Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 11th JULY

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
List of useful data links below. Suggestions for additions, and indeed deletions, always welcome.
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

I think they're adjusted accordingly @sirfredfredgeorge
covid.joinzoe.com/post/covid-estimates-revised-after-change-to-methodology
So they're apparently pretty much in line with the ONS data.

But I'm not sure how much adjustment they could do before the numbers in their samples are just to small surely?

I think what they've been doing is calculating the positivity rate amongst their own users and then extrapolating it to the wider population - so I think (I'm not 100% sure mind) the data is coming from multiple sources including physical swab testing from the ONS.

@Bordois

Just trying to think this through, but thats good right? If unvaccinated people make up the majority of hospitalisations (do they?) then if cases are dropping for that cohort then that means less pressure on the NHS?

It doesn't bode well for vaccine efficacy. I make that 70% of the population having at least one dose and accounting for 47% of infections. I'd really like to see a breakdown of that data for people at least three weeks after their first and second doses, age and time since second dose.

Depends on what "an infection" is though?

Vaccine doesn't prevent you getting the virus - it affects how your immune system deals with infection. If you test positive but aren't actually that unwell then that could indicate the vaccine has done its job.

An interesting graph from @VictimofMaths illustrating the "gender gap" in Covid cases in Scotland.

The numbers peaked 5 days after Scotland dropped off from the Euro Cup.

We can see a small drop in the 0-14 age group that is probably associated with school holidays.

However, the trends in older age groups, e.g. 20-24 year olds (that are highly unlikely to be school related) are much more prominent.

Y12 and Y13 are by definition at school (or in FE).
I’m glad I don’t currently teach sixth formers.

Almost 50000 today, so one more doubling period to go until we reach the mythical 100000 that everyone said we'd never get to.

48,5k cases today and nobady bats an eyelid. Everything is to open up on Monday. It's disturbing.
UK is in the top 5 of most number of daily cases, along with countries who have 300m+ population. And people here merrily cheer along as "we're not sinking"

And anyone who is concerned is still labelled a "doom monger", "lockdown lover", etc.

It's like early March 2020 all over again.

I think it's not so much as a total lack of concern but a lack of desire to comply with restrictions any longer unless hospitals are demonstrably overwhelmed.

Compliance with restrictions was always going to be temporary and wane over time, I'm actually surprised that there was such widespread compliance for as long as there was.

I expected the numbers to rise so it doesn’t feel out of the blue to me.

I still think we’ll get behavioural change. You can see on mn people saying they’ll modify it due to cases - masks etc. Whether that replicates in wider sense we’ll see over next few weeks.

I have fully expected to get to well over 100,000 cases, I am very surprised about how willing and keen indeed obsessed with testing everyone is, but that really does show how willing everyone actually is to comply with restrictions.

What I do is absolutely blame Public Health England and their continued atrocious leadership, that makes people think these cases are bad, or unexpected, or not exactly what they chose would happen months ago with their policies. And indeed how it is almost certainly the least harmful approach - the non covid harms being significant. But Whitty etc. have been completely absent in ever explaining that restrictions cause harm.

Graphs courtesy of RP131 on Twitter, all still appearing to show that we are in a different place to previous waves.

I would have been really worried if cases in old hotspots had continued to grow exponentially (like they did back in winter). They do not seem to.

We are seeing multiple local waves that accelerate very fast, reach a high watermark and seem to reverse.

We started with Bolton (which is still going through ups and downs but is down on where it was a few weeks ago). Then it was Blackburn. A few days ago the focus was on South Tyneside. Now South Tyneside is turning the corner and over next few days we will probably be talking about Redcar and Cleveland. It is the same pattern but what matters to me is that the growth stops.

I think some of us realise that Covid has taken over for far to long.

The restrictions were needed but as Sunshine says, there is no longer the public support for the restrictions.

Many of us would rather cases weren't as high. I have stressed more recently than I have for a long while. But its not Covid that is stressing me out, its the fact we may need to isolate at some point.

I do find some of the posts on here hard to read if I'm honest, especially when it's becoming clearer & clearer the devastating impact that lockdown has on some people. I get the concern, I don't get the almost gloating like way that the posts come across.

@Wakeupin2022

I think some of us realise that Covid has taken over for far to long.

The restrictions were needed but as Sunshine says, there is no longer the public support for the restrictions.

Many of us would rather cases weren't as high. I have stressed more recently than I have for a long while. But its not Covid that is stressing me out, its the fact we may need to isolate at some point.

I do find some of the posts on here hard to read if I'm honest, especially when it's becoming clearer & clearer the devastating impact that lockdown has on some people. I get the concern, I don't get the almost gloating like way that the posts come across.

There is the public support for restrictions.

A lot of it, in fact.

www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/majority-britons-support-extending-certain-covid-19-restrictions-not-forever

no longer the public support for the restrictions.

Is there any evidence that that is true though? A Morrison's online survey just today had 73% of respondents saying they were anxious about restrictions being lifted.

I am surprised it was as high as 73% as I don't believe that only 27% of people are not complying.

I am nervous about restrictions lifted and personally would have preferred the mask mandate to remain, but that's not the same thing as wanting them to remain. I happen to believe that keeping the restrictions would have caused a serious backlash and actually done more damage than good.

Many of us are not actually going to change our behaviour after Monday so even with no restrictions it's still not going to be normal.

If polls are high and correct some people will modify behaviour. We saw it before first lockdown.

See I keep seeing that on MN about not complying and , certainly in terms of masks (which I am guessing is why Morrisons was feeling the water) I never see anyone in the supermarket without one. Never. But on some boards on MN people claim 'no one ' is wearing them.

We have an issue with sixth formers not wearing masks on school buses but they definitely all put them on to go into shops.

I’m not anxious about restrictions being lifted (So wouldn’t be in the 73%) but neither have I not been complying with the rules.

We had near 100% compliance at Sainsbury’s! Zone 2 London. I often wondered about posts re no one complying.

I’ve always found it high irl and data backs it up I think.

I’m interested to see what changes next week.

I haven’t taken PT for a while though

@Wakeupin2022

I am surprised it was as high as 73% as I don't believe that only 27% of people are not complying.

I am nervous about restrictions lifted and personally would have preferred the mask mandate to remain, but that's not the same thing as wanting them to remain. I happen to believe that keeping the restrictions would have caused a serious backlash and actually done more damage than good.

Many of us are not actually going to change our behaviour after Monday so even with no restrictions it's still not going to be normal.

It depends where you are. People are really careful in our village. When I went on some shopping errands to our local town today (which also has quite an eldierly population) everyone in Tk Maxx, Marks and Waitrose was wearing masks. The lovely butchers in the next village along is super covid secure, only 2 customers at a time in the shop, automatic sensor doors installed, touchless hand gel, screens...and everyone in masks of course. They have no plans to change that.