Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 11th JULY

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
List of useful data links below. Suggestions for additions, and indeed deletions, always welcome.
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

Yes and his Science Museum talk which has been spun to ‘lockdown’ in five weeks is part of the comms tactics to get the caution.

Whitty backs 19th but he and government need to moderate through behavioural comms.

It will work for many.

I don't think what Whitty is saying now is much different to want he said on the podium recently? Even BJ was more serious when he announced restrictions would be lifted.

And the press always spin things. I wouldn't be surprised if they started pushing for restrictions again once they are lifted after spending months arguing against them.

@MarshaBradyo

Yes and his Science Museum talk which has been spun to ‘lockdown’ in five weeks is part of the comms tactics to get the caution.

Whitty backs 19th but he and government need to moderate through behavioural comms.

It will work for many.

Well, Johnson is also now saying that he "hopes" the end of restrictions will be irreversible, rather than affirming that they definitely are, and also "we must rule nothing out” - which is being interpreted here, not all that unreasonably, as a possibility of further lockdown.

To be honest, that is the reality going into a winter situation with many unknowns. The behaviour of the public now is going to be really important in determining what measures are needed, and it is currently unclear what those will be.

www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-raises-threat-lockdown-24519578

Johnson is always overly optimistic - he is a man wholy out of his depth in a job that he lied and cheated his way too

I would hope that most of us don't take for certain much of what he says.

The talk of 'irreversible' was before Delta though. Delta has changed things and it remains to be seen if it will actually be a game changer.

I know it’s changed re irreversible message.

But this part is to get us to behave in the desired way now to try to limit actions in winter. Some still may happen no one can say for sure.

We’ve had this tool throughout the pandemic. It does work we comply more when we have these types of messages.

Well if it can influence behaviour that's a positive.

However, saying this is a "tool" is a bit undermining of the actual truth that numbers are doubling, and if we ignore that we will end up with a much worse situation; and we can't actually exclude further lockdowns.

There's a balance to be gained through other viruses too, which will cripple the nhs in the winter, alongside inevitable Covid infections, unless they start to circulate more widely now.

The choices the government has are very much rock v hard places.

It's 'project natural herd immunity' among children and young people in the NE. I have wondered if that's a factor too.

Reported now on the BBC, with a somewhat more sober tone www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57858864

The Nudge Unit is in over-drive all over the media today.

The campaign will be wearing if it lasts for weeks

I am of course concerned that lockdown in 5/6 weeks is on a collision course to muck up education again. I'd rather have 4/5 more weeks of restrictions now to build in a chance protect schools and universities in the autumn. I did think education was the number one priority , but it seems summer is.

Given how so much of peoples exercise in normal times is concentrated in the summer months, it may well be more important to actually get some in now, sadly though PHE have collected no information, provided no advice, done nothing to actually improve health in the last 18 months.

Exercise will be affected by the need to isolate (just waiting to hear whether DS needs to)

True and no sugar and salt tax to come either...

@here sadly PHE's guidance on how to isolate, and what measures to put in place (particularly for people shielding) has been so bad, that they actually expect you to do no exercise in lockdown or isolation.

And yes, isolation will limit peoples exercise, however obviously providing no exercise for anyone will be worse than if even a 1/4 of people are isolating.

In reality though, appropriate sensible proportional measure that allow people to maintain their health is necessary.

I can’t see this impacting education due to higher numbers over summer

It would help to get peak over in next 6 to 8 weeks

On isolating was there talk if dropping it for double vaccinated close contacts

@WarriorN Flu report here, I took a while to find it this week too. Some new graphs this week.

www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season

Interesting (new?) map from Test & Trace for percentage of contacts reached: www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports. The report shows a small reduction recently in requests for contacts to isolate within 3 days of symptoms, but still over 87%.

Here is a thread about covid in children.

On 12th July there were 54 child hospital admissions with COVID, which is more than at any other point in the pandemic.

mobile.twitter.com/jneill/status/1414703262473797634

@ILookAtTheFloor

The Nudge Unit is in over-drive all over the media today.

It's Friday. A hot, sunny weekend is forecast.

I can’t see this impacting education due to higher numbers over summer

-Numbers climb over July/August
-Beginning of September put the remaining unvaccinated/partially vaccinated population into unventilated, non-socially distanced indoor spaces for most of the day, unmasked
-Move them around so they interact with many different people during the course of the day

What could possibly happen?

Oh, and don’t test and contact trace.

There is a lot more chatter without numbers these days in this thread, we're all guilty of it but collectively it might be nice try to rein it in a bit here. As everyone does like to debate, maybe people could post up a new thread link and ask others to join for chatter about a specific points, best of all worlds then?

On the topic of cases, they look very high at the moment. I like looking at the patterns of MSOAs and have specific ones I've been watching in different areas that were old hotspots. I see positive signs and expect we are on a bumpy ride but one that will tip downwards in London and NW in particular in coming weeks. NE doesn't have the good signs yet sadly.

@borntobequiet

I can’t see this impacting education due to higher numbers over summer

-Numbers climb over July/August
-Beginning of September put the remaining unvaccinated/partially vaccinated population into unventilated, non-socially distanced indoor spaces for most of the day, unmasked
-Move them around so they interact with many different people during the course of the day

What could possibly happen?

Why would peaking while schools are active help?

We will be changing isolation rules children will get it. Delay was for adults / community cases rather than to avoid them getting it at all.

He said that the doubling time for hospital cases was "around three weeks" and while the number of hospitalisations was "mercifully much lower", it was "not trivial".

I am afraid Whitty is not quoting the latest data. Hospital admissions are currently doubling every 15 days while beds occupied are doubling every 12 days. This is the result of the rapid growth of cases from the previous week. It is not the first time when twitter enthusiasts are looking at the latest data while government advisors are a few days behind.

However, there is also some good news. The growth of cases has been slowing down and the numbers are now doubling every 19 days (vs 9 days not too long ago). As we discussed, the trends also vary across local authorities. Some are on the way down, some are plateauing, others (e.g. South West) are increasing rapidly. It is not a homogenous picture. It looks like some period of rapid growth is unavoidable (regardless of vaccination levels) however areas with higher vaccination rates (e.g. South Tyneside) might be plateauing earlier than others (e.g. Blackburn).