

Although I am not trying to make out there is a problem or anything untoward going on (as Peston appears to be), but my attention has been drawn to reinfections snd how we monitor and learn from them.

Apparently PHE are on the case and defining new metrics for reinfection. I do think they want to improve the way this is reported even further, just it is very tricky.

I will be interested to see the next report, that includes an updated figure on reinfections.

We should be able to subtract the previous figures snd calculate a percentage of reinfections occurring more recently.

I wonder if it will remain similar to that over the whole pandemic so far or whether it will increase significantly, as it will now pick up reinfections where the first was since jan 2021.

Ha Everything I’m not sure who the person is you mention so won’t look in case insulting

I jest. I’m not against more information on re-infection. On the contrary I agree it will be very useful to see if it increases.

kallmeg is perfectly reputable

Ha, no Marsha, it’s a compliment
Meghan Kall is an epidemiologist and data analyst for PHE. She works really hard on Twitter to explain their data to the public.

I really recommend going on Twitter to follow the scientists, mathematicians, phe, nhs and sage data.

Between us on here, we could easily come up with a list to follow.

I was never on before, never ever tweeted (or ever will). But if you’re careful about who you follow , it is 99% really useful and better and much more insightful than the general newspapers.

You get to know where people are on the spectrum of covid opinion and can really learn from the debate.

Bit like the data thread really!

Reinfections are certain to increase. This time last year we'd only had 300,000 confirmed cases so barely anyone would have been eligible to count as a reinfection in the second wave. Second wave immunity would be on the wane now though most adults have been vaccinated since and children are off school now. I think we'll probably see a lot more cases in September in children and people who were vaccinated in the first quarter.

@MRex

Just to note on reinfection risk that oddly doesn't seem to be in the reports. It isn't as simple a picture as "antibodies wane in 6 months"; there is a harder to quantify impact of the variants from the actual infection or from vaccination. The risk of lower immunity is likely to be higher between variants, i.e. original strain could be reinfected by Alpha, Beta or Delta. The risk of Delta infection being reinfected with Delta is lower, because there are antibodies to that particular variant. There is of course also a risk of waning immunity with antibodies being lost, but protection from severe infections by T-cells, B-cells etc; but the wider picture is important in considering threats.

I think PHE are looking into it. This is from the delta risk assessment.

@everythingthelighttouches. I absolutely agree about Twitter. Some highly respected experts who put a huge amount of effort into posting. I follow quite a few - can't find Meghan Kall? I only lurk on there like I do here!

My list includes
@sailorrooscout - vaccine developer, worked on Moderna. Lots of data and explanations of how vaccines work.
@john_actuary lots of graphs
@BallouxFrancois - immunologist
@andrew_croxford
@trishgreenhalgh - professor of primary care with an interest in masks

You know what I was thinking. What if this pesky pingdemic that is destroying our economy, is actually doing its job? And funnily enough, saving our economy?

Delayed again? I think someone at PHE lent out the abacuses for the weekend.

Won’t be needing dem abacuses much longer anyway.

Blimey!

Can we get excited about this yet?

FizziWater

Meaghan kall is @kallmemeg

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/25/seriously-ill-young-people-in-current-covid-admissions-expert-warns

maybe not quite yet...

@Piggywaspushed

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/25/seriously-ill-young-people-in-current-covid-admissions-expert-warns

maybe not quite yet...

Reduced cases=less sick people

I think it's worth getting excited about.

From that article:
"Young people are getting “seriously ill” from Covid-19, a member of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation has warned, as he urged them to get vaccinated."

Unless they're under 18, in which case they can't.