Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 11th JULY

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
List of useful data links below. Suggestions for additions, and indeed deletions, always welcome.
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

I find it disturbing that this thread appears to be ignoring this. I always felt the posters were independent, yet it appears we have to accept this

We've had months to accept this though, the exit modelling when Boris stood and said data not dates said this would happen - even with the early seeding of Delta that's perhaps brought the peak forward, this path was known. The question marks were and still are about the death rate on those cases, and we are I think still seeing positive signs with that.

I dont think anyone has ever said that it WONT make 100,000 cases a day just that it is one possible outcome.

@NannyAndJohn it is your insistence that not only it is happening but that no one else gets what is going on and that there is only one outcome in all of this.

Of course I am concerned I've said quite a few times that its not unlikely that it will happen in August. But nanny acting like they were the only one who said it would happen and everyone else said it wouldn't is a blatant lie and I will call them out on it every time they make that claim.

I just find it frustrating to be honest about this thread. It used to have really good data , supported by experts (maths people , scientist , etc). But every now and again there is mns with their own predictions but based on their maths knowledge … and if you try to challenge it they tell you that you like having the head in the sand … and when they’re wrong they just blame the noise.

I just would like to see this thread again with data (good or bad news) but actual data. Not predictions that by freedom day we’ll have 20k patients per day in hospital (in Jans peak we had 40k overall) it’s just strange that when even nhs bosses say the link has broken between cases and deaths some people keep repeating their mantra despite the current numbers don’t support it.

Agree Easter and I apologise to most of the regulars for my outburst (which I see has been deleted). Fabrication and bluster have no place on this thread, I've been part of this thread since the BCF and excitement over sewerage days and it was always the place to come for fact driven discussion I really hope it can get back to that.

Every single model reviewed by SAGE has predicted a summer wave which included the rise in (i) cases, (ii) hospitalisations and (iii) deaths. We might have got away with a different outcome in the pre-Delta world but, unfortunately, it is no longer an option.

I do not think any of regular posters claimed that "cases do not matter at all" or "hospitalisations will remain in low hundreds", etc. Of course, cases eventually lead to hospital admissions and hospital admissions sadly lead to deaths. The percentages may be lower (i.e. fewer people will end up in hospitals and fewer people die) but the link will still exit.

The big question is the size of the wave and this is where we are dealing with a wide range of unknowns.

For now it looks like we are running closest to models developed by (i) LSHTM and (ii) James Ward (a mathematician on twitter who appears to have learnt a lot about infectious diseases since the start of pandemic).

What’s happening in the US?

Haven’t they relaxed - it’d be interesting to see more as vaccination rates differ

NL had a lower rate when it opened more

I’m more for calm discussion than telling people to be anxious but I get some are which is obviously an individual response

To be fair and also pedantic they don't say 'broken' but 'weakened' so best not to further that mantra in order to make your won point. Boris himself has been picked up and challenged on that. And blustered of course. He had his commons speech played back to him on C4 News.

Janthat is indeed new! New graphics geeks!

own point.

I agree with pp the spirit of the thread was to be calm and rational

As set up by the calm and rational BCF

Every few posts we lose that unfortunately

The US is a huuuge country. Depends which bit you are looking at.

My DM in NYC (quite gung ho on the whole) thinks the mayor has gone completely mad. Then again, I'm not sure she knows about our huge sport events.

NYC has never really had its schools fully open, of course.

Yes as in next line vaccination rates differ too

I don’t have appetite for dissecting each state atm but wonder is anywhere similar to us? As I doubt anyone does

Also any commentary on that as we are getting

@EasterIssland

I just find it frustrating to be honest about this thread. It used to have really good data , supported by experts (maths people , scientist , etc). But every now and again there is mns with their own predictions but based on their maths knowledge … and if you try to challenge it they tell you that you like having the head in the sand … and when they’re wrong they just blame the noise.

I just would like to see this thread again with data (good or bad news) but actual data. Not predictions that by freedom day we’ll have 20k patients per day in hospital (in Jans peak we had 40k overall) it’s just strange that when even nhs bosses say the link has broken between cases and deaths some people keep repeating their mantra despite the current numbers don’t support it.

But the link isn't completely broken; although the vaccines have been great we will still get mounting deaths unless we keep with the scientific principles regarding distancing, masks etc. The ratio of deaths to cases is smaller, by a factor of about 15ish, supposedly

If we hit cases in 6 figures we are likely to return to pile em high mode.

What’s happening in the US?

They are running behind the UK and I expect them to see a very similar wave of Delta but with a few weeks delay.

In fact, the rates of growth across UK, US and most of the European countries have been very similar.

@MarshaBradyo the only real US one I've been following is SF, similar to a UK city in previous restrictions, I think relative similar in attitudes so good levels of vaccination unlike some areas of the US, a different environment of course. Cases got very low, all restrictions gone by mid June, delta's arrived and cases now shooting up, at the same sort of rates we've seen in any other Delta arrival places.

Deaths still low. The pattern is currently holding everywhere.

Checking here the cases in the states most affected by the virus (California, Texas and Florida ) the numbers are starting to go up (I’m not sure about the vaccine % sorry)

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Their vaccine uptake has really stabilise and is way below the uks one.

If we hit cases in 6 figures we are likely to return to pile em high mode.

A 6 figure case number is likely to translate into 2,000 hospital admissions a day (for England only) which is in line with modelling.

Pile em high is probably 4,000+ hospital admissions. India scenario is 7,000+

@MarshaBradyo

Yes as in next line vaccination rates differ too

I don’t have appetite for dissecting each state atm but wonder is anywhere similar to us? As I doubt anyone does

Also any commentary on that as we are getting

Nature published an article this week saying that what we are doing is "unprecedented" - I can' easily link as on a tablet but I have linked to it on this board already

I think vaccination will keep severe cases and death rates low enough to return to some sort of normality, or would if the situation was managed better. As it is it looks as though we’re going to have to live with a very difficult situation for some time yet. Dropping the requirement for face coverings indoors and on public transport is IMO a huge mistake. Schools have been handled very badly and are set to be completely cut adrift from any meaningful attempt at management or mitigation - without vaccination of teenagers and a proper test and contact trace system (such as schools have been running, and which will stop) it will be a free for all come September.
(I generally err on the side of caution in these matters because my natural inclination is otherwise inclined, rather towards the libertarian. I’d easily enough be anti-lockdown if I didn’t examine my thinking carefully.) The very high current rates, and the rate of doubling, should have come as absolutely no surprise to anyone prepared to give it a few minutes’ thought.

@wintertravel1980

If we hit cases in 6 figures we are likely to return to pile em high mode.

A 6 figure case number is likely to translate into 2,000 hospital admissions a day (for England only) which is in line with modelling.

Pile em high is probably 4,000+ hospital admissions. India scenario is 7,000+

Does pile em high have an exact number? Is it not more an attitude of laissez faire in the face of pandemic numbers rising exponentislly?

Thanks for US info need to process that a bit

Here what did NL have in place that we don’t? If you know

Isn't this whole situation unprecedented? We are one of the first/only countries to have a high rate of vaccination combined with delta being dominant. I'm not sure necessarily that being first to take this sort of approach means it's inherently wrong (it might be of course - I just don't think it's inevitable).

@MarshaBradyo

Thanks for US info need to process that a bit

Here what did NL have in place that we don’t? If you know

Don't know sorry.

But their experience seems to have been a cautionary one.

@Sunshinegirl82

Isn't this whole situation unprecedented? We are one of the first/only countries to have a high rate of vaccination combined with delta being dominant. I'm not sure necessarily that being first to take this sort of approach means it's inherently wrong (it might be of course - I just don't think it's inevitable).

How can our approach be described?

WHO -"moral emptiness and epidemiological stupidity"

pithy eh?

@Sunshinegirl82

Isn't this whole situation unprecedented? We are one of the first/only countries to have a high rate of vaccination combined with delta being dominant. I'm not sure necessarily that being first to take this sort of approach means it's inherently wrong (it might be of course - I just don't think it's inevitable).

Delta is everywhere Australia with closed borders has got it Indonesia is currently struggling with it and having loads of cases and unluckily deaths Few more south east countries have been having their highest cases ever Russia is struggling

So as you say it is an inevitable situation. (Uk still has a lot of population left to vaccinate 1/3 of whole population)