Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 11th JULY

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
List of useful data links below. Suggestions for additions, and indeed deletions, always welcome.
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

Tony Blair has just come out saying that he thinks over 12s should be offered a vaccine so it will probably be government policy within a fortnight

@NotDonna my son (in his 20s )had some trouble getting his vaccination because many centres only had AZ and the protocol is that younger people should have Pfizer .

Could that be a factor where you are ?

@Wakeupin2022, @MarshaBradyo, @MRex thanks for your replies re beta v delta - it will be interesting to see what happens here and in SA in terms of how the mutations do.

Don’t want to get side tracked on the public funding and independence issue. But I agree that just because something is funded by the government doesn’t mean the people providing the service are influenced by the government in carrying out their jobs. A good example is in legal aid - the government is paying the prosecutors to try and get a conviction while also paying the lawyers defending the accused. In this country this hasn’t led to public defenders being influenced by the government - they are fiercely independent. Of course, the government can influence how many public defenders there are, how much they get paid etc but they don’t get to have lawyers who will pander to them just because the government signs the pay cheque.

More seriously. Here is James Ward advocating for 12+ vaccination withe relevant data/modelling.
twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1413834989209272321?s=19

@JanFebAnyMonth

I do remember the JCVI member saying something quite political, maybe about 6 weeks ago, but can’t remember who or what. I was surprised, not in a good way.

Robert Dingwall. Very active on Twitter. If anything, he has become more transparent in his views.

I think he claimed membership of JCVI and then it was revealed he isn't a full member. He is on Nervtag,though.

Dingwall has his views, they aren't necessarily shared by all. People are happy enough when Sage members speak on all sides of the debate, I don't think it should matter of individuals express what they think. I think of it as similar to Bank of England deciding rates; we tend to know the hawks and doves, plus those who switch; presentation of multiple views is useful for decision-making. I might worry more about those who don't say where they stand.

To save people clicking on the Mail I'll copy the images below (link: www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-9796645/amp/The-pingdemic-debacle-lockdown-door-writes-PROFESSOR-DAVID-PATON.html?__twitter_impression=true), I found this linked by going through Dingwall's Twitter. It does look quite shocking.

Numbers isolating and how they were contacted

I think the reason why Dingwall's views bother me so much is his links to pressure groups and his orchestrating of open letters. I am assuming/hoping his views are balanced on various committees.

Re the pingdemic though : focusing on the pings is surely ignoring the fact that this means there are a hell of a lot of cases out there.

Re the pie chart. It somewhat disingenuously implies schoolchildren are part of the so called pingdemic.

@Piggywaspushed

Re the pingdemic though : focusing on the pings is surely ignoring the fact that this means there are a hell of a lot of cases out there.

Re the pie chart. It somewhat disingenuously implies schoolchildren are part of the so called pingdemic.

Well it also erroneously conflates being contacted by the app and being contract by test & Trace. But it's the Mail, so I don't expect clarity of thought. It's the proportion of 9 isolating per case that seems particularly high.

Do you think so? We aren't in lockdown now so 9 seems quite low to me. This may be coloured by the fact that I come into contact with 100s of people per day I suppose.

I only know one (adult) person who has been pinged within the last few weeks. Lots of sixth formers have but I am not 100% sure they are all being truthful.

It's an easy and popular solution and in the grand scheme of things not very expensive

I think surely the risk is that it could be expensive in health terms- if the myocarditis that is causing questions in the US is a bit more prevalent than thought, or hits the wrong demographic for media attention - then you increase the risk of vaccine hesitancy against vaccines which are actually efficacious, but the upside is pretty marginal, depending on "long covid".

Well yes, because of the cumulative effect. If one kid tests positive, then say you send 32 home from class plus their 3 family plus 5 mates outside school; call it 40 people. You expect some would catch it or we wouldn't bother; mostly people get symptoms on about day 5, so the same week and say they have 3 extra household members on average to isolate, to average 9 contacts that's an extra 5 people infected, so we have 55 people from 6 cases. We know household members are very likely to catch it, so we have index case plus 3 family members. We isolated 36 people to only find 2 cases. The next week would make those figures look even worse because any of those new cases have only met with family. (We have to ignore rule breakers having sleepovers on the basis that they won't be honest about rule breaking.)

We know household members are very likely to catch it

We do? I thought we had stats earlier in thread showing

(this may of course be an interpretation question of what "very likely" means.)

1.66; one infected case in a house of 4 therefore infects 2, and one of those two infects the last other.
(Paper for 1.66 is "Increased household transmission of COVID-19 cases associated with SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern B.1.617.2: a national case-control study", I can't see how to link it.)

1.66; one infected case in a house of 4 therefore infects 2, and one of those two infects the last other.

Doesn't this paper provide comparison with Alpha and 1.64 is the relative odds ratio? This is how I interpreted this analysis but I may be wrong:

khub.net/documents/135939561/405676950/Increased+Household+Transmission+of+COVID-19+Cases+-+national+case+study.pdf/7f7764fb-ecb0-da31-77b3-b1a8ef7be9aa

In other words, based on this paper, aren't household members of a Delta case 64% more likely to get infected than if it had been Alpha?

The estimated secondary attack raters for Delta are included in the PHE bi-weekly technical briefings. They have been continuously going down (which is partially explained by increased vaccination levels). Based on the latest numbers:

• The estimated SAR for household members is 10.9% (10.8% - 11.0%)
• The estimated SAR for other close contacts is 5.7% (5.5% - 5.9%)

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1001358/Variants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_18.pdf

(page 35)

Ah you're right, I've misunderstood and thought it was much higher.

Fewer than expected cases today against the curve; 48,161. It's the 16th that's thousands lower than it "should" be, so tests are lagging or we are seeing a stabilisation. The next week will show.

There are signs of decline in the lower rates of previously high MSOA in every region; this isn't test delay, it's an actual drop. Hopefully this is the football impact fading out.

When I was listening to Neil Ferguson this morning, saying “we’ll know this policy’s working when the numbers plateau and then start falling” - which, surely, is hardly it “working” if they’re as high as some predictions say - I wondered if he’d talk about it moving through hotspots, so one builds as another declines, and the national figures being the sum of lots of smaller epidemics, but he didn’t.

Also: Mon 1130am, R4 - a More or Less “Special” on the current figures and projections, isolations and vaccinations.

www.ft.com/content/fa4f248a-a476-491d-a5ce-f128360e9f24

Horrible numbers for so many places, even more positive than I thought for England on the CFR - I'm guessing though that it's more positive because we're actually identifying more cases as well as the advantages in the age of infection.

Can you screenshot please @sirfredfredgeorge? They seem to have removed the hack of being able to view the article via Google...

Ah, twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1416805508724502533 images in thread there too, and link in that tweet lets you through in an incognito window.

Kind of puts things into perspective really.