Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 11th JULY

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
List of useful data links below. Suggestions for additions, and indeed deletions, always welcome.
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

@Sunshinegirl82

Isn't this whole situation unprecedented? We are one of the first/only countries to have a high rate of vaccination combined with delta being dominant. I'm not sure necessarily that being first to take this sort of approach means it's inherently wrong (it might be of course - I just don't think it's inevitable).

The UK has made some unprecedented decisions throughout

• they extended the time given between doses - heavily criticised

• they said that another vaccine could be given for 2nd dose if original vaccine not vaccinated- heavily criticised

I am sure there are more but these are the 2 that springs to mind.

I agree we’ve taken decisions others haven’t

One that sticks in the mind is over 65 AZ based on expert thinking and / or lab work rather than extensive trial data

That was very much criticised but did turn out to be right

The first of those has been proven to be a good thing (gap)

the second (mixing vaccines) has been followed in Germany etc (Angela Merkel is one)

@Quartz2208

The first of those has been proven to be a good thing (gap)

the second (mixing vaccines) has been followed in Germany etc (Angela Merkel is one)

Spain also recommended mixing vaccines tho most of the ones I know went for az + az.

Re US (think it was this thread, if not - apologies), just seen this:

The extension in time between doses has been generally accepted to be the correct decision as far as I have seen? The delay promotes a stronger immune response.

The guidance surrounding using a different second dose was only in exceptional circumstances - it wasn't recommended as usual or common practice.

There are a lot of decisions I would question but I can see the logic behind both of those in the circumstances.

I agree they have been good decisions - that was my point.

Apart from Brazil, I am not sure if any country has been criticised as much as UK? Some decisions have been shocking, but I do really appreciate the fact that our experts have been able to make good decisions (whilst still being a risk), when other experts seem more restrained.

I do realise that what we are doing now is a big gamble, and I really hope it's the right call.

This time though, I don't think we will be much of an outlier for long.

Based on the information that seems to have been produced by SAGE including the modelling I can see that there is logic behind the decision to release restrictions now. That isn't the same as saying it's definitely a brilliant idea just that I'm not sure it's as clear cut as a lot of people make out.

On risk why does being vaccinated with one dose increase likelihood? If it does

You can be Covid positive double vaccinated. Is it just a numbers thing?

Not sure I really followed all that part closely

@Wakeupin2022

I agree they have been good decisions - that was my point.

Apart from Brazil, I am not sure if any country has been criticised as much as UK? Some decisions have been shocking, but I do really appreciate the fact that our experts have been able to make good decisions (whilst still being a risk), when other experts seem more restrained.

I do realise that what we are doing now is a big gamble, and I really hope it's the right call.

This time though, I don't think we will be much of an outlier for long.

I agree with you, I think there has been an acceptance in the U.K. that there are no perfect solutions and that sometimes not doing anything/not making changes can be just as problematic as taking action and making a choice to move forward.

I can see the logic in pretty much all the decisions made. That doesn't mean I don't think the government have made mistakes because they have.

It helps me to try to separate CMO / CSA driven decisions which have been broadly tight imo

And I think it’s driving this

I’m hoping the same for this but will hold back on worry

Right

@Sunshinegirl82

Based on the information that seems to have been produced by SAGE including the modelling I can see that there is logic behind the decision to release restrictions now. That isn't the same as saying it's definitely a brilliant idea just that I'm not sure it's as clear cut as a lot of people make out.

Yes, as previously mentioned we knew cases would rise as soon as restrictions were lifted and there is logic in getting the worst of it out of the way before autumn/winter (when the NHS is under pressure anyway). It seems the least worst option at the moment, as continuing restrictions into next year would exert its own toll (with no guarantee that we wouldn't be facing this type of exit wave then anyway,)

Out of interest, are there any data on how long a "wave" would last unchecked based on our current infection and vaccination stats?

I think that part of the problem for the last few months / longer on this thread is that there are fewer and fewer even vaguely informed alternative threads. Therefore posters ask questions here which they know someone will be able to answer. They also post opinions about government policy in the hope of an informed response.

I remember the first time someone, a regular poster iirc, issued the challenge to predict what the case rate would be by such and such a date. It was discussed in a measured way. However I think it began a slow drift towards more speculation and less data driven analysis.

The other aspect is, and I speak personally here, one may unfortunately appear to be “glorying” in the rates (infections /hospitalisation /deaths, even) going up. But it’s not that, it’s more like “I told you we need to be scared”. “Join me in my (justified) anxiety”. Sorry am tired and not expressing myself very well.

It is difficult for most of us to be entirely neutral about these matters, especially after 18 months of it. There are also different personalities here, as in RL... And different experiences/ viewpoints / political philosophies.

The other issue is that this is a MN thread not a scientific common room, to state the obvious.

(I’ll probably regret posting this in the morning!)

[quote sirfredfredgeorge]**@here* and @sun* - If you remember a few of these threads back, I was saying lockdown was necessary when we had hundreds of cases a day, it's not me, it's Whitty who has decided it, there's no point trying to convince me (and I'm not super keen on the who either) you need to convince Public Health England.

I utterly don't buy the variant argument against the background of vaccine hoarding by rich countries, sacrificing the rest of the world to cases in countries that could put few measures in place to stop spread, there are a billion people unable to be locked down because they couldn't survive, they will have cases, a few million more in Europe won't change the chances.[/quote]
This is what Whitty thinks (he seems to be more worried than Johnson, but doesn't call the shots)

www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/chris-whitty-warns-england-could-24546061

"Speaking at a British Science Museum event, Professor Whitty underlined that epidemics are "either doubling or they're halving", adding: "And currently this epidemic is doubling. It's doubling in cases. It is also doubling in people going to hospital, and it's doubling in deaths."

Professor Whitty added that medics could soon be faced with "scary numbers again", adding: "I don't think we should underestimate the fact that we could get into trouble again, surprisingly fast."

The top medic said if hospital admissions begin doubling and the jabs rollout was not "topping out" the pandemic, in "five, six, seven eight weeks' time" the Prime Minister may need to "look again" at restrictions.

@wintertravel1980

If we hit cases in 6 figures we are likely to return to pile em high mode.

A 6 figure case number is likely to translate into 2,000 hospital admissions a day (for England only) which is in line with modelling.

Pile em high is probably 4,000+ hospital admissions. India scenario is 7,000+

again from here www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/chris-whitty-warns-england-could-24546061

Quoting Whitty

He said that the doubling time for hospital cases was "around three weeks" and while the number of hospitalisations was "mercifully much lower", it was "not trivial".

He said: "We've still got over 2000 people in hospital, and that number is increasing.

"If we double from 2000 to 4000, from 4000 to 8000, to 8000 and so on, it doesn't take many doubling times till you're into very very large numbers indeed."

It’s mixed as per as he says people need to be cautious and generally they have been good, need to "look again" at restrictions isn’t specific.

And if he says one thing to MPs backing July 19 but another to a Science Museum crowd it’s not helping much.

Maybe he had to do the give them high numbers part to get us to be cautious. Definitely used in the past.

@JanFebAnyMonth

Let’s keep calm everyone. Reasoned debate is what we’re about.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1002086/all-regions-brief-20210714.pdf?fbclid=IwAR3hzaFmwDE_EX1eTIX0eFf2-L0xGnIxobtgssggav0TWbchvLTjNIFCKvw

Is this a new format, I hadn’t seen it before?

Has that replaced the flu report?

I can't find this week's.

@EasterIssland

Checking here the cases in the states most affected by the virus (California, Texas and Florida ) the numbers are starting to go up (I’m not sure about the vaccine % sorry)

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Their vaccine uptake has really stabilise and is way below the uks one.

You can get vaccination charts by state on Our World in Data too, I attached a chart. For the USA though, I think the NY Times does the best charts per 100,000. Here are cases and vaccination.

NY Times link: www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html.
Montana, Arkansas, Wyoming and Colorado all show high cases with low vaccinations (for Colorado and Wyoming it's a mixed picture across the states). Arizona, Texas and Florida all have areas of decent vaccination rates with a fair few cases however, so it isn't a super tidy picture.

U.K. gets criticism a lot for its decisions (Ireland, Australia, EU I’m looking at you) and then quietly when the fuss dies down these countries do the same.
Australia and New Zealand look “with horror “ at us all the time. But this is changing as they slowly realise the predicament they are in ( arguably worse than ours unless they can massively improve vaccination).
It’s annoying but what can you do!
US gets a lot criticism too but they probably don’t care.

That's so true @sashagabadon, my learning has been 'this is a marathon, not a sprint'.

I have no idea what Aus and NZ will do next, especially with the real world evidence that transmission doesn't seem to be controlled even amongst the vaccinated population.

US is probably harder as it’s so varied by state. Texas I think got some re masks going, iirc

Whitty is consistent in saying the same thing - be cautious.

The important thing is that people remain almost as cautious as they were before.

It is hard for the Government to police these measures; there's a reasonable argument for voluntary rather than compulsory compliance. But we still need compliance.

The duplicity is in the Freedom Day idea. That really is mixed messaging. If we ignore the reality of being in a pandemic, and think, "We're free to behave as we did in 2019" we are liable to get a significant resurgence with significant mortality and could well get more restrictions formally imposed.

Johnson is trying to put a spin where a spin won't work.