Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 11th JULY

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
List of useful data links below. Suggestions for additions, and indeed deletions, always welcome.
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

Thanks. I like him and his charts.

This is stark:
In the UK, where more than half the population has been fully vaccinated, the deaths-to-cases ratio has fallen from about one in 50 during the winter wave to one in 750. Despite UK daily case rates of more than 40,000 — a figure that before the vaccines rollout would have led to about 800 deaths a day — the current daily tally is about 50.

In contrast, Namibia, with only 1.2 per cent of the population vaccinated, is recording one death for every 22 cases. Namibia’s daily rate of 28 Covid deaths per 1m people is the highest in the world, and far above peak levels recorded in the UK and Italy.

Its just awful and puts the whole "everyone's laughing at the UK" comments to shame 😔

@MRex

Fewer than expected cases today against the curve; 48,161. It's the 16th that's thousands lower than it "should" be, so tests are lagging or we are seeing a stabilisation. The next week will show.

I'm not wholly convinced. The 16th (Friday) is only on its second day for having numbers reported - with none yet provided for Wales or NI; not that they would make a huge difference.

However as far as England goes there some seem to be a bit of a dip in the percentage of cases from day -1 or day -2 over weekend reporting - attached graph shows percentage of daily cases that relate to day-1 or day -2 , with the line showing the 7 day average.

That said today added 27,644 to the Friday total, taking the two day total to37431; last Sunday added 15,348 to Friday 9th total, which at the equivalent point had 21,653 cases. So after 2 days of reporting Friday 16th 73% up on the prior week.

The second graph shows the 7 day rolling average for cases in England, up to 16th July spec date, and the seven day percentage change.

As far as rates in MSOAs go (again this just relates to England); there have been some decent falls; but these largely wiped out by other areas rapidly increasing.

Across England 21.7% MSOAs showed a decline in rates; with the North West standing out with 1 in 3 showing a fall. 75% with an increasing rate; ranging from 63% in the North West to just past 80% in the East Midlands

Here are the regional graphs for MSOA movements; below the line rate has fallen, above it rate has increased. Th y-axis does vary by region; so no really big jumps in London, North West or South East; although a really big jump is a weekly increase of at least 600 cases per 100,000.

Here are the East Mids, East of England & London

North East, North West, South East

South West; West Midlands, Yorkshire & Humber

Thanks sirfred for linking John Burn-Murdoch’s Twitter etc. The lack of vaccinations across the world is horrifying!

His adage re England is worrying too & that graph! I thought the hospitalisations, ventilations & deaths weren’t following the previous lines at all. I’m quite confused when so many graphs show high cases for England but a low flat line for everything else yet these graphs seem to suggest we are following a similar trajectory to last year. Am I missing something?
He says…
‘To be clear, the Western world is not out of the woods yet either. In England, hospital & ICU admissions are now above the level where restrictions were introduced last year and continue to rise at the same rate as in previous waves. Tomorrow England completes its reopening.’

Within each region these are the 25 MSOAs with the highest rates within their region. Council area, MSOA name; rate per 100,000 for each of the last 4 wks, and finally overall rank against every MSOA in England.

Starting with the North East; where the 25th ranked in the region ranks 30th overall in England.

Something of a contrast for London Highest rate MSOA in the capital ranks 327th in England - still top 5%, but very different to the North East, 25th highest in London ranks 1265th, so just inside the highest 20% nationally.

Yorkshire and Humber

East Midlands

East of England

North West

South East, again highest ranked in the region is 432nd in England

South West

West Midlands

and finally a complete list of every MSOA with a suppressed figure in the most recent week.

I thought the hospitalisations, ventilations & deaths weren’t following the previous lines at all

@NotDonna in absolute number terms your thoughts are correct. I normally quite like JBM, although I do need to remember that at the end of day he is a journalist; one of the better ones usually. A bit of context might have been useful to go alongside the rate of growth point that he is, not unreasonably, making. Not enough characters on twitter presumably

@boys3 and @NotDonna I hate that graph (and things in the log scale) and I am not even sure what it is trying to say (thanks FT times)

I think it is showing that as cases rise so hospitalisations, ventilations and deaths which whatever happens is going to be the case. But the scale they use doesnt say that the ratio has changed so that less people are going in so we arent in terms of actual numbers at the same place at all.

At least I think so. Its not a useful graphic at all

[quote Quartz2208]**@boys3* and @NotDonna* I hate that graph (and things in the log scale) and I am not even sure what it is trying to say (thanks FT times)

I think it is showing that as cases rise so hospitalisations, ventilations and deaths which whatever happens is going to be the case. But the scale they use doesnt say that the ratio has changed so that less people are going in so we arent in terms of actual numbers at the same place at all.

At least I think so. Its not a useful graphic at all[/quote]
I think it's actually an excellent graph as it shows very clearly that the link between cases and hospitalisations, ICU admissions and death is not broken. It clearly shows that all metrics are in exponential growth which is easy to miss early on when just looking at the straight figures.

But that is just it @QueenStromba it doesn’t show that it has weakened by reducing the ratio

I'm sure everyone has seen all the graphs comparing the numbers from this wave and last wave which make it look like nobody is getting seriously ill anymore. These charts are an important balance to that.

But unless I am missing something they simply arent.

What they show (and please correct me if I am wrong) is that as Cases rise so do the others.

The ratio has dropped I think from around 10% to 2% but as the case numbers rise so are the others no matter what the ratio is.

Is it showing anything else? Because the log scale is such that it uses percentages rather than actual numers

It's really not the fault of the graphs if you don't understand exponential growth.