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Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 11th JULY

999 replies

boys3 · 11/07/2021 11:25

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
List of useful data links below. Suggestions for additions, and indeed deletions, always welcome.
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

Our STUDIES Cornerwww.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

OP posts:
Thread gallery
160
wintertravel1980 · 19/07/2021 22:23

I wasn't discussing excess deaths but real deaths.

If we want to draw comparisons between different countries (e.g. UK and Namibia), we have no other mechanism but to look at excess deaths. We cannot use ONS numbers because we do not have the equivalent for Namibia (or any other country since everyone counts Covid deaths differently). As the Economist table shows, many countries massively understate their figures.

wintertravel1980 · 19/07/2021 22:25

I am sure, when we hit the 150k figure earlier this year, that there was an article in the Guardian saying that this was in fact an under-reporting, but I can't find it now.

That was also Guardian and Guardian is not always objective...

The Economist graph shows that we (i) underreported Covid deaths in the first wave (especially in care homes) and (ii) over reported Covid deaths in the second wave. On balance, we ended up with "over-reporting".

Bordois · 19/07/2021 22:26

@herecomesthsun

I am sure, when we hit the 150k figure earlier this year, that there was an article in the Guardian saying that this was in fact an under-reporting, but I can't find it now.
The 150k plus is where the death certificate mentions covid.

128k is deaths within 28 days of a positive test, so they are slightly different metrics.

herecomesthsun · 19/07/2021 22:30

well, many people with covid take more than 28 days to die, so that figure underestimates the true number

Although adopted to fit with practices in other countries if I remember correctly

MRex · 19/07/2021 22:30

@herecomesthsun

I am sure, when we hit the 150k figure earlier this year, that there was an article in the Guardian saying that this was in fact an under-reporting, but I can't find it now.
It's tricky to balance missed covid deaths in early months with over-reported in later months, in each case because for the very elderly it's rare to do an autopsy and not all deaths were looked into. Another piece of the equation is that lockdown saves other lives in road traffic accidents etc, so UK excess deaths are lower than the total covid deaths. And then there are increased heart attacks and strokes; were these missed covid sudden effects, or people too scared to go to hospital, or ambulances too busy to help? Undiagnosed stage 4 cancer will come next.

The only way of finding a consistent figure is excess deaths.

Bordois · 19/07/2021 22:49

@herecomesthsun

well, many people with covid take more than 28 days to die, so that figure underestimates the true number

Although adopted to fit with practices in other countries if I remember correctly

That reminds me of something I meant to ask you guys on the other day... are patients in hospital with covid tested regularly? So if someone was admitted, tested postive for covid, deteriorated and then died 60 days later would they have been tested again within those 60 days and so come under the "within 28 dsys" heading?
WarriorN · 20/07/2021 05:59

Thanks for boots info, just booked.

This, if true, casts an interesting light on the events of last year.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jul/19/dominic-cummings-tells-bbc-that-pm-denied-covid-would-overwhelm-nhs?CMP=ShareiOSAppp_Other

WarriorN · 20/07/2021 06:07

Can some people have symptoms but a low viral load?

I can't remember if this was discussed a year ago.

MarshaBradyo · 20/07/2021 07:04

Oh my god Dominic Cummings

Cannot stand his voice anymore

‘Can’t see the Queen’

Failed to provide info to select committee and driven by revenge I agree with whoever said that

PatrickTheFox · 20/07/2021 08:51

The talk about Namibia (absolutely beautiful country) has reminded me of a few things I'm not sure lots of people in the UK think about. Not just in relation to Namibia (which isn't a poor or corrupt country but which is certainly poorer than European countries) but to southern Africa in general.

There is a lot of talk about donating vaccines to the developing world (which is good). But it doesn't end there. They need needles, jabbers, logistic help to roll everything out, preferably a single jab vaccine as lots of people have to travel big distances to get jabbed. They do not need to feel that the vaccines they are given are second rate - when Denmark, having decided AZ wasn't good enough for them and got their Pfizer doses and donated all their AZ doses to Kenya I'm sure they meant well. But I know that really made people in southern Africa worry there was something wrong with AZ and increased vaccine hesitancy. And when politicians call it a quasi effective vaccine for their own domestic political agenda I'm not sure they realise the world is listening and that this kind of talk costs lives.

It isn't just people and the economy suffering in those countries either - there is a lot of concern that the ability to conserve wildlife is being seriously hampered because of the collapse in tourism (most tourists are from UK, US, Europe and SA). Numbers vary wildly about what has happened to poaching numbers during the pandemic but locals think they have increased but that goods are either being stockpiled to sell when travel is easier or used for local consumption. Certainly, a lot of game parks are struggling to pay anti poachers, fix fences, pay staff etc. And the WHO (I'm not a fan but think they have a point here) is concerned that increased consumption of wild meat from poaching carries a risk of virus spread from animals to humans which we can all do without.

Completely agree with @wintertravel1980 that you need to look at excess deaths (and remember this is always what Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance said at those early press conferences where they used to have those awful "league table" graphs showing the cases and deaths in different European countries). Otherwise you aren't comparing like for like. Even countries which under report (eg South Africa) are watching excess deaths. It isn't that they are under reporting for some sinister reason but they have limited tests, a lot of people who die in rural places simply get buried with no test, no autopsy.

@MarshaBradyo - completely agree re Dominic Cummings. If he has always known the PM is so useless and awful why on earth did he help get him elected??? If that is true it reflects rather badly on DC.

Piggywaspushed · 20/07/2021 10:05

It is very easy to dismiss or ignore what someone says, though, based on the quality of their character. This is why Johnson himself smears people and says Starmer is a 'lawyer' all the time.

Because DC is a weasel does not mean BJ isn't a toad. I think DC would fully admit this. Helping people get elected was literally his job. Not lying or deceiving or misleading and serving the country is Boris Johnson's.

Anywya, not data,

Regulus · 20/07/2021 10:14

If he has always known the PM is so useless and awful why on earth did he help get him elected??? If that is true it reflects rather badly on DC

Not really, it was his job, I don't think badly of my friends husband because he defends rapists and murderers, I'm sure he has helped guilty people walk free but he was doing his job.

MarshaBradyo · 20/07/2021 10:14

What I think re Cummings probably isn’t right for data thread but have found other to say it.

Shame he doesn’t actually work with select committee but has to do this WhatsApp bomb business.

There is no doubt lockdown is nuclear move and last resort. It will get unpicked in enquiry I don’t need shoddy Cummings to do it.

Bordois · 20/07/2021 10:19

Dom may be telling (a version of) the truth that paints him in a better light but that doesn't preclude him from being a weasally lying backstabber either. Smacks of him getting his preferred narrative out there ready for when the shit hits the fan in a couple of years.

Quartz2208 · 20/07/2021 10:21

It is fascinating though to watch a narcissist unpick it all and skew it so that he was 100% right and everyone else was wrong though.

I suspect what he says is true just that he has reconned his part so he is the hero of the piece rather than a complicit player

PatrickTheFox · 20/07/2021 10:34

OK, this is last non-data thing I'll say on DC. @Regulus - no, you shouldn't think badly of your friend's husband. His job isn't to get murderers and rapists off - his job is to make sure that everyone gets a fair trial and the prosecution is doing it's job. Which is very admirable.

@Piggywaspushed - of course it is possible both DC and BJ are awful. My point is more that he isn't helping. Of course the identity of the messenger is important - if the messenger is not well respected the message is dismissed. A lot of what Donald Trump said (eg why do we insist on worker rights in UK but China gets away with selling us stuff made by children?) was spot on, it got dismissed because Donald Trump was the one saying it. I think DC should give evidence to Parliament and go away.

I promise to go away now and do some work and stop cluttering up data thread.

MarshaBradyo · 20/07/2021 10:39

The other factor is the short earlier lockdown which was the other consideration didn’t do much for Wales.

The Kent variant briefing from Nervtag which did trigger lockdown was in Dec and acted on,

The scale of the issue meant short / early wasn’t as useful either.

amicissimma · 20/07/2021 10:51

I'm surprised at people saying that Covid deaths in care homes were under reported in the early days. Before Covid I spent a lot of time among the elderly and had contact with the Homes in which many lived. As the pandemic grew I heard of many distraught Care Home managers who were certain that there were no case in their establishment (only just over a third, 37%, were affected) and were struggling to stop doctors, from whom the requirement to visit had been removed, just putting Covid on the death certificate because it 'probably was'.

I know it's only anecdata and I apologise for bringing it onto a Data thread, but my impression was, that unless a lot of effort was put in to correct things, Covid was being put on many death certificates where there was no reason to believe that it was involved. And not many busy, anxious Care Home staff had time and energy to put into making sure that the diagnosis was correct every time.

I was also surprised at how many relatives were distressed by their loved ones being 'falsely accused' of having, and dying from, Covid. Even today I hear of people being upset because a loved one died of something completely different but, having picked up Covid in the course of dying, joined the stats.

sirfredfredgeorge · 20/07/2021 11:05

only just over a third, 37%, were affected

That paper is limited to a geographical region that was far from the typical, I don't think we can extend it to the whole country.

www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/covid-19-number-of-outbreaks-in-care-homes-management-information
Had outbreaks (more than 2 cases as per
www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-epidemiological-definitions-of-outbreaks-and-clusters/covid-19-epidemiological-definitions-of-outbreaks-and-clusters-in-particular-settings ) in over 50% of care homes in London and the North East/West by July 2020, with homes that only had single confirmed cases, I think we can be pretty sure the 37% is not reflected everywhere.

sirfredfredgeorge · 20/07/2021 11:13

I think all we can do now is wait and see what happens after today. I cannot believe how much discussion there is about masks while they are not going to change the overall trend of the pandemic

If the peak was the 15th, 'cos of Euros etc. then we'll get to have lots of graphs showing correlation of no mask restrictions etc. being positive for reducing cases.

I sort of want cases to rise, otherwise the narrative on restrictions gets harder for the future.

Piggywaspushed · 20/07/2021 11:30

An interesting thread here on data, its presentation and potential manipulation, kicked off (accidentally, probably!) by Javid and presenting how many different ways there are of reading the same thing:

twitter.com/sajidjavid/status/1417175759584735236

Quartz2208 · 20/07/2021 12:00

Interesting Piggywaspushed and highlights the problem I have always had to the idea of following THE science and THE data in that data can be interpreted in many ways to follow any preconceived bias you have or any idea you want to follow

BanditoShipman · 20/07/2021 12:37

@sirfredfredgeorge

I think all we can do now is wait and see what happens after today. I cannot believe how much discussion there is about masks while they are not going to change the overall trend of the pandemic

If the peak was the 15th, 'cos of Euros etc. then we'll get to have lots of graphs showing correlation of no mask restrictions etc. being positive for reducing cases.

I sort of want cases to rise, otherwise the narrative on restrictions gets harder for the future.

Completely agree
JanFebAnyMonth · 20/07/2021 12:55

This week’s school attendance data.

www.tes.com/news/more-one-million-pupils-school-due-covid

Wonder why they’ve decided not to collect it this Thursday..... (many schools still open!):
www.tes.com/news/schools-not-asked-weeks-covid-attendance-data

MarshaBradyo · 20/07/2021 12:59

@sirfredfredgeorge

I think all we can do now is wait and see what happens after today. I cannot believe how much discussion there is about masks while they are not going to change the overall trend of the pandemic

If the peak was the 15th, 'cos of Euros etc. then we'll get to have lots of graphs showing correlation of no mask restrictions etc. being positive for reducing cases.

I sort of want cases to rise, otherwise the narrative on restrictions gets harder for the future.

Do you mean you’d like restrictions to be easier to implement?

I agree with quote re masks but really it’s also psychological at this point

Swipe left for the next trending thread