Austalian state likely can't contain Delta, will let it rip

[starfro]

www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-07/nsw-delta-variant-may-never-be-controlled/100273956

Be thankful that here most vulnerable people are double jabbed, whereas over there it's far, far fewer.

Delta cannot be contained, it's too transmissible.

Melbourne restrictions were able to be safely ended, with no following wave of Covid. That is the advantage of keeping a firm foot on an outbreak, rather than chasing around after it with inadequate brooms.

I have no idea which way this will go. To see all these new cases today that we’re out and about, contacts going from 7000 to 14,000 in one day is really worrying. Equally if people follow the rules it should end or at least spread it slowly instead of allowing the cases to just spread wildly.

Either Australia keeps borders closed and a never-ending cycle of lockdowns, or it gets a big Delta wave. I'd assume it would want to re-open at some point?

These are the only two possibilities here, unless new vaccines are invented that stop 90%+ transmission and the Aussies vaccinated their entire population with it.

We've contained large outbreaks twice before. Yes, this variant is more infectious, but we also have more experience. Also, large numbers of people have had the first dose, which does offer some protection. Not enough, but better than nothing. Yes, eventually we will have to let it in, but I would much prefer that it's after the end of this year, by which time most people should be vaccinated.

They won't lift restrictions, change the zero Covid strategy before vaccinations are to a required level.

The government here won't allow Covid to 'rip through' the country. They've managed brilliantly so far and will continue until the end of the year when we are vaxxed.

The lockdown is basically one city in the whole country, it's a big one but they will keep us locked down until they have it back under control with zero cases or close to zero.

They have stated that we do not have the options other countries do as we aren't well enough vaccinated. When we are we will change the approach. Not sure exactly how that's going to work but I'd guess they are watching the uk right now and seeing what happens as you guys are months ahead of us.

Agree @SelkieQualia and something else that goes in our favour for now is that people genuinely worry about catching it and so I think are quite likely to follow the rules. I hope!

@starfro

Either Australia keeps borders closed and a never-ending cycle of lockdowns, or it gets a big Delta wave. I'd assume it would want to re-open at some point?

These are the only two possibilities here, unless new vaccines are invented that stop 90%+ transmission and the Aussies vaccinated their entire population with it.

Opening up with an unvaccinated population and opening up at the end of the year with 95% of people vaccinated are very different prospects.

The trouble is as we’re finding in the U.K., quite a few double vaccinated people are still catching Covid.
So even with huge proportions jabbed, you still get Covid spread without quite strict restrictions.

Yes there would be spread but without the huge risk of serious illness or death.

I think everyone is saying same thing?

Once high proportion are fully vaccinated delta will spread but that’s better than now.

It’s likely containment will happen until the high proportion is reached.

And you have to remember that we haven't lived with any real restrictions since may last year in sydney. Which makes it tough but not unbearable to do this for a few more weeks.

I think that’s what we’re waiting to discover for sure. And I’m optimistic that the link between cases and serious illness is broken by vaccine.

But zero Covid, can’t happen without strict restrictions.

The reason for the zero Covid strategy has been to keep the population safe from serious illness and death, if the vaccines will prevent that then we will be safe to open.

Sure vaccines will prevent 90%+ of deaths, but you will still get a lot of people sick.

Vaccinating an entire population takes a long time, 9 months for UK.

And you'll have to deal with this as a fairly large fast wave due to a lack of underlying immunity. It won't be pretty.

Tbh m more concerned about the future disruption in schools which seems to be the biggest issue in the uk right now.

Assuming kids won't be vaccinated, when Covid does come it will be their education which suffers.

The reason for the zero Covid strategy has been to keep the population safe from serious illness and death, if the vaccines will prevent that then we will be safe to open.

They won’t do that entirely. People need to get used to that idea.

By the time Australia is ready to open its borders, Delta will be eclipsed by a squadron of new variants cooked up in the UK, among other places. Why people are 'worrying' about hypothetical futures in other countries, who have taken a different approach, rather than the shitstorm on their own horizon escapes me. All of this seems like ill-wishing born of jealousy, with a large sprinkle of denial.

completely agree Aus can't and shouldn't lift border restrictions now - that would be insanity and make all the 2020 restrictions ultimately pointless and a waste of a year.
But they should ( and some are) starting the conversation about when borders can be opened - what level of vaccination in the adult/ whole population will be acceptable to reduce deaths and keep them as low as possible. It needs to reach some kind of consensus to avoid a never ending limbo land.
This will in turn get people to understand that covid will come and spread throughout the country BUT it can be mitigated as much as possible by a wall of vaccine (but only if very high numbers of adults have their two jabs). Almost every adult has to be vaccinated - as some will not be able to and then there is the whole conversation about vaccinating under 18's (that we are having now in the UK).
Zero covid and applauding "donut days" just prevents this grown up conversation taking place as the population continue thinking everything is great and can stay as it is .
It's up to Politicians to start this debate and scientists / media too. But I see how politically fraught that is when the public demand hard lockdowns for each and every case and refuse to look at how the UK and Europe is managing now.
I've got no skin in this game although I do have NZ relatives and NZ seems to be rolling out the vaccine better than Australia as it seems more coherent and consistent there. They do seem to have an outline of a reopening strategy.
But they are still proud of their 2020 zero covid response (which I understand) and my aunt still thinks the world continues to look to them as the example, completely missing the point that in a post vaccine world everyone is moving on and no one is looking to them anymore (other than as an example to point out the long term problems with a zero covid approach)
Politicians should consider the old fable of King Canute trying to hold back the tide. Being honest with the people that not even a King has power over nature. It reminds me a bit of that.

@LovelaceBiggWither

No, if we keep our state borders closed, it won't necessarily spread to all states. The state closures are tightly monitored.

Gladys is not the only sane leader, she's the leader who had the chance to stop delta and chose for ideological reasons not to do so until her hand was forced.

NZ is still pursuing elimination but Australia is not. Once our vaccination rates are high enough we'll re-open the border.

The virus is airborne and has no respect for borders. Does the borders being closed mean that each state has to be self sufficient? Will it cause food shortages?

@sashagabadon

completely agree Aus can't and shouldn't lift border restrictions now - that would be insanity and make all the 2020 restrictions ultimately pointless and a waste of a year. But they should ( and some are) starting the conversation about when borders can be opened - what level of vaccination in the adult/ whole population will be acceptable to reduce deaths and keep them as low as possible. It needs to reach some kind of consensus to avoid a never ending limbo land. This will in turn get people to understand that covid will come and spread throughout the country BUT it can be mitigated as much as possible by a wall of vaccine (but only if very high numbers of adults have their two jabs). Almost every adult has to be vaccinated - as some will not be able to and then there is the whole conversation about vaccinating under 18's (that we are having now in the UK). Zero covid and applauding "donut days" just prevents this grown up conversation taking place as the population continue thinking everything is great and can stay as it is . It's up to Politicians to start this debate and scientists / media too. But I see how politically fraught that is when the public demand hard lockdowns for each and every case and refuse to look at how the UK and Europe is managing now. I've got no skin in this game although I do have NZ relatives and NZ seems to be rolling out the vaccine better than Australia as it seems more coherent and consistent there. They do seem to have an outline of a reopening strategy. But they are still proud of their 2020 zero covid response (which I understand) and my aunt still thinks the world continues to look to them as the example, completely missing the point that in a post vaccine world everyone is moving on and no one is looking to them anymore (other than as an example to point out the long term problems with a zero covid approach) Politicians should consider the old fable of King Canute trying to hold back the tide. Being honest with the people that not even a King has power over nature. It reminds me a bit of that.

There never was a long term zero covid policy. It was always about keeping it out FOR NOW, until more research could be done.

@TheLovelinessOfDemons
The distance from Perth to Sydney is comparable to Moscow to Lisbon, with thousands of ks of desert in between. So yeah, the virus respects that.

@TheLovelinessOfDemons no, food has gone between states throughout all the lockdowns.

@starfro

Either Australia keeps borders closed and a never-ending cycle of lockdowns, or it gets a big Delta wave. I'd assume it would want to re-open at some point?

These are the only two possibilities here, unless new vaccines are invented that stop 90%+ transmission and the Aussies vaccinated their entire population with it.

Well, 12 months ago everyone was saying that there would never be a vaccine against covid, so we should just "let it rip". In 12 months from now, we might have very effective vaccines.

The closed borders does work as essentially each state has a capital and everything else is very suburban or rural.

Each state has its own premier and they manage their own borders and travel between states as they see fit.

Melbourne/Victoria currently has no Covid, borders are strictly controlled and unless you had sydney people flying in and out it would stay that way. Those guys had some terrible strict lockdowns last year and will work hard to avoid any more.

The distances are so vast it's like between European countries so can be managed, it's not like borders between uk counties.

@starfro

Sure vaccines will prevent 90%+ of deaths, but you will still get a lot of people sick.

Vaccinating an entire population takes a long time, 9 months for UK.

And you'll have to deal with this as a fairly large fast wave due to a lack of underlying immunity. It won't be pretty.

I can’t tell by your posts if you are almost gleeful that people in Australia may die if covid takes hold or if you are concerned for them.

Australia is offering vaccines with a gap of 3 weeks between them rather than 12 weeks that the Uk opted for.
Hopefully that will quickly increase the amount of people who are fully vaccinated.

The main issue will be the supply of vaccines.