Austalian state likely can't contain Delta, will let it rip

[starfro]

www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-07/nsw-delta-variant-may-never-be-controlled/100273956

Be thankful that here most vulnerable people are double jabbed, whereas over there it's far, far fewer.

Delta cannot be contained, it's too transmissible.

@Wakeupin2022

Callinda that seems a reasonable plan. Unfortunately I think NSW at least will be in lockdown until Phase A is completed. That will be tough. But it will save lives. The problem is when people get really fed up with it and start breaking the rules but percentage vaccinated is still too low

Victoria - who knows! I suspect if they are not in a long lockdown then they could be in one every other week, which might actually be more counter productive than the NSW lockdown.

It's a hard road ahead, but the decisions made so far has meant you have been saved the worst of the deaths and hospitalizations.

I hope the vaccinations really start making a difference soon, although I am a bit concerned with the priority list. In Italy we saw that vaccinating teachers early was a disaster and lots died. I hope that enough vulnerable people are vaccinated in Austrailia.

Vaccinating or not vaccinating teachers was a disaster? At the moment teachers aren't eligible here (unless they are over 40) as they aren't in the "frontline workers" group. There wouldn't be enough supply to do it right now. But I think some supplies were being diverted in NSW to allow final year high school students and teachers in hotspots to be vaccinated so they could get back in school for exams.

Vulnerable, frontline workers and over 40's are all eligible now so if any in those groups are not vaccinated yet it would be through their own choice.

callinda in Italy you had young teachers being vaccinated before 90 year old for example.

That cost lives sadly.

But if all vulnerable have been offered a vaccine then it is good to do essential workers.

Under 40's can also be vaccinated if they accept the AZ vaccine. DS (late 20's) is in Sydney and had his first vaccine 5 weeks ago.

Thanks. So phase a is 70% uptake in the eligible population not the whole population. For phase C 80% vaccinated in the whole population seems to me to be rather ambitious. Do you think that is seen as achievable? Is there any information about the ‘acceptable’ level of hospitalisations in stage C?

I agree that vaccinating the year 12 students doesn’t seem a sensible use of the limited supplies of vaccine. This age group are not likely to be very ill and it seems increasingly likely that vaccination does not stop transmission. One of the things we have got right in the U.K. is the vaccination priority list and the impact of this can be seen when compared to e.g. the USA.

The year 12 students are due to sit their HSC in October and it's only offered to the 8 LGA areas which are current hotspots. Not all yr 12s

Totally agree wrt testing. Lockdowns don’t seem to be effective against the delta variant but Imo the places with mass testing have avoided the worst of the lockdowns and high infections.

They are funneling vaccines from what are for now unaffected areas, to hotspots in NSW.

NSW is larger than the state of Texas.

@newstart1234

Thanks. So phase a is 70% uptake in the eligible population not the whole population. For phase C 80% vaccinated in the whole population seems to me to be rather ambitious. Do you think that is seen as achievable? Is there any information about the ‘acceptable’ level of hospitalisations in stage C?

It's 80% of eligible population also, so yep totally achievable.

No specific figures for the hospitalisations but it would be based on local capacity so I imagine it would be different everywhere.

Are children going to be eligible? 80% seems still very high. Maybe they will find a way of controlling covid with testing also. I just feel sorry for the stranded families and friends but it’s clear that Australia has done very well. I didn’t know that Australia quarantined themselves during the Spanish flu pandemic too. Learnt that from watching QI 🙂

It’s 80% of eligible people offered as far as I understand. So once there is capacity for 80% of eligible people, if they choose not to, it won’t hold the rest of us back.

Yes children 12-16 will be eligible, it was approved a couple of weeks back

And anyone over 18 is now eligible for the AZ, Pfizer is still only available for over 40s.

Pfizer is also available to anyone under 40 who works in certain key services, or has a relevant medical condition. The Pfizer appointments are hard to get but it is possible.

Sorry that should be anyone over 18

@Ozgirl75

It’s 80% of eligible people offered as far as I understand. So once there is capacity for 80% of eligible people, if they choose not to, it won’t hold the rest of us back.

I think the potential difficulty with this is if significant enough numbers refuse/are not vaccinated for any reason (even if the supply is there) there could be a healthcare capacity issue? So you can almost be held back anyway if that makes sense?

I know vaccine uptake is generally pretty good in Aus though so hopefully that will prove to be the case now too and get the numbers up to where they need to be ASAP.

Has there been any modelling released on expected levels of hospitalisations etc. once the 80% figure is reached and restrictions are released?

I can foresee a scenario where NSW are out the other side with high enough vaccination to relax borders but other states are lagging far behind particularly WA and NT.
The debate will then shift to what to do when vaccination rates are not uniform everywhere. I guess the lower vaxed states could then stay closed with regular lockdowns and the higher states could open?
It’s obviously better to move together but with such a massive country with different / opposing strategies between the states I’m not sure that’s feasible?

80% of people offered a vaccine seems very low to be largely removing restrictions. I think even the UK had more people offered than that when restrictions were mostly lifted. It’s may be a moot point anyway because the plan can change of course. I suspect it will because 80% coverage is very unlikely. The abc article above says 80% population vaccinated not 80% population offered vaccine. Abc may have got it wrong of course.

It's 80% of eligible population to be fully vaccinated:
All but the most highly targeted lockdowns will end and the country will begin to reopen its international borders once 80 per cent of eligible Australians are fully vaccinated against COVID-19, Prime Minister Scott Morrison says.

www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-30/national-cabinet-update-covid19-support-vaccine-targets/100338334

Yes but if they offer it to everyone and then people don’t take it and we get to 75%, they’ll open up anyway. Although I actually think we’ll get 80%, we’re generally a very pro vaccine country.

@Wakeupin2022

I don't think all of NSW is in lockdown though?

Correct

[quote chatw0o0]It's 80% of eligible population to be fully vaccinated:
All but the most highly targeted lockdowns will end and the country will begin to reopen its international borders once 80 per cent of eligible Australians are fully vaccinated against COVID-19, Prime Minister Scott Morrison says.

www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-30/national-cabinet-update-covid19-support-vaccine-targets/100338334[/quote]
I’ll believe it when I see it. McGown in WA has already said he’ll still do lockdowns at 80% vaccinated in necessary and all know how much Morrison and the federal government have over the states (none).

The only good thing about the current situation is it has sped up the population getting vaccinated. I’m in Adelaide with now known cases and 30 something friends of mine are talking about getting AZ. Of course the red tape involved for under 60’s here is ridiculous. Once we get a decent supply of Pfizer that can be delivered to 16 and overs in hubs that will really help.

@bluetongue - agree on the hoop jumping re AZ for under-60s. I had two conversations with my GP about it... (as part of over-40 cohort).

The first time he advised to wait for Pfizer, based partly on where I live in Syd - ie, there was no immediate rush (!).

Second conversation was after it became clear that Pfizer wasn't arriving any time soon, and I'd like to get my first AZ jab please!

If people aren't going to other people's homes, or to work or to school, how is it being spread?? THAT'S the point of a lockdown.

Are you a bit dim? Unless you fancy living without food, water, electricity, medical care and other things, a lot of workplaces as well as places like hospitals will have to be open during lockdown, no matter how "strict" it is. Many of the people working there will have dependent kids, so either some kind of childcare center provision or a skeleton school service for essential workers' children will have to stay open too and many children will go there. People will also spread COVID about in their own households, to other family members. People in hospitals can spread it to each other and to HCWs as well.

It doesn't matter how strict the lockdown is and it doesn't matter how carefully people try to adhere to the rules-you cannot shut down all possibilities for transmission, which is why it is very hard to completely eliminate the virus through lockdown unless you move very quickly, before the virus has become seeded in households and essential workplaces-and even then, there will be a very large element of luck involved. NSW was probably unlucky this time. But it was inevitably going to happen at some point.

Regarding kids receiving the vaccine, I'm fairly certain I saw on the news that Indigenous kids would get top priority. As too do year 12 students living in hotspots --not sure if that includes their families as well or just the students.

I've been pretty surprised at the low vaccination rate for Covid here. Usually we're a highly vaccinated country - (except for the "Byron Bay type") but there are probably many reasons for that. Hopefully it will pick up soon (I hope, I don't want to be in lockdown at Christmas)