Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 11th JULY

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
List of useful data links below. Suggestions for additions, and indeed deletions, always welcome.
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

@QueenStromba I do understand exponential growth. And no where have I said that as cases rise so do the others.

What I am saying is that showing a graph comparing waves in terms of growth where it is clear that as cases rises so will the others is fine. Comparing it on that to the first wave isn't because the numbers are different. Did we go into the first lockdown because of the growth in cases or because of the numbers in hospital.

It was the latter - which the current wave is different too.

I think it is a graph that if you look at it can make people believe we are in the same position as the first lockdown which simply isnt true

Some useful charts and graphics on vax:

What I've been trying to make sense of.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/19/are-enough-people-vaccinated-in-time-for-englands-freedom-day?CMP=ShareiOSAppp_Other

It's looking at the autumn-winter wave, not the spring one. The number of hospital admissions are the same rate as four days before tiers we're introduced (740, 10th of October). The number of patients in hospital are at the rate they were at the week before the tier system was announced (~4,000, 8th of October). Patients in ventilation beds are the same as when tiers we're announced (551, 14th of October). Deaths are mercifully lower (average of 27 per day in the week to the 16th) than then but we're still looking at numbers similar to late September when SAGE was already calling for a lockdown.

Do any of the "wait until more vaccinated" ever quantify their numbers?

i.e. vaccinating another 1 million people in N months will save Q lives ?
and particularly with doses being limited how many more lives would be saved if those vaccines were diverted to vulnerable people in other countries?

Personally,I think reopening of businesses where it's safe to do so is fine. We should strongly be supporting masks and social distancing. As it's a pandemic of an airborne respiratory disease.

It seems that vaccines can and do wear off after several months, though as far as I know the data on that is inconclusive. So that affects the number of people protected by vaccines.

Also, if we cannot achieve herd immunity through vaccines alone, increasing the overall number of people currently vaccinated will not lead to a magic figure at which we pop back to 2019 in terms of how we can organise things. Vaccines are still nonetheless a Very Good Thing in helping us lead a freer and safer existence, (but in the current situation mask in indoor crowded spaces remain sensible).

As regarding numbers, we have had a relatively high death toll, though other countries are catching us up now.

We have a climate that is a boon for respiratory illness and a relatively older, more overweight population, who have a relatively high rate of chronic illness complicating presentations.

It makes sense for us to get our population vaccinated given that we have had and are having a tough time with mortality in this pandemic, more so than many developing world countries.

I do think we should be supporting vaccines going to the developing world - as well.

@WarriorN

Some useful charts and graphics on vax:

What I've been trying to make sense of.

[[https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/19/are-enough-people-vaccinated-in-time-for-englands-freedom-day?CMP=Share]]iOSAppp_Other

"She [Christina Patel] suggests a different target: that before England unlocks all adults and over-12s should be offered two doses, not just one. “We should wait until at least we’ve finished our primary vaccination programme and offered two doses to adolescents too,” she says."

Realistically this takes us into autumn with school term underway, which is a much worse time to allow cases to rise. I can see why there's an argument either way, but autumn seems like the worse option to me.

Pagel!! Not Patel, auto-incorrect

One issue with waiting until more people are vaccinated is possibly because the demographic of unvaccinated people are broadly the same as those who are currently more likely to have/had covid.

If vaccination is to be delayed by 28 days post positive test, then maybe those age groups were/are not as 'reluctant' as the press keep telling us, but waiting until their 28 days is up.

Apologies, not data, but being discussed currently on BBC.

The outcomes won’t be different for those vaccinated

But everyone getting it at once is the difficult part

School firebreak helps a bit to spread it out- not the dc but those they are in contact with

@MarshaBradyo

The outcomes won’t be different for those vaccinated

But everyone getting it at once is the difficult part

School firebreak helps a bit to spread it out- not the dc but those they are in contact with

Of course there is an improvement in outcomes overall for vaccinated people as a bloc - did you mean to write that?

I meant that an individual’s outcome won’t change from now or if it’s delayed

But yes it’s great we have high uptake that is key

It’s more a discussion around impact of delay I did post quickly though

The issue to balance unlocking and vax against is the other viruses. Some have started already, a vomiting bug and others.

These will also cause issues in the autumn/ winter for hospitals, I don't know the differences between those starting up now and in the autumn but school going back and then more indoor stuff as the weather gets colder certainly fans the flames. I can't remember where I saw a discussion of that. (BBC or other.)

We've had RSV and Norovirus already rush through every nursery I have a friend with a child at, I'm hopeful that means this area is almost back to where it ought to be, virus-wise.

Yes same here!

Are these figures ( inner London Southwark,Newham,Lambeth ) re vaccine uptake worrying ? Be grateful for views .

62% of adults first dose of the vaccine to 15 Jul
39% have had the second dose

56% first dose of the vaccine to 15 Jul
36% have had the second dose

61% of adults first dose of the vaccine to 15 Jul
38% have had the second dose

Here's something for you to ponder...
DH has a repeat perscription for heart and BP meds.
This month the repeat includes his Covid Jab...

"COVID-19 Vaccine Astra Zeneca (ChaDoX1 S)
(recombinant]) 5x10,000,000 viral particles/0.5ml dose
solution for injection multidose vials (AstraZeneca UK Ltd) - 1
dose by intramuscular injection, 1 dose"

Anyone else seen this on their repeat? 🤔 (it's not on "Patient Access" so he can't order one with everything else next month by accident, thankfully)

@peridito I asked about London a few pages back. Relatively low vaccine uptake but not seeing the infection spikes seen in other places. Possible explanations - high rate of prior infection and younger population. I can’t remember what else was said!

I and a few I've spoken to locally don't think the NE really got the full force of second wave, or the first tbh. We also had some localised restrictions in the autumn and didn't get the Xmas wave as badly as other areas before the lockdown. So certainly the one in the NE is high in a medium vax area compared to London. London may have got a level of "immunity" at the moment.

thanks @GingerAndTheBiscuits I'll look back .

We've had RSV and Norovirus already rush through every nursery I have a friend with a child at, I'm hopeful that means this area is almost back to where it ought to be, virus-wise.

Does anyone have any stats on RSV risk? Is it something everyone gets and you're either hospitalised or not, so the delay concentrates those who get it into hospital, or is it that if you're old enough at first infection you're likely okay so there's little extra care required?

@sirfredfredgeorge

We've had RSV and Norovirus already rush through every nursery I have a friend with a child at, I'm hopeful that means this area is almost back to where it ought to be, virus-wise.

Does anyone have any stats on RSV risk? Is it something everyone gets and you're either hospitalised or not, so the delay concentrates those who get it into hospital, or is it that if you're old enough at first infection you're likely okay so there's little extra care required?

As I understand it, almost 100% of kids get RSV by age 2 for the first time, and the first infection is the worst. DS had bronchiolitis and the doctor said about half the kids get it. Babies with heart, lung or immune system issues are at greater risk. It causes a lot of hospital time not just because of those needing help, but because everyone with a very poorly little tyke calls 111, who then send them to hospital just in case because they're under 2yo. The only two I know who were kept in as babies both turn out to have asthma, but loads of people I know ended up in hospital "just to check" because the babies were wheezing. Because there was no RSV last year, it means this winter they were expecting double the little ones sent in; as it is they seem to have had that early. A mum at nursery had her baby go in some weeks ago and was told they've been very busy with RSV; DS and the rest of nursery had some mild snot so we presume that was the shared infection of the week but in round 2 all the bigger kids were fine.

My DH's uncle was hospitalised over the weekend with RSV. He developed flu like symptoms and had trouble breathing. We were all convinced it was Covid. It turned out to be a severe case of RSV.

He is a healthy and very fit 70 year old. He and his wife took Covid restrictions very seriously and completely stopped seeing people for nearly a year. They resumed normal lives after getting vaccinated.

Of course, it is a one off case and not data but it indicates that normal RSV dynamics might be completely messed up and the spread might no longer follow typical seasonal/demographics patterns.

If overall numbers aren’t reduced by much due to delay then it becomes even more about managing flow

To get hit from school contacts and peak seems unwise

And summer is the time to do this

I see so many talking about how bad it is and a failing but the strategy seems to make sense

That sounds unusual, frail elderly can be affected of course, but it could be awful if a lot more adults have lost some immunity to it.
I tried unsuccessfully to find out how long RSV immunity is supposed to last, it's all a bit uncertain, presumably because mild cases aren't tested and it's usually so prevalent that everyone comes across it. On the way, I found out 1 to 2 percentof infants below the age of 6 months with RSV will need to spend time in the hospital, while the mortality rate for older adults who get pneumonia is really bad (11-78%).