96 dead today...

[Homeontherangeuk]

But Boris knows what he's doing...

[quote User5827372728]@Myplantsare

We will know in 2 weeks as takes about that long from testing positive to getting seriously ill[/quote]
Agreed. And, looking at the data from last year, about 5.5 weeks between testing positive and death in those who get seriously ill.

Whether that will hold true now (vaccines, different strain, etc) I don’t know.

There’s also the rather unpalatable fact that many of the very vulnerable will already have succumbed to it. We see a similar phenomenon following particularly nasty flu seasons.

Do people think there will be zero deaths? It's not realistic.

Sad but to be expected sadly it has weakened but not removed the link - the death rate has gone from 2% to 0.16% (I think) so given the case numbers we have been having plus historically higher on Tuesday.

We cannot go back to lockdown - and its not that Boris Johnson knows better instead he is fully aware that he faces a rebellion in the back benchers. The government are responsible for the decision not just Boris Johnson.

Should we have kept some restrictions in yes of course. I would have done. But it isnt a surprise that a conservative government has chosen not too

How many of those were elderly people who died with Covid but not of Covid?

At some point we have to accept that we can’t stay locked down forever and we have a new virus that kills a tiny minority of people who catch it. Money should be ploughed until treatment regimes now instead of restrictions.

It’s death within 28 days of a positive test, not deaths directly related to Covid, so I would imagine that other factors such as the extreme heat at the weekend played a role in some deaths.

As more and more people are vaccinated, a greater property of the deaths have been double vaccinated. That does not mean the vaccines aren’t working.

There’s a great article explaining why here…

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/theobserver/commentisfree/2021/jun/27/why-most-people-who-now-die-with-covid-have-been-vaccinated

@Fairyliz

Surely this must mean the vaccine isn’t working!!! On July 19th 2020 no one had been vaccinated and less people had had Covid so no natural immunity. Yet the deaths then were on 26. Still awful but not as bad. So does the vaccine work or do we just have to take our chance?

The majority of hospitalisations aren't fully vaccinated. Lots and lots of people still aren't vaccinated. Very high case rates in the population means that even if only a small proportion of people get seriously ill and die, that translates into bigger and bigger numbers even if the percentage is low.

@Egghead68

Could you please provide us with an option that doesn't include an exit wave over the winter, doesn't ruin our economy and mental health further

Well one way that would avoid an exit wave would be to get herd immunity (for now at least) through vaccination before opening up. Israel did not have an exit wave. It’s not inevitable.

Delta is too transmissible to get herd immunity unless we get all children vaccinated which isn't on the agenda. We need to remember last time cases were this high over 1500 people died.

I agree with @Pieceofpurplesky and @Egghead68 - vaccines are helping and the situation is nowhere near as dire as it was last year, but some people will always remain vulnerable. We can't eradicate Covid, we can only mitigate with vaccines and common sense measures as and when needed. The deaths are sad and I understand why people are fearful, but I think we need to find ways to live with Covid, rather than put our lives on hold indefinitely.

The vaccine is working very well, but it does not offer 100% protection, so a few double vaccinated will die,

In addition, the vaccine takes time to work, so just vaccinated is not fully protected. Finally, and most importantly, an 1/8 of the adult population is not vaccinated at all.

We are expecting a few more 10s of 1,000s of deaths in the ‘exit wave’. If the hospitals can cope, it is the least bad alternative.

It is highly risky though, both depending on no further bad mutations and vaguely sensible behaviour.

Delta is too transmissible to get herd immunity unless we get all children vaccinated which isn't on the agenda

That’s right. We would need about 98% of the population vaccinated which includes children. This could be put on the agenda if there was the political will. Most countries are vaccinating at least older children.

I’m not, by the way, necessarily advocating this, just putting it forward as an option.

It would be useful to know how many people have died from, for example, 1. Cancer, 2. Stroke. 3. Heart attack in the same time frames. I think we would be unpleasantly surprised at how many people do die every day, from all sorts of horrible things, not Covid alone.

Sorry to hear that.

I'd be more concerned about those figures if they broke them down into people who went into hospital and acquired Covid whilst there..............and those who died from other reasons but happened to also have Covid.

@weekend2021

PickleAF

I don't understand this idea people have that Boris alone is making all of these decisions off the top of his head? confused he's advised by panels of scientists and advisors and the hundreds of people work on providing the data that goes into these decisions. Yes people have died with (not always of!) covid, but the last time cases were this high thousands were dying.

Ditto

The buck stops with Boris - he’s the leader of the country and willingly put himself forward for that; it’s not like he unwittingly ended up in number 10.

If the leader of the leaders isn’t ultimately responsible, who is?

@brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr
Egghead68
And p.s. cases were artificially low last July as we had recently come out of a lockdown.
that’s not artificially low, that’s genuinely low and evidence the lockdown worked

We don’t disagree! By artificial I mean that they were brought down by a lockdown, not through letting it run its course, as is happening now.

@Egghead68 Israel cases are rising and they have reimposed some restrictions

@Fairyliz

Surely this must mean the vaccine isn’t working!!! On July 19th 2020 no one had been vaccinated and less people had had Covid so no natural immunity. Yet the deaths then were on 26. Still awful but not as bad. So does the vaccine work or do we just have to take our chance?

Many things were also still shut or had only recently opened a year ago.

Just some very rough numbers for context:

In the last 28 days there have been around 879,707 cases.

Taking an average life span of 85 years, this means we each live around 31,025 days.

So if the cases are spread across the population, we could expect 880k/31k which is around 28 deaths a day, regardless of covid. The 7 day average is around 50 a day, so we are looking at around 22 covid deaths a day. Each of these is sad but compared with previous waves, does show the efficacy of the vaccines.

Israel did not have an exit wave. It’s not inevitable.

1. The exit wave became inevitable with Delta.
2. Israel is going through the exit wave now. They are a few weeks behind the UK.

@PickleAF

I don't understand this idea people have that Boris alone is making all of these decisions off the top of his head? he's advised by panels of scientists and advisors and the hundreds of people work on providing the data that goes into these decisions. Yes people have died with (not always of!) covid, but the last time cases were this high thousands were dying.

LOL and you think he listens to his panel of scientists?? No way! Scientists all over the world are tearing his decision apart because IT MAKES NO SENSE.

We'll never know how few actually died of rather than with. I bet it's at most half of what is reported.
I stopped looking way back as it tells us nothing.
One bloke was ill for a month, fell off a ladder, died of his injuries but tested positive, caught in hospital.

We can not stay locked down forever. We need to get back to some kind of ‘normal’.

Scientists are only looking at what covid is doing they are not looking at what impact keeping everything closed is doing in regards to the economy and peoples mental health etc.

Yes cases have risen but that was always expected. The number of deaths have decreased when you look at the larger picture.

They should stop releasing the numbers now. No other illness such as cancer or the flu etc release daily numbers of deaths.

Continually posters say we cannot relax restrictions until “everybody” is vaccinated.

There have been hundreds of threads with people fretting about being vaccinated - some genuinely scared, plenty started by anti-vaxxers. Now there are threads with people stating that their dcs/teens will not be “guinea pigs” etc.

How can we possibly ever reach the vaccination levels that some posters require for reopening? It’s impossible. All we can do is hope as many as possible see the benefit and appreciate that there will be deaths - mostly in the unvaccinated. Several posters have linked to the Guardian article in which a covid ward doctor is angry at the staff having to treat vaccine refusers who could have avoided becoming so ill.

Another country that has just entered the exit wave is Malta. They have vaccinated 80% of the total population (not just adults). Do we really think we will be able to exceed this level any time soon?

I am sure some people do not mind "standing in a meadow completely on their own ad infinitum" but for the whole world it is not an option.