Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 11th JULY

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
List of useful data links below. Suggestions for additions, and indeed deletions, always welcome.
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

Same here MRex, loads of post on social media giving details of walk ins and what vaccines are being given there.

My 16 year old has had Pfizer due to walk in centre

Incredibly easy.

Grammar/ missing words error, couple of months before second jabs. There's lots of walk ins.

But it's still recent. Immunity obviously is best after a few weeks post first and two post second.

Locally 70% have had their first.

I organised my second ASAP 8 weeks after my first as it let me. Many people I know were nervous to do so, colleagues offered early through work just after Easter mix of early 40s and 30s only had their second last week.

I'm basically saying there's a time delay in terms of best double jab immunity. An 18 yr old getting it today, with 8 weeks + 2 weeks post second jab = 10 weeks. There's a big race going on.

And there's a vaccine bus locally so no issue getting the jabs. And then Vaccine hesitancy is a different issue.

On cusp of 50% double vaccinated.

I see that children are now going to be offered the jab if they are vulnerable or live with a vulnerable person. Do we have any data on the number of 12+ in this category?

Makes sense, yes it takes time for immunity to build up: a couple of young colleagues plus girlfriends unfortunately got infected recently who are one jab in, though they thankfully all recovered within a week. On the positive side, that means % vaccinated doesn't yet directly translate to the additional immunity that will kick in over coming weeks and months.

Neil Ferguson was definitely squirming on Marr this morning about whether the government is pursuing some form of herd immunity via children. Basically, yes.

I don’t get why this is surprising though esp for under 12.

The vaccine was not an option

It wasn't about under 12s marsha. Many many children are over 12.

Well I’m not disagreeing with that yes there are children over 12

Did you mean only them?

Personally I think it would be good if vaccine was an option for 12 plus although accept JCVI have data etc

Although I’m glad to see Bordois post

@MarshaBradyo I’m wondering where you are to get your 16yo jabbed because my almost 18 year old has been turned away from every walk in place near us as ‘it’s not approved for under 18’s by JCVI’ Shes 4 weeks away from turning 18, she’s not going to physically change during that time but she won’t be double vaccinated before starting her new job in September, getting the tube etc. There’ll be other late birthday kids starting Uni who won’t be double vaccinated. I think they should be allowing all those born in 2003 the vaccine.

I have mixed views on vaccines for over 12.

If I had an over 12 and it was available I would probably let them get vaccine if they wish, but I really don't think it should be used because too many 'adults' fail to step up and get vaccine.

Was just listening to a Dr from City Hospital in Birmingham. She mentioned that most who are being admitted due to being unvaccinated. And also some who are admitted for other conditions and test positive for Covid.

For the unvaccinated, we really need to understand more. If they are young and have not had opportunity to be vaccinated then its really not their fault.

Birmingham has 47.2% fully vaccinated. They have actually been further ahead in age groups than my area (neighbouring county).

My county has 69.4% of people fully vaccinated (although does vary within county).

Is it really the unvaccinated youngsters that are the problem........

We do need a breakdown of ages of unvaccinated in hospital - do we have it?

If restrictions were remaining in place I’d be less concerned.

See Admissions sheets in July Monthly Covid file here for age of admissions: www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/

I am 3 weeks post 2nd jab but I booked as early as possible and then brought forward to 8 weeks.

A lot of local friends have had their 2nd jab in the last week or so. I would imagine there are still a few over 40s still waiting for the 8 week mark!

[quote NotDonna]@MarshaBradyo I’m wondering where you are to get your 16yo jabbed because my almost 18 year old has been turned away from every walk in place near us as ‘it’s not approved for under 18’s by JCVI’ Shes 4 weeks away from turning 18, she’s not going to physically change during that time but she won’t be double vaccinated before starting her new job in September, getting the tube etc. There’ll be other late birthday kids starting Uni who won’t be double vaccinated. I think they should be allowing all those born in 2003 the vaccine.[/quote]
NotDonna he was invited by text I think because of asthma treatment when young

I’m not sure how you’d get it otherwise

I’ve seen some strong language on here re vaccine over 12 in either direction. I think if JCVI approve we should accept decisions either way by parents

Latest data has us at early March admission levels (741) and late March numbers in hospital and in ventilation beds (3964, 551).

Thank MRex. I'll try and look later when not on phone.

I have a question about the beta (SA) variant and delta (India) variants which I’m hoping someone can answer. In SA beta was identified towards the end of last year and started to spread. However, the increase in cases in SA over the last few weeks is (according to their health minister) being driven by the delta variant which is now the most widespread in the country, replacing beta as the dominant strain. Which I think suggests that delta must be a better mutation (for the virus). SA has a largely unvaccinated population. Is the concern here that beta might be a better mutation for the virus because we have so many vaccinated people?

@Piggywaspushed

Neil Ferguson was definitely squirming on Marr this morning about whether the government is pursuing some form of herd immunity via children. Basically, yes.

Yes.

@PatrickTheFox - perhaps Delta is more transmissible, so it "wins". As I understand it, the issue with Beta is the higher level of having breakthrough infections post vaccine. It may also be that Beta is thought to have a higher hospitalisation or death rate, though I can't find anything comparing it with Delta, so maybe that is only compared with original covid.

My completely uneducated view

Vaccines work pretty well against Delta and the government are hoping that we run out of people to infect in the next few weeks - OK, that might not happen but we may quickly get to the peak!

There are worries that AZ does not do as well against Beta and we have a high percentage of population vaccinated with AZ.

Also does immunity against Delta mean you have immunity against Beta?

Even if Delta is the more dominant strain and does outspread Beta, if we have had our Delta peak and the spread is naturally lower, does that then give Beta a chance to take hold?

Whereas if you allow Delta to wipe Beta out elsewhere, then does that put us in a better position?

On Beta v Delta is there an advantage to people getting latter does it protect more than vaccination against Beta?

AZ takes longer to build up immunity, hence the trial issues in SA. Beta simply has more immune escape due to the difference from original covid the vaccines were based on, so it is also an issue with Pfizer or Moderna, but money talks...

Personally I am happy with the decision. My daughter will get her jab as nearly 18 and my son won’t. I was in two minds about my son anyway so this makes the decision for me. If world data shows it is safe in younger teens in a few months time and the advice changes I will let him get jab.
I agree with the poster who made point that we shouldn’t be vaccinating children just because some adults refuse. We’re also in privileged position of having high adult take up rates. Other countries with lower take up rates have a greater need to vaccinate teens to up their vaccinated %.
For once, we can let other countries take the lead and watch what happens!