Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 23rd JULY

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

Zoe changed their methodology recently. They were massively underreporting, it's possible they've gone to far the other way.

And yes, the bigger the R0 the faster the fall, but for that, we'd need more identified cases - and we have not seen enough, especially with the more alarming "breakthrough infection" info from other countries
3 week gap for Pfizer is not the same as a 12 week gap for several reasons:

1. UK January vaccinations got a second jab in March/April rather than January, so much less time for efficacy to drop
2. Immune response improves with a longer gap
3. AZ didn't yet show the same big efficacy reductions of Pfizer, and UK has a lot of AZ; whether that's about timing, or 12 week gap, or vaccine difference - it may have an impact.
4. Immunity is growing for 18-4569 still

However I am not sure this explanation is particularly plausible. I find the alternative (Scotland dropping off from the Euro tournament on June 22) slightly more convincing

But what are those people doing instead, was it so depressing that they became hermits? 'cos even if they weren't now travelling to games, mixing with new people etc, the general prevalence would've meant that their normal friend groups / local pubs / 5-a-side teams etc. would've all had cases to then introduce back into them. I'd accept a reduction in R, but to get R back below 1?

And the same today - 1 in 75 people had covid 10 days ago, that should be what 1 in 50 now unless something changed to reduce spread, but nothing has - unless we say the "pingdemic" suddenly started working in a way it had never done before.

And yes, I do still think compliance is high! The number of tests shows that, and if you're going to argue compliance is not high, then the cases must be hugely understated, in which case why are hospitalisations low and following the cases pattern so well? Hospital cases would become differently correlated as community compliance changes, and it hasn't

@boys3

There seemed to be a bit of confusion on the last thread.

A map for those who struggle with the concept of the UK (United Kingdom) being four nations with devolved decision making around health. Whilst England is by the far the largest with around 85% of the UK population; Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland are, and this may come as a surprise to some, not in fact part of England.

Nightclubs, a topic of the moment, have re-opened in England only; but are not re-opened yet in Northern Ireland, Scotland, or Wales.

So let's try to get the basics right.

The UK is not a synonym for England.

Love this Boys!

As a non English Brit it's something that I am aware of more than most.

Immunity is growing for 18-4569 still

Good news for Methuselah

Heh. I've no idea where the 69 came from, it just snuck in.

@sirfredfredgeorge

Immunity is growing for 18-4569 still

Good news for Methuselah

I've had a bit of a dig around on the dashboard and the drop in cases doesn't seem to be due to a drop in LFT testing. I've had to smooth the data as most LFT positives are listed under the specimen date for the confirmatory PCR which it seems is often on a different day and most people report LFTs on Sunday or Monday and Wednesday or Thursday. This chart is a three day rolling average of positive LFTs as a percentage of the same three days of reported tests. LFT positivity have been dropping since around the 17th.

@cantkeepawayforever

If that is the case, then we might - as we did last year - have a relatively calm summer and then a resurgence in September, once the source of the majority of contacts is 'switched on' again.

That's the worry - things are going to be pushed forward a couple of weeks and will coincide with schools and universities being back open.

And flu season will be just around the corner.

1,470 cases in males between 20-29, linked to Scotland in the Euros, in PHS statistics report on 30/06. Yes there was a football related spike in males 20-24, but without schools finishing and lots of folk going on annual leave( and the weather ) I find it hard to see how cases could have decreased like they have.
wintertravel1980 do you have a graph showing total numbers rather than per 100,000?

@cantkeepawayforever

If that is the case, then we might - as we did last year - have a relatively calm summer and then a resurgence in September, once the source of the majority of contacts is 'switched on' again.

But won’t vaccines nearly being done for all adults by then make a big change from last year?

Even with cases it’s hospitalisation that’s key

It won’t be nothing but it may be in capacity

People who are testing will probably have been testing previously. People who didn’t bother to test might be infected but not testing.

@Mrex I think what you say makes a lot of sense on why breakthrough extensions could logically be a lot lower here, it would require the 12week vs 4week to be significant though I think, not just time from last dose. But it may well be.

I still don't think there's enough cases to reach much of a vaccine wall given the mixing, would be useful to know breakthrough percentage in the dashboard, it would need to be very low to get us closer to hat wall.

My hurricane maybe getting downgraded to a tropical storm or possibly a bit of a squall; one of those in London today I see.

Coouple of graphs showing the current 7 day rate and the absolute movement as compared with the previous 7 day period.

This is England

coouple is a regionalism'; so best accompanied by *regions^ in England

County Council areas

London - Inner

London - outer

North West UTLAs

North West - Lancashire district councils

Yorks& Humber

North East

all fingers and thumbs I see

Having been drawn into an argument on a general thread..... I should know better..... I came across the update National Audit report on T&T. Some interesting stats on the first summary page, not least that they have "only" spent 13.5billion (gulp) but nowhere near the oft quoted £37, but also lots of interesting data on where the spend has gone.

This had me wondering:
14% the percentage of lateral fl ow tests registered as used by
26 May 2021. NHST&T had distributed 691 million tests and
results had been recorded for 96 million of them

But won’t vaccines nearly being done for all adults by then make a big change from last year?

Yes, my comparison with last year was on the 'shape of the graph' rather than the 'specific nature of the cases within the graph'.

This wave has been built, very substantially, on cases in younger age groups. Of those age groups, only the vaccination status of 18+ will have changed by September, and then only just - 18 yo DD, in a region known for being somewhat ahead of national rollout, will get her second vaccine towards the end of August.

The age groups brought together in their hundreds / thousands by return to school (in far greater numbers, and with a far greater concentration of the unvaccinated, compared with summertime mixing) will still be unvaccinated in September, and it is from that group I would imagine that the surge in cases will reappear. It may well grow faster, if unseen, because of the lack of self-isolation.

The impact on higher age groups - and therefore on hospitalisations and deaths - is somewhat unknown. The oldest groups could be caught between waning immunity from initial vaccination but pre-booster by schools returning at the very start of Septembe.