Austalian state likely can't contain Delta, will let it rip

[starfro]

www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-07/nsw-delta-variant-may-never-be-controlled/100273956

Be thankful that here most vulnerable people are double jabbed, whereas over there it's far, far fewer.

Delta cannot be contained, it's too transmissible.

There does need to be a different long term strategy. What is it? They won’t reach the required immunity by vaccinations as you can’t get to 97%, there’s no natural immunity in the population.

At some point they will have to accept cases and deaths. I guess the healthcare system out there can cope.

Pretty, it’s not me saying this. It’s the more sensible voices in Australia and yes they are watching how the U.K. manages with opening up with our high vaccinations rate ( which will never get to 97% here).

And I’m the meantime the final State of Origin match is being played (despite NSW having won the competition) in an area that currently has no cases of COVID. Great idea - not!

24,000 people at a football match that doesn’t need to be played, and you can guarantee people from the lockdown area will manage to sneak through.

@sashagabadon

Pretty, it’s not me saying this. It’s the more sensible voices in Australia and yes they are watching how the U.K. manages with opening up with our high vaccinations rate ( which will never get to 97% here).

Watching in horror. Awaiting the new variants that will result.

We have paid a massive amount for the "high levels of natural immunity" you imply make our position enviable. Countries that haven't wanted to pay that cost and preferred to get more immunity via vaccination later have saved a lot of lives and had a year in which most normal life, education, cancer treatment and so on have not stopped. We lost that.

The more they try to contain it, the more they encourage it to evolve towards even better transmissibility.

That’s really not how it works. The more it spreads the more likely you are to end up with a mutation that has better transmissibility. Letting it spread rapidly through a partially vaccinated population makes it even more ‘interesting’.

It does look like delta is containable, it’s just a case of choosing whether to do it and when to do it.

Seriously, nobody here is watching the Uk for guidance on how to deal with Covid. Quite the contrary! I am in WA where we have had nine deaths. In total. I don't know anyone who would swap places with the UK, in fact, while a lot of us are sad that we won't be able to see our folks for at least another year, everyone I l know believes that is just the price we have to pay for leading a normal daily life. Oh we did have another lockdown though, it lasted four days last week and we are down to zero community transmission again. I just hope all my friends and family in the UK are going to be ok, I know a lot of them are really worried about the re-opening.

Oh and we do have a strategy for re-opening, but we will take it slow and make sure everyone that wants to be vaccinated first can be. We are in a fortunate position where we can wait for that, as our economy is booming too.

The whole world IS watching the U.K. (and Israel) right now to see how well the vaccines cope with limited and then no restrictions. Australia included, because one day, inevitably, the vaccinated population there must meet the virus.

Tbh (speaking from Australia) we just need to get our vaccination rates up massively and our quarantine system to a point where people could come and go more freely (while still quarantining for 10-14 days) if vaccinated. At the moment I think there is enough chance that variants will soon escape vaccinations that I would put up with quarantine being a permanent thing providing it didn't cost much (maybe home detention anklets or something) and the capacity was huge. It is really awful that there are still people who can't get home

We live fairly normal lives mainly free of fear. It is hard to put a price on that. I am in no rush to start bombing off around the world again- I would just like the opportunity to see my family in the UK every so often. Otherwise we can be fairly self sufficient. We can have everything from ski holidays to tropical beach holidays without leaving Australia. Its not ideal but its not exactly a hardship. Our economy is doing beautifully and life is easy.

NSW is not "letting it rip" It is trying to get down to zero again because none of the other states will open up until they do. We have a hugely vulnerable population in the Northern Territory particularly that NO one will risk.

I think it is probably hard from the UK to understand how strictly we control it here (which in return means most of the time we can have very relaxed restrictions) They literally put a town into lockdown for 2 days because someone who was in the airport there for a few hours developed covid a few days later. No messing around.

@IndigoC

The whole world IS watching the U.K. (and Israel) right now to see how well the vaccines cope with limited and then no restrictions. Australia included, because one day, inevitably, the vaccinated population there must meet the virus.

Yes it might not be guidance as pp put it but all countries will be entering the same post-vaccination phase at some point so will look at what happens.

Anyone sensible with an eye on the future is exactly watching the U.K.. we have relatively high vaccinations rates and are (rightly or wrongly) going for a living with Covid scenario. It’s a very good lesson on how other countries can open up too especially zero Covid countries. It’ll give some evidence as to the vaccination levels needed n Australia and New Zealand, some estimate to be 97%.
The conversation is definitely turning in Australia even if not among the people. The scientist and commentators are starting to think about what living with Covid means for Australia and what level of vaccination is necessary. I think 2022 will be a difficult year.
It’s all about vaccination now. The higher the rate the better for all countries but even more so for zero Covid countries. Singapore is also moving to a “living with” scenario. Any country that doesn’t will get left behind.

They're not looking in "wish we were doing that right now on the back of 100,000+ deaths" way, though. They're watching to see what happens, while knowing their citizens will have had an extra one to two years of a thriving economy and normal medical care before having to do a similar thing. And while knowing that if it goes more wrong for us, they can learn from that and do something different.

@tiltedtomatoes

They're not looking in "wish we were doing that right now on the back of 100,000+ deaths" way, though. They're watching to see what happens, while knowing their citizens will have had an extra one to two years of a thriving economy and normal medical care before having to do a similar thing. And while knowing that if it goes more wrong for us, they can learn from that and do something different.

Well yeh of course.

No one would choose to go through what we have. It’s been very tough.

Hence the article below and warnings - so residents don’t go out for shopping etc if they don’t have to.

All countries will arrive at same point though even if one path has been closed off and nicer and others not - and hard.

I think everyone agrees that every country needs to reach herd immunity at some point. Just when and how. Vaccines in a high take up country like the U.K. will get us to maybe 80% including children, we’re at about 50% whole population I think at the moment plus we have some natural immunity too. Is that enough for the U.K.?
No one really knows but it’s certain that Australia will need a higher vaccine take up than we do.
It’ll be interesting to see what happens here in U.K. / Europe and then also what happens in zero Covid countries like Australia and Singapore too.

@PotassiumChloride

Why does this virus “rip” as opposed to “spread rapidly”?

I'd like to ban the phrase 'let it rip', along with 'non-essntial', 'stay safe', 'selfish', and 'the virus doesn't care about...'

And several other trite expressions that I can't think of at the momnt.

www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/global/reckless-countrys-extreme-gamble-with-covid19/news-story/06213595ce54e945168e4c7f6b3d34ee

www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/global/uk-expert-claims-easing-covid19-restrictions-will-create-variant-factories/news-story/195a69c7fea6f8227db12bd5eb88f9d2

www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/global/united-kingdom-now-a-petri-dish-for-the-world-as-delta-and-vaccines-rise/news-story/4dab1a93ce3087957ff2c520a053f5c0

www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-06/boris-johnson-masks-covid-19-restrictions-england/100269566

Just a few (non-paywalled) articles on the view from Australia...

I’d like to ban the phrase 'let it rip', along with 'non-essntial', 'stay safe', 'selfish', and 'the virus doesn't care about...'

Totally Iced

Throw ‘British Exceptionalism’ and ‘defeatist’ in there too. So overused and meaningless. And ‘Petri dish’ sod off with that one.

Aussie press really going for the fear factor there! Trouble is, fear is very hard to unwind in the population. It’s reckless imo.
Fear was used a lot in the U.K. too in 2020, still is today to some extent but conversation is more nuanced now and other voices get heard.
It’ll be interesting to see at what level of vaccination Australia do think is safe to open up. It’ll have to be a significantly higher percentage than the U.K. or they’ll be accusations of Australia’s “recklessness” and “extreme gambling” and “Petri dish of the world”.

Oh yes OZ is such a shining beacon...stranding thousands of its citizens abroad and still they didn't keep delta out

@MarshaBradyo

I’d like to ban the phrase 'let it rip', along with 'non-essntial', 'stay safe', 'selfish', and 'the virus doesn't care about...'

Totally Iced

Throw ‘British Exceptionalism’ and ‘defeatist’ in there too. So overused and meaningless. And ‘Petri dish’ sod off with that one.

Just after I posted I saw another of my faves: 'watching in horror'. Ozzies must be a pretty sheltered lot.

I'm not sure if 'laughing stock of the world' has been mentioned yet, but if not it's surely only a matter of time.

Farm from letting it rip Gladys is saying she hasn't ruled out further measures in specific areas:

"Premier Gladys Berejiklian said “the next nine or 10 days will determine how we live” until the end of the year, stressing she wanted this to be the last lockdown in Sydney before the majority of the city’s population was vaccinated.

She warned case numbers to be announced on Thursday were likely to be higher, with “concerning statistics on what is happening” in the three LGAs of concern as transmission occurred among families and households in Sydney’s south-west.

“The NSW government doesn’t want to go to the next stage but we are considering if there are any further actions we need to take in those three local government areas,” she said."

Just read one of those articles, the reckless country one, comments are actually a bit less dramatic. Many getting the situation. A few not. One makes the same point as me, This is how it’s going to be for every country, like it or not.
U.K. going now as it’s our summer and we have high 80% ish single dose and 50% double dose with every adult offered the 2 doses by September. The question for all countries not just the U.K. is when to open up and what level of population vaccination is acceptable or more likely actually achievable. If it’s not 80% single dose and summer time, then when?

Oh and we do have a strategy for re-opening, but we will take it slow and make sure everyone that wants to be vaccinated first can be. We are in a fortunate position where we can wait for that, as our economy is booming too.

How long for?

What if not enough people want to be vaccinated, will you stay closed forever? Or start forcing jabs into arms?

I agree with the "kicking the can further down the road" comment. We have had a lot of deaths yes, but I'd rather be where we are now than in Oz with (potentially) all that crap still to go through and also cut off from the rest of the word... we are hopefully through the worst now.

Not everyone will be able to be vaccinated, children for example. Plus people that don’t want to be.
You won’t hit the required %. I think it’s been great for you all but unfortunately there will be tough times ahead now. And tough decisions for the government.

@Doublestar

Oh and we do have a strategy for re-opening, but we will take it slow and make sure everyone that wants to be vaccinated first can be. We are in a fortunate position where we can wait for that, as our economy is booming too.

How long for?

What if not enough people want to be vaccinated, will you stay closed forever? Or start forcing jabs into arms?

I agree with the "kicking the can further down the road" comment. We have had a lot of deaths yes, but I'd rather be where we are now than in Oz with (potentially) all that crap still to go through and also cut off from the rest of the word... we are hopefully through the worst now.

This exactly.