but a lot of those most vocal against it are the usual crowd who have been anti-lockdown and anti-mask throughout
Bullshit.
I'm against this level of government intervention as I think it harms those with health issues more in the long run. Normalising surveillance society creates data for companies (particularly health companies) who can then discriminate for their own financial reasons.
I'm double vaccinated. Been pro lockdown and felt it wasn't early enough on all occasions. I am not pro opening up but think that masks should have been mandatory for slightly longer. On nightclubs, im undecided on whether 19th was the right date. I probably leaned towards giving them another two weeks but the data from the last couple of days suggesting cases overall are down - and more significantly that the growth in cases in younger age groups is about to go negative looks really promising.
James Ward @jamesward73
case growth in the worst-affected age group (20-24s) is falling further and faster than I had dared to expect, now firmly into negative territory: 1/4
other age groups are following, although on slightly less precipitous trends. in particular the growth in older (over-60) age groups is slower to fall, but that's to be expected - so not a concern at this stage. 2/4
so now my overall R estimate for England is poised at a tantalising 1.01. note there is still some incomplete data in this, but it also has 3 days of averaging, so I'd hope for the next day's number to be a bit lower again 🤞. 3/4
I'm still refusing to get too excited, we really don't know what Step 4 is going to mean for case growth, or when exactly it will feed into the data. so please treat any "it's all over" tweets with great caution. but I'd much rather be here than where we were last weekend. /end
Now its early days but if the trend continues the argument for passes starts to become much weaker.
The argument for passes tends to ignore tbe point that cases wont rise forever and we will reach a point where there is enough immunity not to get these huge peaks and there is a significant disadvantage in these type of measures because they endanger the viability of the entire industry. So you end up with people not going to nightclubs as they've closed (especially smaller ones) or packed in like sardines into bigger ones.
My fear over vaccine passports also is based on how it will drive a criminal trade in fake passports or situations where dickheads get vaccinated multiple times for others for financial gain. Or just people faking things off their own back en masse. Thus endangering others without them being aware.
No one who is pro passports ever tackles the potential risk from criminality.
My point here is that people who are resistant enough at vaccines at a certain point will actively look for ways to bypass the system rather than be forced to change their minds because we have such a high uptake. We are talking about the entrenched who are difficult to change minds. Forcing the issue is more likely to further deepen entrenchment in a sizeable percentage of those left unvacinated rather than have the desired effect because thats human psychology for you. Gentle persuasion of the stubborn few by not being confrontational is likely to yield better results.
The ONLY place im in favour of them is for travel and then i think it should be linked to your passport and you don't have to download apps etc - passport control are the only ones who can see this. But this relies on countries banging their heads together...