Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 11th JULY

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
List of useful data links below. Suggestions for additions, and indeed deletions, always welcome.
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

Once I saw a very politically motivated twitter feed from a JCVI member ( although he then rowed back from exactly what his role was) I understood better that they aren't a neutral apolitical body. MHRA have the regulatory powers and have approved vaccine. I think that is difficult to argue against. Parents are not being given the choice at the moment.

This is context for JCVI decision making

I haven’t looked recently and only scanned it but found it interesting

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/224864/JCVI_Code_of_Practice_revision_2013_-_final.pdf

publichealthmatters.blog.gov.uk/2020/12/02/the-roles-of-the-mhra-and-jcvi-in-covid-19-vaccines/

JVCI are independent. I would have actually thought it would be easier for the govt if they want to give vaccine to over 12's........

Independent, yes, but tied up with NICE who have not been above criticism for soem of the decisions they have made about medications over the years, particular where women /pregnant women and their treatment is concerned. Their decisions are often driven by cost effectiveness over anything else.

But I don't see how it's cost effective not to give over 12's the vaccine?

I guess we have to await the decision since HM Gov are lining them up to take the fall, as it were.

Cost effectiveness will be part of any decision it comes down to who should take it. JCVI or other

I doubt it’s the main issue for this given how much vaccine we’ve already bought up. More Pfizer arriving in Sept iirc

JVCI are independent

I wouldn't quite go that far, Wakeup - take a look at the membership, the vast majority of whom are publicly funded and therefore vulnerable to government influence:

www.gov.uk/government/groups/joint-committee-on-vaccination-and-immunisation

[quote Puzzledandpissedoff]JVCI are independent

I wouldn't quite go that far, Wakeup - take a look at the membership, the vast majority of whom are publicly funded and therefore vulnerable to government influence:

www.gov.uk/government/groups/joint-committee-on-vaccination-and-immunisation[/quote]
Do you mean employed by public sector?

Their salary won’t depend on decisions.

Or did you mean something else by publicly funded?

They'll all have day jobs at universities and hospitals which are publicly funded.

Do you mean employed by public sector?

Yes

Their salary won’t depend on decisions

Not in a strict, "You'll lose your job if your narrative doesn't please us" perhaps; it's more subtle than that, with preferment and other benefits going to those considered "sound" (ie: whose views and recommendations suit)

And I just realised I've said that on the thread that's mainly about stats

If anyone wants to ask for it to be deleted, feel free ...

@Puzzledandpissedoff

Do you mean employed by public sector?

Yes

Their salary won’t depend on decisions

Not in a strict, "You'll lose your job if your narrative doesn't please us" perhaps; it's more subtle than that, with preferment and other benefits going to those considered "sound" (ie: whose views and recommendations suit)

I very much doubt this. A university won’t react in that way they are not motivated to.

Public sector is more stable than private. Pay doesn’t fluctuate in same way as it would for owner of a business. Private has more motivation to take decisions that benefit.

If you think the likes of Imperial College won't bow to a bit of funding pressure then you're sorely mistaken.

I don’t think being publicly funded is evidence of a body not being independent? Otherwise you are saying no one in the public sector can act independently which is tbh extremely insulting.

It is also completely appropriate NICE considers cost effectiveness - that’s how publicly funded health systems work. I assume the JCVI considers many different factors, including impact of take up of other childhood vaccines which have clearer cost/benefit for children. Even supply constraint is a valid reason that should be taken into account.

I also agree that to allow parental choice over whether to vaccinate is the easier political choice ( parents in opinion polls seem for this, assists in reaching herd immunity).

Apologies this is not data and I don’t usually post but I find the automatic accusation of lack of independence ( and by virtue lack of integrity) just because a decision is something people disagree really distasteful.

@QueenStromba

If you think the likes of Imperial College won't bow to a bit of funding pressure then you're sorely mistaken.

Explain the process

You say no to vaccine and well hand you £1m

Is that what you’re thinking? Or something else

@Ilovecrumpets

I don’t think being publicly funded is evidence of a body not being independent? Otherwise you are saying no one in the public sector can act independently which is tbh extremely insulting.

It is also completely appropriate NICE considers cost effectiveness - that’s how publicly funded health systems work. I assume the JCVI considers many different factors, including impact of take up of other childhood vaccines which have clearer cost/benefit for children. Even supply constraint is a valid reason that should be taken into account.

I also agree that to allow parental choice over whether to vaccinate is the easier political choice ( parents in opinion polls seem for this, assists in reaching herd immunity).

Apologies this is not data and I don’t usually post but I find the automatic accusation of lack of independence ( and by virtue lack of integrity) just because a decision is something people disagree really distasteful.

To be fair, that isn't what I am suggesting. What would have been wise, though, was for members and associate members of JCVI not to share views about various things on Twitter, therefore undermining any sense of neutrality. The sooner the government explains this decision the better.

To be fair, that isn't what I am suggesting. What would have been wise, though, was for members and associate members of JCVI not to share views about various things on Twitter, therefore undermining any sense of neutrality. The sooner the government explains this decision the better.

I could say the same about many public sector workers, including some who work in the same profession as yourself.......

Well ,yes. I am astonished by what some teachers post on Twitter. Dig deeper and they are often no actually working for schools / LAs or the DfE and exercise very little influence on any policy anywhere. So there is a difference.

Unless someone can be explicit with process rather than vague posts pointing to dubious influence it sounds fanciful.

Looking at MHRA backgrounds there are public and private on there but people think JCVI is more suspect to funding influence. Why?

@Bordois

I see that children are now going to be offered the jab if they are vulnerable or live with a vulnerable person. Do we have any data on the number of 12+ in this category?

@bordois the article I read suggested only children (12+) who live with an immuno-compromised adult, so I imagine much smaller numbers than those who live with anyone in the CV/CEV category.

Even if there was political pressure - I would think it would go the other way and say yes to vaccinating over 12s.

It's an easy and popular solution and in the grand scheme of things not very expensive.

@QueenStromba

If you think the likes of Imperial College won't bow to a bit of funding pressure then you're sorely mistaken.

Errr yeah they won't. Unis are very very very transparent about where their money comes from. And are largely pretty anti-Gov as a sector so I really wouldn't worry that IC or anyone else can be bought.

I'm genuinely not trying to be evasive, Marsha, but it's a bit difficult when "influence" is a nebulous thing which doesn't always make the light of day

I really comes down to long experience of how the public service operates - no insult intended to those who work in it, just a simple recognition of how things are, and how the prizes are reserved for those who toe whatever today's line is

I had to smile about NICE "being concerned with cost effectiveness" though, especially when we have government ministers who've been found to have behaved illegally during Covid, and when the already-mentioned Dido - a woman who's failed at practically everything she's ever touched - was put in charge of T&T and now reportedly wants to head the NHS

Still, it makes sense in light of Hancock's infamous remark about "putting the cherry on Dido's cake" - a revealing slip he'd have done better not to make, like some other things

I do remember the JCVI member saying something quite political, maybe about 6 weeks ago, but can’t remember who or what. I was surprised, not in a good way.