Will we be locking down again this year?

[Vindawoo]

Sorry, I'm sure it's been done to death

But do you think we will lock down again this year or are we done for now? Seems unlikely given the new blasé attitude of Boris etc - He seems to care less now

Look at the Netherlands. 50,000 tested positive yesterday I think after two weeks from when they reopened. And they are a much smaller country. I don't have the data or a crystal ball but 100,000 is not unthinkable in August. I will be bunkering in my rabbit hole.

Correcting my numbers: 51,000 tested positive in the last week. So about 7,300 daily and increasing. that would be like 27k daily for the UK, based on population size. The big point is, the cases increased five fold after they reopened two weeks ago. Shows you how quick it can take up.

@Sparklingbrook

'Covid tits' is that on the list of symptoms now?

apparently for those with Pfizer.

I had az... and my tits are so small I should have waited for pfizer!

[quote Blessex]@Covidforalways it’s well documented that the Sinovac vaccine is less effective. Not politics at all.[/quote]
AZ 62% effective, Sinovac 56% - with doses given 21 days apart, against delta infection.

PHE data actually showed (2 doses) 60% effective against delta infection for AZ.

Delta is escaping all the current vaccines, not just the Chinese ones.

But fortunately are preventing serious illness in most cases, which is the main point.

The NHS workers I know have been given instructions to prepare for "the next lockdown" this winter. To be honest I was quite surprised by that. I think lockdowns are a thing of the past and the Government will just let it rip through the population now

(a) this is bollocks and (b) in what way would the NHS even need to prepare for a lockdown? Its staff would keep working as normal and their children would keep going to school.

The reason the trust I work for keeps dipping in and out of Opel 4 (aka black alert) is not due to numbers of Covid patients but primarily (i) pressure on ED, particularly from those who have struggled to access primary care (who in turn have been put under immense pressure delivering the mass vaccination programme), (ii) staffing pressures due to track and trace isolations and primary school bubble closures and (iii) limitations on capacity due to Covid infection control measures eg 2 patients on an 8 bedded Covid ward means 6 empty beds that can't be used. Plus all the usual problems haven't gone away eg stranded patients with nowhere to discharge to.

Awww I want covid tits. I had Pfizer and they did nothing for mine and I could do with a bit up top after going from a FF to A cup after losing weight.
All I was hoping for with my jab was for my legs to grow an extra couple of inches so I could.run faster.

I had AZ. Tits still same size. Feel cheated.

I predict an uplift for minimiser bra sales.

Will people be angry when they find out how "protected" the NHS has been by these lockdowns?
Would they even be able to sell Lockdown 4 once knowledge of this becomes more widespread.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4296192-NHS-White-Paper-will-remove-the-statutory-duty-to-provide-hospital-medical-services

[quote MercyBooth]Will people be angry when they find out how "protected" the NHS has been by these lockdowns?
Would they even be able to sell Lockdown 4 once knowledge of this becomes more widespread.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4296192-NHS-White-Paper-will-remove-the-statutory-duty-to-provide-hospital-medical-services[/quote]
No, people voted for this.
Its got nothing to do with Covid or lockdowns, it was always going to happen.

Of course it was always going to happen once people chose the government we have.

Exactly. And yet people still bought their "protect the NHS" bollocks.

My view, not based on any scientific knowledge (I'm a halfwit) ........ If a variant escapes the vaccine, we will all be in lockdown again this winter.

The odds of such a variant, I have no idea.

There can be "lockdowns " announced all they want but there's nothing in this world that would stop me seeing friends and family again. The only thing another lockdown will do is ruin the economy even further , it isn't in anyones interest to lockdown again, we can't afford it, simple as

@OliveTree75

You said hospitals in NE are calling black alerts suggesting they aren't coping atm, which was untrue.

I am sorry @OliveTree75 but I believe @PrincessNutNuts is correct about NE hospitals struggling

www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/hospital-visits-suspended-two-north-21046849

[quote Itsprobablynotcominghome]**@PrincessNutNuts

You still think we’ll hit 100,000? I thought originally you said we’d easily hit by 19th July?

Can’t see it happening personally.[/quote]
Well @PrincessNutNuts was right about hospitals in the NE struggling when everyone said they were fine, she may be right about this too

@Wellbythebloodyhell

There can be "lockdowns " announced all they want but there's nothing in this world that would stop me seeing friends and family again. The only thing another lockdown will do is ruin the economy even further , it isn't in anyones interest to lockdown again, we can't afford it, simple as

This. I wont be told I can not see people in my own home. Hell, during the first lockdown we were not even allowed to see people outside. Such dark times. I wont go back to that... not ever.

@Jenasaurus I think hospital thing is a fact the other is conjecture you can’t compare

Plus hospitals do alert a main issue with it is isolating staff

I think it’s quite possible we’ll need to lockdown again. The link between hospitalisations/deaths and infections looks to be significantly weakened but it’s a numbers game. There could still be a risk of hospitals being overwhelmed if infected no. Are so high that the hospitalised proportion rises above the critical threshold to be manageable. With more mixing and freedom flu and other seasonal diseases will also be adding to potential over-capacity issues within the NHS. As time goes on with better treatments, increasingly effective vaccination, increased NHS capacity (we can hope!) then it’ll become less of an issue and will be more practical to live with.

I also think there’s an issue with infections sky rocketing and leading to mass staff absence in key sectors (healthcare, teachers, etc) which the government might want to take a circuit breaker approach to in the interim until vaccination combined with natural immunity catches up.

I’m still not sure we know about long term efficacy of the current vaccines (or natural
Immunity) against current strains or new variants. For new variants we ideally need to take a global view and ensure vaccination is accessible for all countries - but this us going to take time and a bit more of a stronger commitment from higher income countries.

I do think there’s light at the end of the tunnel, but to me, we’re only 75% of the way through to being able to practically (and morally) learn to live with covid.

Well@PrincessNutNutswas right about hospitals in the NE struggling when everyone said they were fine, she may be right about this too

Except she was actually referring to Barnsley thinking that it was in the NE...

[quote Bordois]Well@PrincessNutNutswas right about hospitals in the NE struggling when everyone said they were fine, she may be right about this too

Except she was actually referring to Barnsley thinking that it was in the NE...[/quote]
Doesn't matter exactly where it is, what matters is that hospitals are struggling.

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9787329/Lethal-mix-Covid-flu-common-cold-virus-winter-push-NHS-breaking-point.html

[quote MercyBooth]Will people be angry when they find out how "protected" the NHS has been by these lockdowns?
Would they even be able to sell Lockdown 4 once knowledge of this becomes more widespread.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4296192-NHS-White-Paper-will-remove-the-statutory-duty-to-provide-hospital-medical-services[/quote]
Lockdown hasn’t caused this. Voting for Tories did. Ignoring warnings that they’d do this did. All the noise about freedom day is a convenient distraction…

I am sorry @OliveTree75 but I believe @PrincessNutNuts is correct about NE hospitals struggling
Well they might be but the fact was she said hospitals were issuing black alerts in the NE when it wad actually barnsley!

Yes. It’s not if but when later this year quarter 3/4 2021.

The English government irresponsible irreversible no lockdown nonsense is not based on science, nor data but just popularity politics.

However the next set of Covid restrictions won’t be a “lockdown” as such but more specific instructions. The current arrangements is individual “lockdown” via mobile track and tracing mobile app not the traditional geographical based blanket request to stay at home. This confusingly previously included an endless list of supposedly key or critical workers (not all legitimately are) subject to flexible freedoms to leave home unchecked and rarely with any checking nor enforcement.

In short we in England (and wider UK) never had a globally standard implemented real lockdown where health and identity paperwork or mobile tracking is used to only permit short quick single person local food and medicine trips and within particular hours with evening curfews etc. We in the UK will never therefore have a lockdown as never had apart from more future extra Covid restrictions but possibly on an individual or local council or regional basis.

Autumn and winter 2020 looks challenging if based on current trending Covid data. More lives and livelihoods will be lost. All standard globally adopted personal risk mitigation helps to keep life more flexible and less restrictive for all. Saying I am exempt (when untrue without proof) when asked usually does little in a pandemic but prolong it. Exceptionalism entitlement is not compatible with a global pandemic science with ever more contagious variants due to more mixing in the same breathing space without sensible pragmatic mitigation measures. Vaccination helps to limit fatalities along with normal personal risk mitigation measures.