Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 11th JULY

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
List of useful data links below. Suggestions for additions, and indeed deletions, always welcome.
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

This has the report about RSV etc for this winter

www.bbc.com/news/health-57837192

(Link in article)

From the linked article: "Early data suggests influenza A leads to an increased susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 and
more severe disease."
"There is also a concern that the large reduction in influenza transmission experienced in recent years may provide an ecological niche for a pandemic influenza strain that is antigenically distinct from previous strains to emerge. Pandemic preparedness plans for future pandemic threats, such as pandemic influenza, should be urgently
revised to plan for this possibility."

Can all sensible types please encourage everyone they know to get a flu jab this year! As for the other point, aaaaaaargh nooooooooo!!!!

I have booked my flu jab. Boots is already taking september bookings if anyone is interested.
www.boots.com/online/pharmacy-services/winter-flu-jab-services

Boots is already taking september bookings

September seems very early.

www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2018/08/new-acip-flu-vaccine-advice-brings-waning-protection-issue
he's seen a shift in recommendations about timing in recent years, away from a model of "as soon as possible," and more toward the end of autumn

I take your point but last year they had run out entirely by the time it was my turn so I am making sure I get one this year. Plus there is the supposed added benefit that the flu jabs boost to the immune system gives against covid.
www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/science/2021/jul/12/flu-jab-may-reduce-severe-effects-of-covid-suggests-study

@sirfredfredgeorge

Boots is already taking september bookings

September seems very early.

www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2018/08/new-acip-flu-vaccine-advice-brings-waning-protection-issue
he's seen a shift in recommendations about timing in recent years, away from a model of "as soon as possible," and more toward the end of autumn

To be fair that article from 2018 just shows that different people have different views on when is the best time.

Historically flu jabs have always started to be rolled out in September in the UK. If uptake is as high as least year plus Covid booster jabs to be given then its another mammoth task that I can't see the government wanting to delay by a couple of months.

If I get offered mine in September instead of having to wait until the end of January as happened this year then i'll take it.

Thanks @Indigopearl that’s me booked in!

Sub 40k today

Just under 40k cases today. Testing doesn't seem to be down (over 1m), so id that the euros effect coming to an end?

Surely the Euro effect hasn't kicked in yet?

It finished 8 days ago so anyone who had picked up the virus would have tested postive by now (or the majority anyway)?

The England's numbers for July 15th (by date of specimen) look terrible but there seems to be a drop after that.

Delta has got 4 days incubation period (according to PHE technical briefings) so July 15th certainly fits the Euro hypothesis.

I think all we can do now is wait and see what happens after today. I cannot believe how much discussion there is about masks while they are not going to change the overall trend of the pandemic. What I am concerned about is queues at nightclubs. I understand why young people are tired and cannot wait to get back to normal but out of all possible activities it is by far the riskiest. Closed schools are not going to compensate for that.

I should have clarified that Delta has got a median incubation period of 4 days.

I understand why young people are tired and cannot wait to get back to normal but out of all possible activities it is by far the riskiest

Riskiest for transmission, but also almost completely constrained to individuals at very, very low risk - so rapidly through them is possibly better overall than slowly through them.

If you are more vulnerable, and live with an night club frequenting youth, please encourage them to hook up and isolate themselves with some new person for a few weeks. Just remind them about other pandemics and take appropriate precautions!

Riskiest for transmission, but also almost completely constrained to individuals at very, very low risk - so rapidly through them is possibly better overall than slowly through them.

I agree. We pretty much need to do young adults then it will be schools

Daunting prospect no doubt but delaying and slowing doesn’t bring much benefit to that group alone

@Bordois

It finished 8 days ago so anyone who had picked up the virus would have tested postive by now (or the majority anyway)?

If you look at The Netherlands data it took a full 2 week from the reopening on the 26th June to the 10th July for the numbers to go up. They then went up 20 fold.

If you are more vulnerable, and live with an night club frequenting youth, please encourage them to hook up and isolate themselves with some new person for a few weeks.

I have never been worried about Covid at a personal level. However, I do not think we can contain Covid in an isolated age/social group without significant spillover into vulnerable population. We tried this argument several times and it failed again and again.

NIghtclubs/karaoke bars provide ideal settings for super spreader events. One index case might infect hundreds of others. We have seen recent examples in both Netherlands and Spain. Most other activities (outdoor sporting events, trampoline parks, softplays, restaurants and even pubs) appear much less risky.

Winter when would you open them and to what benefit?

Next Spring for example if you want to avoid Winter

Or another time

If all vulnerable are vaccinated what has to happen for us to be ok with spill over from nightclub age?

Thank you Indigopearl I’ve just booked me and DH in.

Netherlands, anyone?

It’s not the queuing at nightclubs we need to be worried about but the snogging!

And yes, we may expect young adults to get infected but if they all get Covid at the same time, it will trigger an inevitable and unmanageable wave in older and vulnerable groups.

We are back to "flattening the curve" and opening up potential super spreader settings will create a meaningful headwind for that.

Those who don’t want to open nightclubs now when do you?

@indigo but I'm talking about the euros finishing last week and how that may explain the drop in todays numbers.