Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 11th JULY

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
List of useful data links below. Suggestions for additions, and indeed deletions, always welcome.
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

@NannyAndJohn

It's the second graph in the tweet you linked to.

Shows exponential growth.

Well yes because deaths part of the exponential function of cases. As cases grow so do deaths. It is thedependent variable to the independent variable of cases

But what is shows is that the ratio is less than it was before - it will still grow at the same rate as cases.

@Bordois

Looking at today's reported cases it looks as if Scotland is well on its way down the hill, Wales may have just got over the peak and NI are having a last burst to get to the top.

I'm hoping that England are just having a nice sit down at the summit before heading back down.

I imagine that schools closing will give a temporary respite, to resume in September (but with less detection, I suspect, leading to an appearance of fewer cases).

"40% of UK hospitalisations are vaccinated" is good, in an image.
The age distribution of who we've given vaccines to suggests that if they didn't work, ~90% hospitalisations would be vaccinated.
Actual figures imply that vaccines stopped ~92% of recipients ending up in hospital.

via @PaulMainwood

and another one from @oliverjohnson,

So maybe here's the right graph, with beds occupied growing exponentially? It was surprising to be reminded how low beds were when we went into Lockdown 2 - under 10,000. (LD2, LD3 = level when lockdown started, T4 = London Tier 4)

Admission MedspeakUK

(1) The point at which a person begins an episode of care—e.g., by arriving at an inpatient ward.
(2) The point at which a person enters hospital as a patient.

Not randos visiting a&e.

@Bordois

Looking at today's reported cases it looks as if Scotland is well on its way down the hill, Wales may have just got over the peak and NI are having a last burst to get to the top.

I'm hoping that England are just having a nice sit down at the summit before heading back down.

NI had a public holiday on 12th July, so I expect there will have been a lot of opportunity for spreading there and in band practices/lodge meetings/bonfires in the lead up to it, plus the increased socialisation.

This is also the traditional “twelfth fortnight” holidays when many factories/builders merchants etc. would have closed (although somewhat outdated now, many people from across the community still take it, because foreign holidays are a bit cheaper before most of the English schools close) so I think we can take around the 13th/14th as NI’s equivalent oEnglish Euro final and Scotland’s drop out night and hope that most transmissions occurred then and will start to fall very soon once secondary infections have been identified and flushed out etc.

Yeah I was wondering if 12th July would have any bearing on the surge in NI

@EasterIssland

and another one from *@oliverjohnson*,

So maybe here's the right graph, with beds occupied growing exponentially? It was surprising to be reminded how low beds were when we went into Lockdown 2 - under 10,000. (LD2, LD3 = level when lockdown started, T4 = London Tier 4)

So that is a bad news graph?

CQC has published data on deaths in care homes www.cqc.org.uk/news/releases/care-quality-commission-publishes-data-showing-death-notifications-involving-covid-19

Link in first paragraph. Can be filtered by region/LA.

Some stark figures. One home in Staffordshire (classified as medium, so 11-49 registered beds) had 31 deaths in Q4 having made it through April - December with none.

@EasterIssland

and another one from *@oliverjohnson*,

So maybe here's the right graph, with beds occupied growing exponentially? It was surprising to be reminded how low beds were when we went into Lockdown 2 - under 10,000. (LD2, LD3 = level when lockdown started, T4 = London Tier 4)

So we're set to exceed the levels that lead to previous lockdowns, and the government aren't going to do anything about it.

Now what could have changed between now the last lockdown and now…

Does anyone know what happens with regards to positive private PCR tests for travel - presumably they are counted in the stats at some point? There have been a number of asymptomatic cases picked up by PCR travel tests amongst my DCs school friends and their parents.

@BunsyGirl

Does anyone know what happens with regards to positive private PCR tests for travel - presumably they are counted in the stats at some point? There have been a number of asymptomatic cases picked up by PCR travel tests amongst my DCs school friends and their parents.

As a notifiable disease, there is a legal obligation for it to be confirmed.

@BunsyGirl

Does anyone know what happens with regards to positive private PCR tests for travel - presumably they are counted in the stats at some point? There have been a number of asymptomatic cases picked up by PCR travel tests amongst my DCs school friends and their parents.

Depends where you are - my test provider notifies Public Heath England of positive tests, but if you’re in Scotland you need to take a further PCR test from NHS Scotland apparently which seems unnecessary use of a second test

www.expresstest.co.uk/after-your-test/

I was wondering what happens with positive tests picked up by ONS where the person then goes on to have symptoms and therefore takes a PCR?

Eg Day 1, ONS test picks up pre-symptom positive. But ONS tests take about 4 days to get back the results, so Day 2, symptoms, PCR test, also positive.

Won’t be a huge number but now that cases are rising it won’t be small either!

@EasterIssland

"40% of UK hospitalisations are vaccinated" is good, in an image. The age distribution of who we've given vaccines to suggests that if they didn't work, ~90% hospitalisations would be vaccinated. Actual figures imply that vaccines stopped ~92% of recipients ending up in hospital.

via @PaulMainwood

This is very useful thanks

@Pleasedontputthatthere

Now what could have changed between now the last lockdown and now…

the weather def! I cant remember being in a pool back in January ;)

@MRex and @lurker101 Thank you.

The zoe app has updated its methodology. It is now more in line with the ons data.

covid.joinzoe.com/post/covid-estimates-updated-vaccine

As well as schools and the football finishing earlier in Scotland, we didn't get Freedom Day. Masks are still required, night clubs aren't open, there are still restrictions in the size of groups meeting inside and out. Much like NI loads of people go on holiday in July, so not only are schools shut, but lots of adults are on annual leave. The next potential loosening of restrictions is August 9th and most schools back by 18th. Will be interesting to see the differences and changes in the rates between Scotland and England.

Interesting, yet sobering, interview here with Prof. John Edmunds of SAGE:

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/early-winter-predicted-as-freedom-lets-other-viruses-spread-30p0f6jqq

Edmunds told Times Radio that it would be “quite a difficult few months — we have really high levels of infection, we really do . . . and I think this is going to go on for a long time”.

“I think it will be much more prolonged. Previous waves have been stopped by lockdowns and there's no plan to do that, of course. So this is just going to go for some considerable time”.

“And cases and hospitalisations and deaths are going up. And we’ll be at the point of putting the NHS under strain.”

a few have noted that the overall vaccine uptake at the national level will be based on the fairly recently released ONS mid 2020 based population estimates. Which are not hugely different from the 2019 based ones, aside a lot of 75-79 year olds being found in England at least.

As NIMS is used for pretty much everything apart from the overall nation calculations; here's a quick comparison at English region level between NIMS and ONS 2020 for each age band and overall.

By band it therefore shows:
NIMS population figure
ONS 2020 population figure
Absolute gap (NIMS minus ONS)
Percentage gap

As London stands out like a sore thumb, a borough breakdown at overall population and by the younger age bands will also follow.

London Boroughs sorted by the biggest percentage difference at the overall population level first.

The first table therefore starts with Hammersmith and Fulham followed by

Ealing
Brent
Hounslow
Kensington and Chelsea
Wandsworth
Merton
Lambeth
Newham

Haringey
Harrow
Southwark
Waltham Forest
Hackney
Richmond upon Thames
Redbridge
Tower Hamlets

Barking and Dagenham
Croydon
Hillingdon
Lewisham
Barnet
Islington
Greenwich
Enfield