Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 11th JULY

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
List of useful data links below. Suggestions for additions, and indeed deletions, always welcome.
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

East Midlands 1 of 2; Leicester gain does not make it onto the highest rates East Mids table. Good news for Leicester after all it has been through.

East Midlands 2 of 2

East of England 1 of 2

East of England 2 of 2

@MRex

Posted by *@Fizziwater* in the Good News thread, this report is very interesting about antibody levels in the Virus Watch trials: ucl-virus-watch.net/?page_id=1234#3. (*@boys3* - could we save the general link on the next thread OP please, as could be good to check weekly?)

if I start the next thread it will be there.

Surprised we've not had any data and projections around past thread durations; and likely future durations; greatest number of posts in a single day; the appearance of anyfucker's first .

Important stuff :)

Regulus, the latest DfE guidance states that schools will not provide LFDs for the holidays. That’s what I was referring to, sorry.

almost forgot London; Inner London Boroughs

Outer London Boroughs

Not sure if these really work or not.

2nd Dose by age band, sorted by region low to high, with the England 2nd dose rate for the age band shown as a horizontal line. London obviously stands out - and has a fair bit of variation.

Based on the detailed NHS file released last Thursday, so not 100% uptodate by any means; but given the levels of jabs at the moment the shape of each region relative to others has probably not materially changed.

This is 18-24s, with the y axis top end 35%

25-29s ; y-axis runs to 40%

30-34s ; y-axis runs to 50%

35-39s y-axis runs to 60%

40-44s y-axis runs to 80%

and lastly 45-49s; y-axis runs to 85%

boys3 Thank you very much for the county tables - very useful. But I think there is still an issue with the North West 2 one - the table is the same as the one you posted for North West 1...?

I'm assuming that the double vaccination 'benefit' in older groups will improve over time, somewhat, e.g. many 40 year olds won't have full protection yet if they had AZ less than 4 weeks ago.

Round here (North West hotspot, schools are shut now for summer) I'd say the vast majority (80-90%) of people of all ages I've seen in shops etc. are still wearing masks. Let's hope people continue to be a bit careful everywhere and the trajectory of case numbers etc. does flatten, despite the legal requirement for SD being removed.

twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1417500969420591108?s=19
Oliver Johnson doesn't seem to think cases are flattening yet.

@EducatingArti

twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1417500969420591108?s=19 Oliver Johnson doesn't seem to think cases are flattening yet.

The deaths graph really isn't looking good.

boys3 Thank you very much for the county tables - very useful. But I think there is still an issue with the North West 2 one - the table is the same as the one you posted for North West 1...?

@moimichme for some region the NW2 table posted under the guise of both North West 1 and North West 2. well it comes from re-using file names, but let's not get into that

Here is the correct North West 1 of 2 (eg the half of NW council areas with the highest current rates).

Thanks boys. I wondered where Salford had got to.
@NannyAndJohn
Do you have a link for the death graphs?

It's the second graph in the tweet you linked to.

Shows exponential growth.

Do you have a link for the death graphs?

It is the second graph in the Oliver Johnson's twitter link.

Graphs from @RP131 on Twitter showing that, proportionately, death rate remains much lower than in previous waves.

Cases are rising and so deaths are rising and they will continue to do so until several weeks after cases level off I would have thought? I can't see why that wouldn't happen? The hope/intention, presumably, is that deaths as a proportion of cases remains low.

I fully agree Oliver Johnson's graph shows the entirely predictable picture. Most SAGE models seem to forecast that we will go up to 300-400 daily deaths for England only before the numbers start going down.

The same applies to hospitalisations - the England's number is very likely to reach 2,000 admissions. However, it would have been higher if we had tried to "re-open" in September. Higher vaccination rates do not appear to compensate for other headwinds (open schools, autumn weather).

Sorry, I missed the second graph.
Comforted somewhat by @Sunshinegirl82 s graphs of deaths vs those in last wave.

Looking at today's reported cases it looks as if Scotland is well on its way down the hill, Wales may have just got over the peak and NI are having a last burst to get to the top.

I'm hoping that England are just having a nice sit down at the summit before heading back down.