Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 11th JULY

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
List of useful data links below. Suggestions for additions, and indeed deletions, always welcome.
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

More the sitting on a bench one when isolating, probably with negative PCR

More than the party and sibling one

some private schools finished last week and others shut down earlier : schools already closed for summer don't affect those stats.

Anyhoo, as I said it's the other 60000 I am intrigued by. That's a lot of kids.

We have had at least three incidents like that now marsha. Infuriating.

Also, very few of them have been having PCRs when isolating (less than 10%, including LFT positives) so not sure how that will pan out in September!

Yes covid affects dc and there is long covid but over all at the same moment it's not affecting them too badly, which is such a blessing because there would be no way to keep them safe at school if it had affected them badly.

They hug, sing, share drinks, ear phones, snuggle up, take group selfies, hug, hold hands!
There is no way we as a society could have kept them apart.

I am just grateful my youngest has finished school (Y13 so almost tow months ago now). And exceptionally grateful to all the teaching and support staff at his school - and by extension recognise the huge efforts that have and continue to be made across the sector; despite the woeful central government support.

Anyway MSOAs; just to 46 with a suppressed case number from the latest dashboard file.

Then the 25 MSOAs with the highest current rates; mainly appear to be in South Tyneside

but taking a more optimistic look these are the 25 MSOAs with the highest rates 2 wks ago. Many still with high rates but most moving in the right direction. First column is how their rate ranks relative to others , and second how they ranked two weeks ago.

looking then at deprivation (based on average deprivation score for each LSOA in an MSOA; a bit crude but.......arguably more meaningful than a scatter graph with 6791 data points.

Breaking this down a bit the 10% most deprived and 10% least deprived side by side. Y axis (rate per 100,000) uses same scale for both graphs; x axis is adjusted to reflect deprivation score

and finally again side by side the MSOAs (300) with a rate of at least 750 per 100,000 in the most recent week; and those (slightly more) with a rate of 100 per 100,000 or less.

x axis the same on the final graph set; y axis obviously different

@amicissimma

I wonder how well we can measure the effect of secondary children 'isolating'. The local shopping centre and park are a mass of children who look too young to be out because of GCSEs and A levels being over. you can fit a surprisingly large number of pre- or young teens on one bench if you skip the social distancing.

We have communal gardens to our flats. Last week there were 5 primary aged children from 4 different households and 4 different schools all isolating and therefore playing out together in the garden.

Boys, thanks for all that work!

Could you kindly explain to a non-mathmo/ -scientist what the scatter graphs tell us? I understand what they plot, but not what the point of them is - if that doesn’t sound too rude!

Thank you 😊

@Piggywaspushed

some private schools finished last week and others shut down earlier : schools already closed for summer don't affect those stats.

Anyhoo, as I said it's the other 60000 I am intrigued by. That's a lot of kids.

No. They don't affect the stats. They are also safe from being infected, unlike kids at state schools.

from being infected as a result of sitting in overcrowded indoor spaces all day, at school, I mean

@JanFebAnyMonth

Boys, thanks for all that work!

Could you kindly explain to a non-mathmo/ -scientist what the scatter graphs tell us? I understand what they plot, but not what the point of them is - if that doesn’t sound too rude!

Thank you 😊

The initial 3 show a clear correlation of higher cases in most deprived areas, lower cases in least deprived areas. I'm not sure what the last one shows.

Long time lurker. Could anyone knowing the actual stats/facts answer a question I’ve been pondering?

If you don’t wear a mask indoors and have covid (knowingly or unknowingly), presumably you breathe out the virus into the air every time you breathe. So, in my head, the virus is then out there in the air in a much higher level than if the mask had been kept on. Putting a mask on to get closer to people would help mitigate the risk when close, but if you’ve been, say, sitting at your desk without a mask on and then put the mask on to go to the loo, you’re breathing out a lot more virus into the room over time without a mask at your desk than if you had a mask on at your desk,

@boys3

but taking a more optimistic look these are the 25 MSOAs with the highest rates 2 wks ago. Many still with high rates but most moving in the right direction. First column is how their rate ranks relative to others , and second how they ranked two weeks ago.

Interesting. Can't speak for Leeds but certainly Durham city, north jesmond and Sandyford are high density student areas. Jesmond especially has big rental houses of 6-8 bedrooms. Some streets now have no residents left. I imagine a few weeks again was house move change overs etc.

So either they've all caught it or some have moved and gone home.

I know NE Lincs has come up before but it seems so isolated in the table above (as indeed it is in real life!). What's in Yarborough?

Hyde Park is studenty Leeds.

@Reastie

Long time lurker. Could anyone knowing the actual stats/facts answer a question I’ve been pondering?

If you don’t wear a mask indoors and have covid (knowingly or unknowingly), presumably you breathe out the virus into the air every time you breathe. So, in my head, the virus is then out there in the air in a much higher level than if the mask had been kept on. Putting a mask on to get closer to people would help mitigate the risk when close, but if you’ve been, say, sitting at your desk without a mask on and then put the mask on to go to the loo, you’re breathing out a lot more virus into the room over time without a mask at your desk than if you had a mask on at your desk,

You're right that you will have expelled more virus, but the inhalation risk changes for others in the office. Droplets have light weight and therefore gradually fall, so if you're sitting down they are less likely to infect someone standing up (unless your ventilation pushes air up through floor vents, but that's fairly rare). The standing person's droplets however are more likely to affect the sitting person. If you have lots of people with virus, coughing, erratic airflow, poor mask wearing etc... then there will be more potential to inhale enough virus to get infected. Certain people also expel more virus than others and become superspreaders, while others infect few / nobody; this may be physiological or just based on having a louder voice and talking a lot more. Recent human trials should show how much virus is an infectious dose, it certainly seems to be lower in each wave so far, possibly very low for Delta.

@Piggywaspushed

I know NE Lincs has come up before but it seems so isolated in the table above (as indeed it is in real life!). What's in Yarborough?

Grimsby does a huge amount of fishing and fish delivery in London always seems to come from there. As it's a cold activity, maybe fish processing of some sort?

Thank you @MRex.

@JanFebAnyMonth

Boys, thanks for all that work!

Could you kindly explain to a non-mathmo/ -scientist what the scatter graphs tell us? I understand what they plot, but not what the point of them is - if that doesn’t sound too rude!

Thank you 😊

@JanFebAnyMonth seriously late in the evening warmed by a glass of wine, still trying to process the denouement of Love Island you expect graphs that make sense?

The final two were about the relationship, maintaining the Love Island theme, of most and least deprived 10% vs cases; and then taking those with the absolute highest and lowest current rates to determine any relationship. Possibly both more in the Friend Zone, and definitely need a different way of presenting the data. Median age in MSOA I would expect to play a significant role, so would have been good to have built in. I think they give some food for thought, but of a quality not wholly dissimilar to Toby’s melon presentation.