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Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 11th JULY

999 replies

boys3 · 11/07/2021 11:25

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
List of useful data links below. Suggestions for additions, and indeed deletions, always welcome.
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

Our STUDIES Cornerwww.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

OP posts:
Thread gallery
160
JanFebAnyMonth · 14/07/2021 22:23

I agree @herecomesthsun

WarriorN · 15/07/2021 06:47

primary school right next door to my own school closed yesterday. Only a hand full of kids from two out of 16 classes were in. The rest all popped by cases in children. The LEA advised they close.

The areas in the NE that have schools still open for next week are mostly doing outdoor learning. The combo of the impact of the football and open schools is concerning.

South Tyneside has rocketed at an unbelievable rate. But looking back, they've not actually been hit as badly by previous waves. Though I remember deaths rates were higher than many other areas in the first wave.

Essentially the NE is having its proper wave.

WarriorN · 15/07/2021 06:48

@Regulus

Every time we have a school holiday the infection rate plummets in schoolkids agree Sun despite it not being the cool thing.
That's why the 19th was picked.
WarriorN · 15/07/2021 06:48

Swine flu was managed out by the school hols. I remember that being discussed a lot in March 2020.

sirfredfredgeorge · 15/07/2021 07:47

But school holidays have never ended covid.

Every time pubs have closed, covid cases have dropped, indeed they've dropped more significantly than any drop from school closures.

Are you sure cases don't just drop because a proportion of the population reduce contact and reduce testing?

Regulus · 15/07/2021 07:47

@WarriorN

Swine flu was managed out by the school hols. I remember that being discussed a lot in March 2020.
Agree (although Piggy those out when they should be isolating are wrong, although I feel this is a govt information issue. I've heard several people say that from the 19th "freedom day" close contacts will not have to isolate, they were genuinely astonished that there was a date in August for it)

My concern is for September as whatever happens between now and then will not be a true reflection of the spread of covid.

MRex · 15/07/2021 07:53

Swine flu arrived in summer and mostly affected children and young adults. It was slightly contagious on the day of getting symptoms, then most contagious for up to a week after getting symptoms.

SARS-COV-1 didn't even get to the UK. It became more contagious as symptoms got worse.

Having the most contagious period after symptoms is very bad for a virus. Covid-19 has a lot of success because of the contagious period.

Quartz2208 · 15/07/2021 08:05

Swine flu was June 2009 I remember having a 3 month old watching tv in Mexico. It kind of died down I think by the autumn. Was still around in March 2010 when I got it.

Was the worst I have ever been took a long time to get better and I still get popping ears from it

WarriorN · 15/07/2021 08:06

Yes I'd agree pubs being a big factor.

NE imposed a mini lockdown last September when cases reached this level, which especially affected the hospitality industry. Cases were mostly identified in pubs / bars and then young people and students initially. It went down very quickly. When autumn 'levelled' restrictions came in it actually relaxed the rules a little in the NE.

The delta does seem to be more prevalent in primary age children than before though, who aren't using lft. Which you could argue shows vaccines are working and this would otherwise be much worse.

Lots of confusion about bubbles and self isolation. Also what happens past the 16th. A friend who is a Gp needed to check with me that her nursery aged child still had to isolate past the 19th, due to popped bubble this week.

WarriorN · 15/07/2021 08:08

Schools can be vectors though, a child catches it and then the parents/ family bubble can easily catch it, despite double vax. I'd like to see rates here for testing positive with symptoms with two jabs. As I know of a few.

MRex · 15/07/2021 08:19

@Quartz2208

Swine flu was June 2009 I remember having a 3 month old watching tv in Mexico. It kind of died down I think by the autumn. Was still around in March 2010 when I got it.

Was the worst I have ever been took a long time to get better and I still get popping ears from it

I was trendy and got it in August. Still had pneumonia through September and it sparked my hypothyroidism, menieres and fatigue. Good times!
Wakeupin2022 · 15/07/2021 08:38

A pregnant friend was very ill with it late 2010.

When I fell pregnant a couple if weeks later I raced to the GP and got the flu vaccine although by that time it was far less of a risk.

sirfredfredgeorge · 15/07/2021 08:48

Schools can be vectors though

Everywhere people come on contact, or even just contact with recently exhaled air can. There's nothing special about schools, eliminating any individual contact only removes that contact path, all the others will still be there.

School holidays also mean people are more likely to visit "new" areas and different people from normal mixing, which means more seeding chances in low areas.

TheSunIsStillShining · 15/07/2021 08:50

It is interesting how the swine flu played out in diff countries. In Hungary it was a marginal thing, around 200 patients, below 10 deaths. But the jab was pushed massively.
It was something happening in other countries. Looking back, wonder if it was under reported, not dealt with or we were really lucky...

QueenStromba · 15/07/2021 09:50

I think with swine flu we got lucky that it hit in the summer and we had a pandemic flu vaccine ready. I caught it at the time and I've never been so ill - I really should have been in the hospital on fluids but they did such a good job with the don't go to hospital messaging that I stayed at home (40+ temperature and couldn't sleep more than an hour at a time without sweating out all my fluids). I was never quite right again afterwards.

borntobequiet · 15/07/2021 10:14

Anyone who thinks there’s nothing special about schools or colleges can’t have been in one recently. Those who work in such places live normal lives outside them and can make direct comparisons with other crowded places, supermarkets, shopping centres, pubs, restaurants, leisure centres. The conditions in none of these at any time compare with crowded classrooms, corridors, dining halls and so on in schools where very many active, noisy and highly physical young adults interact for hours every day, many if not most unmasked, in inadequately ventilated rooms, where individuals regularly cross bubbles, hug and kiss (and occasionally lick) one another, share equipment, food and water bottles, don’t test adequately, and generally behave as if living in normal times. Not even mentioning school transport. I’m happy on the London Underground for an hour, but I wouldn’t spend any time at all on a school bus if you paid me.

Lemonmelonsun · 15/07/2021 10:37

When dd and myself finish school, I really cannot wait think of any other environment where we will all be around 30 others in an enclosed space?
Between us are exposure is directly about 90 then add in other staff.

Once school stops there simply won't be anywhere near that daily level of exposure at all.
We will be relaxing in the house, if we go out, outdoors keeping pretty much to ourselves.

wintertravel1980 · 15/07/2021 10:39

Anyone who thinks there’s nothing special about schools or colleges can’t have been in one recently.

Yes, schools might be more crowded than pubs or entertainment venues, however, if we look at the ONS trends the level of transmission at schools is still lower than in places that facilitate socialisation among adults.

I know we are on MN so naturally we tend to focus on children and schools. However young adults tend to transmit more even if they socialise less. I have attached the screenshots from the latest ONS survey. This information is based on random sampling so it is not driven by how many children do / do not get tested. The graphs speak for themselves. The biggest issue as of now is transmission rates among young adults.

Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 11th JULY
Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 11th JULY
Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 11th JULY
wintertravel1980 · 15/07/2021 10:47

So, in my personal opinion, with other things being equal, school holidays are not going to compensate for open nightclubs. The latter are expected to have a much bigger impact on transmission.

However, I am hoping that other things are not equal and young adults have now got a relatively high level of immunity (achieved both through infections and vaccinations).

Quartz2208 · 15/07/2021 12:01

To be fair I dont think anyone believes that about schools (ok maybe the DofE try to) but Chris Whitty/Boris Johnson/Patrick Vallance have always been quite clear that they are a risk but that the benefits of being open outweigh being shut. Which I think is true - the affects of homeschooling were huge

Nightclubs are going to have a impact as well - I think that is what the Netherlands have closed down.

Bordois · 15/07/2021 12:24

Isnt part of the issue with the Netherlands that they had vaccinated far fewer people than the UK before they opened up? Not to say that we won't see similar happen here but perhaps not to the same levels?

sirfredfredgeorge · 15/07/2021 12:39

Isn't the issue with everywhere that all the countries have decided that spread is acceptable, but completely failed to mention or come up with policies that support or explain that process to people, so we're stuck in the ludicrous split state we have now.

MrsRussell · 15/07/2021 12:43

Anyone seen the Zoe findings today?
covid.joinzoe.com/post/new-cases-plateau-aead-of-freedom-day

According to ZOE COVID Study incidence figures, it is estimated that among unvaccinated people in the UK there are currently 17,581 new daily symptomatic cases of COVID on average, based on PCR test data from up to five days ago [*]. A decrease of 22% from 22,638 last week. Suggesting that the wave in the unvaccinated population has now peaked in the UK. The overall number of estimated cases is 33,118 which remains similar to last weeks which was 33,723.

It seems to indicate that we're now running out of unvaccinated people to infect. The graphs are interesting too.

sirfredfredgeorge · 15/07/2021 12:58

How representative does Zoe think it is now?

It's presumably much more likely that the average Zoe user gets the vaccine as soon as possible (given their investment) so you would've thought by now there would be a diminishing number of Zoe unvaccinated people and those that were are in some way extra careful given them not having the vaccine?

Bordois · 15/07/2021 12:58

Just trying to think this through, but thats good right? If unvaccinated people make up the majority of hospitalisations (do they?) then if cases are dropping for that cohort then that means less pressure on the NHS?