On the modelling it is important to remember that he government did not include any models that did not have full lifting. So the timing of full lifting was under discussion but not full lifting vs retaining step three or some mid way point. Data in -> data out.
The government has chosen high infections over low infections, so also high hospitalisations and high deaths.
We had lower death/hospitalisations policy options available but unmodelled, and therefore not included in the comparison. That is because Johnson had decided on freedom day for political reasons.
The high infections policy is a straightforward political gamble borne of necessity as Tory party would no longer back restrictions. The PM's gambles failed the first, second and third times, but maybe this time he will cash in. This does not make it a sound policy choice.
This is what I mean about hope - there is nothing backing up this policy beyond the PM's personal preference to risk more deaths for fewer restrictions.
Current real data tracking shows the model was an under estimate of the problems we would face, which is why Whitty was heard talking about restrictions possibly being back in August (presumably if we end up with a graph bad enough), so in three-four weeks we will see where we are.