Austalian state likely can't contain Delta, will let it rip

[starfro]

www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-07/nsw-delta-variant-may-never-be-controlled/100273956

Be thankful that here most vulnerable people are double jabbed, whereas over there it's far, far fewer.

Delta cannot be contained, it's too transmissible.

It can be contained but it’s really hard and there is leakage. Singapore are doing pretty well. But they are really strict and enforce the rules. They are also advanced in vaccinations, which helps.

To be fair, I think the idea of accepting community spread is only being floated as a possibility--the no. of cases still seems very low.

Hopefully, this will light a few firecrackers under everyone's chairs and speed up the vaccine rollout over there.

That’s a big change but yes maybe it won’t go ahead

Gladys is a cowbag who didn't shut down in time on principle. She's bleated on that NSW will never go into lockdown on her watch. She was forced to order NSW into lockdown when the numbers got too high even for her. Lockdown and circuit breakers have worked in other states because our premiers call for them very early on. We had a 3 day lockdown last week here in Q with an extension of a couple days for the city of Brisbane. It worked, the delta variant has not taken hold here as yet.

Unfortunately the vaccination debacle is not a state issue, it's a federal issue and Scummo has fucked that duck well and truly. I'm just hoping that the grassroots fury at this mess sees him dumped at the next election.

Why does this virus “rip” as opposed to “spread rapidly”?

Gladys seems to be the only sane leader in Oz IMO.

New Zealand recently released a report from their scientists that concluded with Delta they’d need 97% of the population to be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity. Something that’s basically impossible.

Hard decisions lie ahead for the zero Covid nations. And eventually Delta, or the next even more contagious variant, will take it out of their hands.

The OP is an inaccurate representation of that article and the NSW government’s position, though. They are not giving up or advocating for letting it rip. They are warning if people don’t comply there may be no choice but to live with it. It’s likely an empty threat. But it does indicate NSW’s likely position once everyone is vaccinated who wants to be vaccinated later in the year.

@PotassiumChloride

Why does this virus “rip” as opposed to “spread rapidly”?

Because it sounds more aggressive and scary?

Usually it ‘rips’ through settings until someone mentions antibodies then suddenly it has done the opposite.

But yes agree with pp this is more a warning so people do what is asked

It's okay. Scomo will pray the Covid away. Glad I live in South Australia. The NSW government are a bunch of ideologically led idiots.

Glad I live in South Australia

Surely once it has spread through any part of Australia, it will spread to all areas?

No, if we keep our state borders closed, it won't necessarily spread to all states. The state closures are tightly monitored.

Gladys is not the only sane leader, she's the leader who had the chance to stop delta and chose for ideological reasons not to do so until her hand was forced.

NZ is still pursuing elimination but Australia is not. Once our vaccination rates are high enough we'll re-open the border.

@starfro

www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-07/nsw-delta-variant-may-never-be-controlled/100273956

Be thankful that here most vulnerable people are double jabbed, whereas over there it's far, far fewer.

Delta cannot be contained, it's too transmissible.

It can be contained to some extent. Governments are choosing not to try.

The best thing any country can be doing right now is getting vaccines in arms as fast as humanly possible. Then the inevitable rip isn't so problematic.

@TheYearOfSmallThings

Our borders are closed to most people from NSW except those in border communities. And have already been for a few weeks.

Even returning SA residents have to do two weeks quarantine.

@TheKeatingFive Exactly right but our Federal government was in charge of the vaccine rollout instead of the states and it has been astoundingly slow.

Instead of using the existing networks that deliver the flu vaccine every year of course there had to be new contracts, new deals. Someone had to make more money.

@TheKeatingFive

The best thing any country can be doing right now is getting vaccines in arms as fast as humanly possible. Then the inevitable rip isn't so problematic.

Agree. But given the Australian public appears to be terrified of even a handful of cases of Covid it’s hard to imagine them ever moving beyond their current draconian all borders closed position, even when 80% of the population is vaccinated. Interesting times ahead.

No, if we keep our state borders closed, it won't necessarily spread to all states. The state closures are tightly monitored.

Honestly, if the virus were to spread "big time" in one state, I really don't think it could easily be kept out of other parts of Australia for long. Land borders without the "stopping power of water" seem to be a bit different in this respect. (Not saying it will be allowed to spread unchecked in NSW, mind you.)

@starfro

www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-07/nsw-delta-variant-may-never-be-controlled/100273956

Be thankful that here most vulnerable people are double jabbed, whereas over there it's far, far fewer.

Delta cannot be contained, it's too transmissible.

Oh dear then. It could be quite bad for them.

The more they try to contain it, the more they encourage it to evolve towards even better transmissibility.

TBH, unless they contain it totally, they probably are better off Instead trying to direct and controlling how it spreads, and trying best they can to go around the really vulnerable.

Actually, rather like what we should have done at the start, before we had delta… Anyway, lost that argument.

Imo it’s inevitable that Covid will spread throughout Aus and NZ eventually. It’s just a question of when. It can’t be stopped and shut borders just kick the fan down the road. Both countries need an impossibly high level of vaccination including children. It can’t realistically be achieved.
Conversation over there does seem to be changing and some people are realising what a predicament they are in now and that zero Covid is false narrative.
They do have the benefit of watching us opening up to see how much vaccination helps but we have high levels of natural immunity which they don’t have so they need more vaccination. It seems the politicians are still lockdown enthusiasts but more sensible people are starting to think about changing the conversation to living with Covid ( just like we have had to as well, we’re just further on in the process)
2022 will be a tough year for both countries I think.

@Kokeshi123 Victoria had a major outbreak last year and it didn't spread to us. Everyone coming into the state had to do two weeks in a hotel. The state borders don't actually have a lot of roads that cross them so the police were able to put checkpoints on most.

Plus while you're driving to the next town your number plate shows prominently which state you are from.

It's been very different here from the UK.

347 locally acquired cases in the outbreak in NSW, currently; mostly in the Greater Sydney region which is locked down. (400-500 in total in the whole of Australia, many of which are overseas arrivals, in quarantine).

28,000 plus daily, in the UK now. 186,422 people tested positive reported in the last 7 days...

PS: Ridiculous thread title, grossly and gloatingly misinterpreting that article.

@sashagabadon

Imo it’s inevitable that Covid will spread throughout Aus and NZ eventually. It’s just a question of when. It can’t be stopped and shut borders just kick the fan down the road. Both countries need an impossibly high level of vaccination including children. It can’t realistically be achieved. Conversation over there does seem to be changing and some people are realising what a predicament they are in now and that zero Covid is false narrative. They do have the benefit of watching us opening up to see how much vaccination helps but we have high levels of natural immunity which they don’t have so they need more vaccination. It seems the politicians are still lockdown enthusiasts but more sensible people are starting to think about changing the conversation to living with Covid ( just like we have had to as well, we’re just further on in the process) 2022 will be a tough year for both countries I think.

Wth?! You can't honestly believe that? Trust me, no one in Australia or NZ is "looking to the UK" for guidance on pandemic management. That is a ludicrous suggestion, delusional.

Both NZ and Australia have managed brilliantly and have largely continued life as usual. By contrast, the UK situation has been appalling.

Of course NZ and Australia will continue to perform well. The vaccine roll out does seem a little slow but for different reasons, mainly that it hasn't been a priority because there is virtually no covid so it was agreed that supplies should be prioritised for countries with more pressing need. Secondly, NZ and Australia can afford to sit back and wait for vaccine results to come in and use those to inform the roll out. Plus there have been supply issues which is something many countries have experienced.