Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 11th JULY

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
List of useful data links below. Suggestions for additions, and indeed deletions, always welcome.
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

Why would peaking while schools are active help?

It wouldn’t, and I didn’t say it would.

@borntobequiet

Why would peaking while schools are active help?

It wouldn’t, and I didn’t say it would.

Ok that’s brief.

The strategy still stands. Peak over summer as schools are out.

Some seem to be panicking a bit today which is fine but despite Whitty doing his media bit it’s not changing.

July 19th is going ahead albeit with a strong side dose of physiological impact around comms / caution.

Seems standard given what we’ve seen used as tools over last 18 months

[quote lonelyplanet]Here is a thread about covid in children.

On 12th July there were 54 child hospital admissions with COVID, which is more than at any other point in the pandemic.

mobile.twitter.com/jneill/status/1414703262473797634[/quote]
I can’t tell from the data whether that is hospitalisation as a consequence of covid or not. Anecdotally a friend who works in a large children’s hospital has mentioned admissions are high (mainly seems to be RSV) but they are picking up lots of incidental Covid infections through routine testing on admission.

And other observation on case trends - local authorities with lower vaccination rates are more likely to see ongoing "ebbs and flows' even after the initial spike plateaus. This is what seem to be happening in Manchester and Liverpool.

... another observation...

I can’t tell from the data whether that is hospitalisation as a consequence of covid or not. Anecdotally a friend who works in a large children’s hospital has mentioned admissions are high (mainly seems to be RSV) but they are picking up lots of incidental Covid infections through routine testing on admission.

It isn't clear. However it has a comparison to previous waves. More children are ill enough to be admitted and have covid than previously. This is worrying.

More children have covid in this way, by quite a large margin?

And there are more admissions in children for other things because they're no longer locked down reducing all admissions.

The RSV comparison is interesting, as it's a more serious disease than covid in children, and particularly requires more icu support, but there's no daily update on the number of beds required there?

More children are testing positive for Covid in hospital or more children in the wards

If latter then RSV has been a factor can that be separated out

@wintertravel1980

He said that the doubling time for hospital cases was "around three weeks" and while the number of hospitalisations was "mercifully much lower", it was "not trivial".

I am afraid Whitty is not quoting the latest data. Hospital admissions are currently doubling every 15 days while beds occupied are doubling every 12 days. This is the result of the rapid growth of cases from the previous week. It is not the first time when twitter enthusiasts are looking at the latest data while government advisors are a few days behind.

However, there is also some good news. The growth of cases has been slowing down and the numbers are now doubling every 19 days (vs 9 days not too long ago). As we discussed, the trends also vary across local authorities. Some are on the way down, some are plateauing, others (e.g. South West) are increasing rapidly. It is not a homogenous picture. It looks like some period of rapid growth is unavoidable (regardless of vaccination levels) however areas with higher vaccination rates (e.g. South Tyneside) might be plateauing earlier than others (e.g. Blackburn).

My LA has just seen numbers quadruple in a little over a week.

Yes @mrex, I was wondering whether a “sister” thread might be the answer. It could resort to Data too, especially when the “usual” posters appear!

Looking at the tweet

🚨 Child cases up +29%, now higher than wave 2 peak‼️
🚨 Child hospitalisations rising, up +37% in a week‼️
🚨 6% of CV19 admissions are children
🚨 1 in every 200 child cases is hospitalised (was 1:100)

There are more cases and more hospitalisations but actually the ratio of cases to being hospitialised is less. Unless the 1:100 is wrong?

He’s confirmed that the 0.5% (1:200) is correct, look under the replies @Quartz2208

My LA has just seen numbers quadruple in a little over a week.

I am afraid most of the LAs will see a similar trend. This is exactly what happened to South Tyneside and is happening now in Redcar and Cleveland.

I previously thought high vaccination rates may suppress growth. I was wrong - it looks like they can't. However it appears likely that vaccination rates lead to (i) an earlier plateau and (ii) a more consistent drop once the high point is reached.

via twitter @ThatRyanChap

daily growth rate now more than half what it was end of june/early july time.

and by the same twitter account

North West continues to flatten I see….weekly growth less than 10% now.

An interesting illustration why vaccination on its own is unlikely to be sufficient...

Here is the comparison of case trends in UK vs Malta. A question - what share of population in Malta is fully vaccinated?

*

The answer is ... 80.2% of the total population (no, not just adults).

Cases are still rising.

Interesting Winter

Thanks Lonely, this is what we are seeing in (primary) schools, extremely sharp and fast spread, especially in the NE, some of whom are open another week.

Very glad schools closing soon.

Anecdotally, for most children, it's seems to be like a cold. There's a bad Rsv thing going around too.

Outbreak in our school this week, including my child and 5 others in her class.
Not presenting as a cold actually - all the positives are initially very tired, high temp for 24 hours, headache, then very slight cough.

Coronavirus ONS survey as of 10 July

1 in 95 in England

2.6% Y12 - age 24

2.9% in the North East

Thanks here.

The nursery were told by PHE to emphasise runny nose symptoms and d+v in young children and sent a lot of children home on Monday. One tested positive.

Just a few weeks ago a number of places in the NE were 1 in a 100 in many areas. School may have an impact but that may be offset by less restrictions.

Have to hope vaccines continue to help hospitals.

www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/north-east-postcodes-covid-rates-20981438

Off-topic but still worth sharing - the list of walk-in vaccination centres in London:

www.cityam.com/fancy-a-covid-jab-here-are-all-the-walk-in-vaccine-sites-open-in-london-this-month-2/

The numbers in the ONS survey and the Chronicle article are not comparable.

The newspaper refers to confirmed positive cases (reported in the dashboard). The ONS survey models general prevalence which by definition is likely to be much higher.

For comparison, at the peak of the winter wave in many areas of London 1 in 30 people (across all age groups) had Covid.

Ah ok winter