Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 11th JULY

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
List of useful data links below. Suggestions for additions, and indeed deletions, always welcome.
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

I’m the same as Ginger I wouldn’t be in the anxious group but I have complied throughout pretty much (a couple of outside things when annoyed after negative PCR aside)

London zone 3, socially diverse area (with both large detached houses on leafy streets and council estates), very mixed compliance in Sainsbury's. No-one cares and everyone respects other people's choices.

@wintertravel1980 is that on the leafy streets or inside the supermarkets / on the tube though? Because not many people wear masks outside here (and I certainly don't) but everyone wears masks indoors (I can't remember seeing a single person today not wearing a mask in a shop).

@Piggywaspushed
I had to go to Ikea today (a nightmare in normal times as well). About 1/3 of ppl wore a mask. Employees also had theirs below their chin. No distancing, no one giving a damn.

I don't want lockdown either, but I would like to see behavior change. And all I see is a change for the worse.

In the reception area of our local swimming pool tonight I would say more people had no masks, compared to mask. This was mainly parents whose children had been at lessons.

Depending where I go locally I have noticed differing levels of compliance.

I have been places where there have been plenty of masks that make wonderful chin hammocks!

[quote TheSunIsStillShining]@Piggywaspushed
I had to go to Ikea today (a nightmare in normal times as well). About 1/3 of ppl wore a mask. Employees also had theirs below their chin. No distancing, no one giving a damn.

I don't want lockdown either, but I would like to see behavior change. And all I see is a change for the worse.
[/quote]
It is really not like that round my way!

@Quartz2208

Swine flu was June 2009 I remember having a 3 month old watching tv in Mexico. It kind of died down I think by the autumn. Was still around in March 2010 when I got it.

Was the worst I have ever been took a long time to get better and I still get popping ears from it

I got it quite late - it was December 2009 for me. Spent 4 days in bed feeling very ill but I was only in my mid 20s.

Went home for Xmas (on the train!) thinking I was no longer contagious and gave it to my family, really made my Stepnan ill for a good couple of weeks and I was probably a super spreader on a 4.5 hour train journey

Polls about restrictions are risky things without knowing the restrictions, it's exactly the sort of poll that can be most led towards an answer.

For example:
"Do you support restrictions to prevent the people dying of covid?"
Almost everyone would say yes, it's an open ended question until you get to specifics, I support all sorts of restrictions to stop people dying, but I recognise that harming lots of people such that they all lose a few years of their lives overall so as to protect a few from losing a few right now is not a good balance.

However, it's clear to me from the vast numbers of people testing that people are supporting the restrictions, it's just we simply don't have restrictions that are meaningful to stop the spread. Masks don't work enough.

At this rate we keep fueling this fcker for ages....*

for herd immunity, super fast spread with overshoot is "better", than a slow spread through everyone, it's only worse if the overshoot kills more through health hit. So I'm not sure what's the huge negative with higher rates unless the rates harm healthcare (which other than isolation rules of staff) they are far from doing now, with more non-covid respiratory patients in hospital now.

Sirfred I agree with you on both posts

Mask compliance really varies I’ve noticed - NI very poor compliance, Essex better than NI but less than London. London tube quite poor compliance now (especially the further from centre I go) I would say around 30-40% I see are not wearing masks or are chinstrapping. It seems to be mainly (but not exclusively) kids/teens and outside home workers not wearing them (i.e. they were wearing work uniforms when I saw them) on the tube - maybe feel more relaxed having been “out” during most of the pandemic…. Obviously all these people could also have been legitimately exempt of course

@sirfredfredgeorge
You are -kind of- betting that the virus won't mutate and that long covid is actually just mild and moderate covid.
I don't agree with either statement, thus can't agree with pushing for natural herd immunity. We are potentially risking the health of a whole generation.

@Piggywaspushed
wish we lived were you are. extreme close vicinity is pretty good, because it's an extremely leafy suburb so even the pavements are huge by London standards and there are not too many people living in this area. I went to the post box yesterday afternoon and met 4 other people on the 40 min walk. :)

the new ecdc map looks awful.

look at spain and the netherlands.

there goes our summer holiday...

www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/covid-19/situation-updates/weekly-maps-coordinated-restriction-free-movement

@sirfredfredgeorge

At this rate we keep fueling this fcker for ages....*

for herd immunity, super fast spread with overshoot is "better", than a slow spread through everyone, it's only worse if the overshoot kills more through health hit. So I'm not sure what's the huge negative with higher rates unless the rates harm healthcare (which other than isolation rules of staff) they are far from doing now, with more non-covid respiratory patients in hospital now.

Mike Ryan, executive director of the World Health Organization’s Health Emergencies Program in Geneva, Switzerland, has said that a rush to re-open economies that accepted infections as inevitable and encouraged them to occur “sooner rather than later” amounted to “moral emptiness and epidemiological stupidity”.

I think I'll go with the World Health Organisation on this one.

Here is an article from Nature that explains what the problems are with the higher rates

www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01938-4

We are potentially risking the health of a whole generation

We already have risked the health of a whole generation. The impact of repeated isolations will undoubtedly show itself over the next few years, perhaps longer. The restrictions have not been to protect the young and are in fact more damaging for them in the long run.

And what about all those with Alzheimers etc! How do you think they are now compared with March 20? Yes it's a degenerate condition, but the deterioration has really sped up as a result of lockdown. And what support they once had is no longer available due to the deterioration. And the carers who have also been so isolated. In many cases Husbands and wife's who are no spring chickens themselves, having to provide 24/7 care with no support?

Yes, we had to limit Covid, it was the right thing do. But we need to be able to start seeing that not all bad things are caused by the actual Covid disease.

@here and @sun - If you remember a few of these threads back, I was saying lockdown was necessary when we had hundreds of cases a day, it's not me, it's Whitty who has decided it, there's no point trying to convince me (and I'm not super keen on the who either) you need to convince Public Health England.

I utterly don't buy the variant argument against the background of vaccine hoarding by rich countries, sacrificing the rest of the world to cases in countries that could put few measures in place to stop spread, there are a billion people unable to be locked down because they couldn't survive, they will have cases, a few million more in Europe won't change the chances.

[quote sirfredfredgeorge]**@here* and @sun* - If you remember a few of these threads back, I was saying lockdown was necessary when we had hundreds of cases a day, it's not me, it's Whitty who has decided it, there's no point trying to convince me (and I'm not super keen on the who either) you need to convince Public Health England.

I utterly don't buy the variant argument against the background of vaccine hoarding by rich countries, sacrificing the rest of the world to cases in countries that could put few measures in place to stop spread, there are a billion people unable to be locked down because they couldn't survive, they will have cases, a few million more in Europe won't change the chances.[/quote]
You were asking for reasons of concern about the high number of cases and I supplied a coherent summary from Nature.

look at Spain shock and the Netherlands

I think Denmark is the more interesting one, richer, reportedly happier with the controls, a huge testing and vaccination environment with "passports" required for bars etc. yet their rates are not low (Copenhagen is higher than the South East for example)

@TheSunIsStillShining

48,5k cases today and nobady bats an eyelid. Everything is to open up on Monday. It's disturbing. UK is in the top 5 of most number of daily cases, along with countries who have 300m+ population. And people here merrily cheer along as "we're not sinking"

😳😮

It's a v bizarre situation to be in.

Case rates of around 1000-1500 around me, for a good 5 days ago. Whole schools closed early on PHE advice. Local business closing till august. The metro service across Tyneside is patchy due to low staff. Which means more crowded trains.

A lot of confusion over rules. Children affected this week have to continue isolating but i doubt many will.

I'd feel more confident with a much higher vax rate here.

@TheSunIsStillShining

48,5k cases today and nobady bats an eyelid. Everything is to open up on Monday. It's disturbing. UK is in the top 5 of most number of daily cases, along with countries who have 300m+ population. And people here merrily cheer along as "we're not sinking"

I find it disturbing that this thread appears to be ignoring this. I always felt the posters were independent, yet it appears we have to accept this. Those mocking NannyandJohn (I don't have the pom poms out) seem happy to ignore this. Vaccination will only cover us so much

Yes, we are heading towards 100k cases a day, but as long as that is happening in July rather than June you're not too concerned?

I have kept out of the when-will-we-reach 100k debate because Christ you knows?

But I don't think the rising case and death figures look good.

And the rest of the world appears horrified.

Let’s keep calm everyone. Reasoned debate is what we’re about.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1002086/all-regions-brief-20210714.pdf?fbclid=IwAR3hzaFmwDE_EX1eTIX0eFf2-L0xGnIxobtgssggav0TWbchvLTjNIFCKvw

Is this a new format, I hadn’t seen it before?

Soz Christ who knows