Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 11th JULY

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
List of useful data links below. Suggestions for additions, and indeed deletions, always welcome.
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

I dont think the Netherlands even took part in the Euros so not sure how they are relevant

However, I do not think we can contain Covid in an isolated age/social group without significant spillover into vulnerable population. We tried this argument several times and it failed again and again

No, but the government decided under recommnedations ffrom SAGE many months ago that all these people were going to get COVID. Given that, we want them to get it as soon as possible, because that does limit the risk to the vulnerable who are able to isolate themselves somewhat.

If the teenager you live with catches it, you're at a high risk of catching it, it doesn't matter if they're going to give it you today, or next month.

However if you a vulnerable person who meets people in groups (such as a teacher / lecturer etc.) then having fewer possible transmission events because all the group members have it at the same time is an advantage.

Also with isolation, actually having the people who are isolating have the virus is again beneficial, so super spreader events that are discovered are again beneficial.

It's not about isolating covid to groups, it's about getting the infections that have been accepted done quicker.

If we don't accept the infections, well we should've locked down months ago.

With regard to timing of flu jab, I would say this year all bets are off. Could just as easily have an early flu season, looking at the interaction of covid with other respiratory viruses.

What’s happening in Australia at the moment with flu?

MRex you asked about immunity to RSV. All I can say is my DS was one of a handful of children in the county who was so vulnerable he received RSV IgG injections for his first few years of life.

They were given monthly throughout winter as they wore off.

although of course that’s only antibodies and not TCell immunity which would be acquired naturally).

@Indigopearl thanks for that link, I was only thinking the other day I needed to put a reminder on my phone to get booked in when appointments opened up for flu jabs. I didn’t realise boots would book so far ahead (although they are on the expensive end if anyone is paying privately £14 something)

when would you open them and to what benefit?

Yes, I would wait until the next spring. I would open everything else - theatres, outdoor sports events, etc.

The problem with the nightclubs is that they may significantly accelerate the spread and make the exit/summer wave unmanageable. We may end up with 10,000 of daily hospital admissions over a shorter period of time instead of 2,000 over several weeks and this may make a big difference for healthcare capacity.

I do not debate the strategy itself - in my personal opinion, we will have to go through the exit wave whether we like it or not. Even if we lockdown again, we will be back to square one in a few months time. Zero Covid is not going to happen with Delta and at the current stage of the pandemic.

@sirfredfredgeorge

However, I do not think we can contain Covid in an isolated age/social group without significant spillover into vulnerable population. We tried this argument several times and it failed again and again

No, but the government decided under recommnedations ffrom SAGE many months ago that all these people were going to get COVID. Given that, we want them to get it as soon as possible, because that does limit the risk to the vulnerable who are able to isolate themselves somewhat.

If the teenager you live with catches it, you're at a high risk of catching it, it doesn't matter if they're going to give it you today, or next month.

However if you a vulnerable person who meets people in groups (such as a teacher / lecturer etc.) then having fewer possible transmission events because all the group members have it at the same time is an advantage.

Also with isolation, actually having the people who are isolating have the virus is again beneficial, so super spreader events that are discovered are again beneficial.

It's not about isolating covid to groups, it's about getting the infections that have been accepted done quicker.

If we don't accept the infections, well we should've locked down months ago.

This

I think the strategy is such that there’s a bit of lag in changing direction

If you go into any space you are better off to be around people who have had it at once and are now immune

This can last over winter

I appreciate it’s completely different to keep cases low and stop super spreader but above makes sense to me

Yes, I would wait until the next spring

I find this hard to take and it has zero impact on me. Every age group bar the near lowest risk gets activity relevant to them.

I understand your concern about numbers. It’s a risk I think it will be close but maybe doable.

I dont think the Netherlands even took part in the Euros so not sure how they are relevant

They did, they played, and hosted games.

Given that, we want them to get it as soon as possible, because that does limit the risk to the vulnerable who are able to isolate themselves somewhat

But are they?

I was looking at Covid prevalence in different age groups and, as a general matter, this summer infections in over 60s consistently equalled to 16-20% of infections in younger age groups. For instance, according to the government dashboard, the latest reported 7-day rolling prevalence numbers for England are:

• 85.5 - for over 60s
• 497 - for 0-59 year olds.

If 497 goes to 3,000, prevalence in over 60s is highly unlikely to stay at 85.5. Based on my back of the envelope calculations, it will jump to 480-600. These levels will almost certainly overwhelm NHS.

I know this isnt probably the place to post this but was worried about posting somewhere that the anxious may see this and make them feel worse. I was wondering if this is something to be concerened about?

www.government-online.net/westminster-city-council-tender-for-temporary-body-storage-services/

@Jenasaurus
www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-body-storage-idUSL2N2O6230

@sirfredfredgeorge

I dont think the Netherlands even took part in the Euros so not sure how they are relevant

They did, they played, and hosted games.

I stand corrected (didn't watch many of the games)! But I'm still not sure how it relates to my questioning if todays low numbers are as a result of the last England game being 8 days ago.

Another illustration of my point is North East numbers.

The Independent Sage members made a big fuss around a potential "new vaccine escaping variant in North East". They argued that the age distribution of NE cases is very different from the rest of the country. It might have looked convincing on the face of it - NE had a much higher prevalence of Covid in over 60s.

However, if we look at relative numbers, NE is not that different from other England's region. The levels are:

• 227.6 - over 60s
• 1124.8 - 0-59s.

Over 60s are 20% of the younger age group.

I know I really should pay more attention when Boris is talking but did he just effectively announce vaccine passport requirement from September?

@Bordois

I dont think the Netherlands even took part in the Euros so not sure how they are relevant

I was just giving The Netherlands as an example because their data clearly shows the lag between an activity and the infections as a result of that activity. I am not saying our cases will go up 20 fold becuase of the football. I am just saying that the lag between the football and any resultant infections is likely to be around 2 weeks.

The Netherlands increase was thought to be related to nightclubs reopening.
www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/jemimamcevoy/2021/07/14/after-fivefold-jump-in-covid-cases-netherlands-is-ruing-nightlife-reopening/amp/

@boys3

I know I really should pay more attention when Boris is talking but did he just effectively announce vaccine passport requirement from September?

Not listening but interesting!

boys3 - yes, for nightclubs and "other places where large crowds gather" (whatever it means).

So it takes 2 weeks for people to test positive? Thought it was around 4 days currentl

Yep he did and no idea how it works with kids (I wouldn’t take my 13 year old to a nightclub obviously but quite like to be able to go to a pop concert with her again!

Netherlands spike only became noticeable in 2 weeks because they were starting from low case numbers. It is difficult to spot exponential growth at the very start.

Our situation is more comparable to Scotland's. Their numbers peaked in less than a week after Scotland had left the Euro cup.

[quote sirfredfredgeorge]@Jenasaurus
www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-body-storage-idUSL2N2O6230[/quote]
Thank you, this has helped put my mind at rest :)

@wintertravel1980

Netherlands spike only became noticeable in 2 weeks because they were starting from low case numbers. It is difficult to spot exponential growth at the very start.

Our situation is more comparable to Scotland's. Their numbers peaked in less than a week after Scotland had left the Euro cup.

This is kind of my point. The euros final game was a single event. Anyone who caught covid either at Wembley or in the pub that night is highly likely to have already tested postive if they've had it. Its not comparable to a general opening of everything and then a rise in cases 2 weeks later.

@boys3

I know I really should pay more attention when Boris is talking but did he just effectively announce vaccine passport requirement from September?

Oh I have mixed views about that!

The Liberal in me is against it, but when we only have 18k 1st doses yesterday then I think we need to do something.

I'm utterly spitting, there are millions of critically vulnerable people in the world desperate for a vaccine, and we're coercing healthy 17 year olds into it.

And it's not just the people who die in these countries, the lack of vaccines means they'll also need measures to stop the spread, piling on more pain and suffering from inability to work. But of course, they're not English, so huge numbers of this country don't give a shit about them.

[quote Indigopearl]I have booked my flu jab. Boots is already taking september bookings if anyone is interested.
www.boots.com/online/pharmacy-services/winter-flu-jab-services[/quote]
Thank you for this. Do you know if there needs to be a gap between Pfizer jab and flu jab and what this should be please. My eldest should get her 2nd Pfizer jab mid September (if there’s an 8 week gap between 1st & 2nd as per English guidelines). Can she have the flu jab in between? I’ve googled but it’s not clear as Pfizer say 21 days between 1st & 2nd dose so therefore suggest a gap of at least 14 days after 2nd Pfizer before having flu jab. But U.K. isn’t following Pfizer 21 day gap so I’m a bit unsure. I appreciate it about recognising side effects rather than any interactions being an issue. Any data anywhere else please? Thank you