Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 11th JULY

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
List of useful data links below. Suggestions for additions, and indeed deletions, always welcome.
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

The North East had 2.9% positive week ending 10 July.

that is close to1 in 30

Likely to be higher now

That last figure is ONS - I think their stats are probably the most accurate reflection of what is really happening.

@herecomesthsun

That last figure is ONS - I think their stats are probably the most accurate reflection of what is really happening.

ONS have always been: 1) Based on responder bias of the type of people who are more likely to comply with testing (and other guidance), 2) Tracking infection rates as of a couple of weeks ago, and 3) Picking up infections that are weeks old. It's good at identifying hidden rises and particularly age-based comparisons. It runs slow for tracking stabilisation of cases, and ultimately falls. Covid-Zoe is better at the latter, though also has some responder bias. I've been mulling over how either can keep up when the majority (responder types) are vaccinated, with more cases among unvaccinated (not responder types).

@sirfredfredgeorge

Given how so much of peoples exercise in normal times is concentrated in the summer months, it may well be more important to actually get some in now, sadly though PHE have collected no information, provided no advice, done nothing to actually improve health in the last 18 months

Absolutely this.

So many people I know have put on excess weight during covid times. Why the flock are so many of the population letting themselves get fat and unhealthy at a time when it is very important to be healthy?

Why has the R dropped to 1.2 - 1.4 from 1.2 - 1.5 when cases are going up sharply?

@MRex good point re responder bias, but that might tend to suggest that the real rates are higher still?

Why has the R dropped to 1.2 - 1.4 from 1.2 - 1.5 when cases are going up sharply

Because the number of expected new cases is a function or both existing cases and the R number. For example

100 initial cases at an R of 1.5 will infect 150 people.

500 initial cases at an R of 1.3 will infect 650 people.

[quote JellyBabiesFan]@sirfredfredgeorge

Given how so much of peoples exercise in normal times is concentrated in the summer months, it may well be more important to actually get some in now, sadly though PHE have collected no information, provided no advice, done nothing to actually improve health in the last 18 months

Absolutely this.

So many people I know have put on excess weight during covid times. Why the flock are so many of the population letting themselves get fat and unhealthy at a time when it is very important to be healthy?[/quote]
Well, being in lockdown is pretty hard and lots of people eat when they're not happy and/or bored, plus people have spent quite a few months in the last year trapped in their houses simultaneously trying to look after young DC/homeschool whilst trying to work.

Not exactly the ideal situation for self improvement.

Yes I agree that the stress of the last 1.5 years has a downward pressure on many. Plus feeling a lack of control - you must isolate / lockdown. Psychological factors which aren’t really conducive to helping with obesity and overweight levels.

Then of course repeating isolating children who weren’t meant to even exercise outside house / garden if they have one. Bad for them and probably adults dealing with it.

[quote herecomesthsun]@MRex good point re responder bias, but that might tend to suggest that the real rates are higher still?[/quote]
It might, yes. Your point just made me consider that responder bias might get stronger now we have so many double vaxxed; presumably there is some formula tweaking for this, but I don't see how it wouldn't really strongly affect accuracy.

Remember the supposed "non-responder" types should, if the rules are in any way valid at suppressing spread, also have a considerably higher infection rate than responders.

So new Zoe figures out today. Cases are down to 31,676 from 32,920 yesterday. Definitely on track to be seeing an R value of around 0.9 by this coming Monday.

I think it looks now likely that with current behaviours, the R value for the vaccinated group is below 1 and that the vaxed group therefore has lower transmission.

One interesting aspect of the Zoe survey is that their case estimates are now diverging from the daily PCR cases - it seems there is also a demographic effect e.g. unvaccinated people are probably less likely to be bothered about logging their symptoms on the Zoe app. So I think the PCR data we are seeing is still likely showing an increasing proportion of unvaccinated cases, which accounts for the discrepancy with the zoe survey.

However, the Zoe survey shows what happens once we get through that list of susceptible, unvaccinated people.

graphs

We apparently have more than 50,000 cases today on testing,so I can't see how cases would be falling, especially with the figures from ONS covid survey showing a sharp rise.

We apparently have more than 50,000 cases today on testing,so I can't see how cases would be falling, especially with the figures from ONS covid survey showing a sharp rise.

How many of those gathering in large groups to watch the Euro final will log symptoms on Zoe.

I do think we are at the stage now where Zoe may not be as representative.

ONS data only goes to July 10 (with higher uncertainty for post-July 7th period) so the numbers are not really comparable to the latest trends in Zoe/PHE cases. The jump in prevalence reported today is reflective of the growth from July 1 to July 10.

Zoe is normally an early indicator for PHE cases but it is skewed towards (i) more "compliant" people and (ii) women (who might still be football fans but, perhaps, a bit less so than men). Previously, when Zoe's trend changed, PHE numbers used to follow in a few days time.

However, there is one caveat - Zoe's drop is largely driven by Scotland and Northern Ireland. Most of England's regions are flat.

I guess all we can do is wait and see.

My area dipped for a couple of days on Zoe but is going back up.

Same here @QueenStromba

Re: weight gain, in this house it is snacking during the day WFH. Normally I take into work the food I'm going to eat & eat it, whereas at home I pop to the kitchen for a drink and have a biscuit/couple of sweets/square of chocolate/crisps with lunch when i normally wouldn't, it all.adds.up. Also not walking 2 miles.to school &back everyday, exercise in the lounge is nowhere near as good at burning calories as my normal village hall work out. It all adds up

Does anyone on here have any views on the worldmeter projections for the UK? They look very scary and quite a lot worse than those used by sage with a peak of 300k cases in September and 700 deaths a day.
covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom?view=infections-testing&tab=trend&test=infections

Indigo I don't think it appears accurate at all!

[quote Indigopearl]Does anyone on here have any views on the worldmeter projections for the UK? They look very scary and quite a lot worse than those used by sage with a peak of 300k cases in September and 700 deaths a day.
covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom?view=infections-testing&tab=trend&test=infections[/quote]
What on earth is that?

Is that site owned by one of those Etsy mask manufacturers? Ridiculous.

Also, they are just extrapolating current doubling times. No way they will continue. Once the Euro super spreading is out of the wash, things will calm down.

[quote Indigopearl]Does anyone on here have any views on the worldmeter projections for the UK? They look very scary and quite a lot worse than those used by sage with a peak of 300k cases in September and 700 deaths a day.
covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom?view=infections-testing&tab=trend&test=infections[/quote]
Even at the worse scenario 300k -700 deaths a day it’d be 1/2 the deaths we had daily in January

Indigo they are looking at things now and not how it will be in each country in a few weeks time.

And for Scotland they have mask use dropping significantly but the mask mandate is not changing.

And they have 35k cases a day - Scotland has already on the way out if this wave and cases have dropped a fair way from peak.

Complete crap I think is a polite way to put it!

Bet it gets quoted and treated as a fact later though

Even at the worse scenario 300k -700 deaths a day it’d be 1/2 the deaths we had daily in January so would that be alright then?