Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 11th JULY

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
List of useful data links below. Suggestions for additions, and indeed deletions, always welcome.
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

which by a process of elimination must leave

Kingston upon Thames
Westminster
Sutton
Bromley
Havering
Camden
Bexley
City of London

@NannyAndJohn

Interesting, yet sobering, interview here with Prof. John Edmunds of SAGE:

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/early-winter-predicted-as-freedom-lets-other-viruses-spread-30p0f6jqq

Edmunds told Times Radio that it would be “quite a difficult few months — we have really high levels of infection, we really do . . . and I think this is going to go on for a long time”.

“I think it will be much more prolonged. Previous waves have been stopped by lockdowns and there's no plan to do that, of course. So this is just going to go for some considerable time”.

“And cases and hospitalisations and deaths are going up. And we’ll be at the point of putting the NHS under strain.”

The message from the media - so presumably the Govt - has changed dramatically in the last couple of days. Now seems to be much more talking of a brief window of opportunity to release and enjoy some freedoms (and economic activity) over the summer, with restrictions likely to be reintroduced later in the year. Realism seems to be creeping in.

[quote lonelyplanet]The zoe app has updated its methodology. It is now more in line with the ons data.

covid.joinzoe.com/post/covid-estimates-updated-vaccine[/quote]
Their numbers are making a bit more sense now. They were running at around half the official case rate here. They're still only about 10% higher than the official case rate though so I think they're probably still underestimating by a large amount.

Here's a non paywall story on the John Edmunds interview with video.

www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/covid-combine-viruses-winter-comes-24574700

So John Edmunds seems to be saying that we shouldn't lift restrictions as the population now has limited immunity to other respiratory/close contact illness, 'if we lift the restrictions you allow everything else to spread as well'.

But that's always going to be the case. Does he expect that if we stay locked down for months more, with all the damage that does, suddenly Covid and all our familiar illnesses will just disappear?

Surely the other illnesses issue argues the other way - that it's better to lift restrictions as sooner rather than later, while as much immunity to other illnesses as possible remains, plus at a time of year when we are spending more time out of doors.

The Zoe app is now collating data on being 'pinged' and having the app, so will be interesting to see their results

John Edmunds has always been advocating for stricter measures so his interview is not a surprise. At times he was right, at times (e.g. in May 2020) he was wrong.

Generally different SAGE members will have different views which is entirely normal. An effective advisory council is expected to encourage diversity of thought and healthy debate. I really liked MRex's parallel to Bank of England and between doves and hawks.

'The zoe app has updated its methodology. It is now more in line with the ons data.'

Hmm so cases in the unvaccinated had not peaked at all. It seemed pretty obvious to me 2 weeks ago. I am not sure why Tim Spector did not see this earlier and kept saying we were at the peak, it was clear that less unvaccinated would be in their dataset.

Have I got my calculations right here? If I have it seems the doubling time has slowed dramatically over the last couple of weeks.

looking at the government website and the weekly rates (England only I'll admit but daily numbers for UK as a whole bare out the same calculation). As of yesterday 7 day rate was 315456, half that is 157728. Looking back that number near enough corresponds to 30/6, it's now the 22nd, so current doubling time (in England) is 20-21 days.

Do you think based on this that we’ll reach 100k by beginning of august or more likely middle … or we won’t.?
21-22 is nearly a month and the last few days we’ve been around 35-40k haven’t we?

I think the end of term will have a significant impact on the figures - as it has in Scotland, who break up earlier. Whether it will slow the rate of growth, or actually reduce the numbers, is yet to be seen.

@EasterIssland

Do you think based on this that we’ll reach 100k by beginning of august or more likely middle … or we won’t.? 21-22 is nearly a month and the last few days we’ve been around 35-40k haven’t we?

I'm not sure, growth has definitely been slowing over the last couple weeks with an increase yesterday of 1802 or 4.3% on the same day last week. Which compares to an increase of 9754 or 29% on the Wednesday before. I think the next couple days will give a better idea of whether numbers are truly stabilising, Thursday/Friday have historically seen the biggest jumps, but there again there will probably a lot fewer lfts being taken now that school terms are ending.

I do think we may see a jump due to nightclubs etc opening, although I can also imagine that as that cohort are much less likely to be seriously affected (if at all) they are also less likely to test. Anecdotally the only people I know who have tested positive in this wave only actually tested because they had been in contact with a positive case and had hay-fever symptoms. Makes me wonder though, because a few people I know (including myself) have had horrendous bouts of hay-fever over the last couple of weeks, have had negative lots, and haven't bothered with PCRs because our antihistamines have helped with the symptoms.

@Whatever9999

I do think we may see a jump due to nightclubs etc opening, although I can also imagine that as that cohort are much less likely to be seriously affected (if at all) they are also less likely to test. Anecdotally the only people I know who have tested positive in this wave only actually tested because they had been in contact with a positive case and had hay-fever symptoms. Makes me wonder though, because a few people I know (including myself) have had horrendous bouts of hay-fever over the last couple of weeks, have had negative lots, and haven't bothered with PCRs because our antihistamines have helped with the symptoms.

I had a bad hay fever over the weekend. Took 6 lft all negative and 1 pcr as well. However , I’ve mainly done it because I’m meant to fly this weekend. If it was hayfever symptoms I’d have carried on like I’ve done in the last month as it was mainly sneezes and eyes

We just had a delta wave locally, took out 7 children and a teacher in our year group at primary school.
Most of the children presented with tiredness , sore eyes and fever, not "colds".

I know of at least 4 fully vaccinated adults (including myself) who have caught covid from these infected children. Presenting as a heavy head cold. Both Pfizer and AZ. Well past 3 weeks post 2nd vacc and I had a positive antibody test a week before getting ill as well.

Anecdotally from observing this cluster, the vaccines are offering way less than 80 percent protection - where you are nursing a sick child. Maybe 80 percent protection from casual contact or sitting next to someone in a cafe?

AvaCallanach. Anecdotally though, if you and your friends are C+ and presenting with heavy colds, then your vaccines are 100% effective at preventing severe illness or death.

Yes they are. But it worries me a bit that vaccinated people won't have to isolate soon, because as far as I can see we have a 50 percent chance of getting it and presumably can still pass it on.

Current hospitalisation data against SAGE projections.

We're currently running above their worst case scenario. A worst case scenario that peaks at over 10000 admissions a day.

@NannyAndJohn

Current hospitalisation data against SAGE projections.

We're currently running above their worst case scenario. A worst case scenario that peaks at over 10000 admissions a day.

are we? looking at the pic it's more to me the 1.8k/2.1k one

Is this going to be the new 100k cases a day now?

We are currently running slightly below the "optimistic" scenario laid out by SAGE.

To be honest that is less than 10% out. They are only scientists not soothsayers...

@Bordois

Is this going to be the new 100k cases a day now?

Also re 100k cases a day, it's still quite possible for that (and more cases) to happen, though let's hope it doesn't

@NannyAndJohn

Current hospitalisation data against SAGE projections.

We're currently running above their worst case scenario. A worst case scenario that peaks at over 10000 admissions a day.

Why do you revel in such misery?

Also re 100k cases a day, it's still quite possible for that (and more cases) to happen, though let's hope it doesn't

It is possible, most think its likely to get there at some point in August. But it didn't happen in either of the timescales nanny kept insisting it would happen in.