[quote BanditoShipman]@MRex why do you think cases will go down (after the dip post Euros, then rise for nightclubs)? Because schools are shut? Vaccinations? Just not sure I understand why they would go down when they’ve been going up and we’re now opening up nightclubs etc[/quote]
The only reason I suggested on a data thread that there will be a drop, is that I pattern spot and there have been reductions in specific MSOA that rose early; the path down is bumpy, but it still goes down. I highlighted the drop on 16th but @boys3 sees a different pattern in the percentages. We'll see in coming weeks.
Logic can have no dates attached unless it has detailed modelling, but there are logical reasons for drops. The wave will burn out, the only thing we don't know is when. The vast majority of recent cases have been in young people of nightclub age and secondary age; nightclubs are another vector for the same age group, but they were obviously mixing closely anyway so the impact will be there but small. Meanwhile we certainly have Euro transmission reduction, schools closed, vaccination immunity increasing and we know covid is seasonal where it does less well in summer especially with people outside more. Nudge effects of "cases are high, it's dangerous" should slow a good proportion of people from easing up too quickly. Transmission / infection from 4 weeks after second jab and previously infected individuals is expected to be low, and that means the available pool for infection is slightly reducing all the time. Some of whom would have otherwise been superspreaders.