Austalian state likely can't contain Delta, will let it rip

[starfro]

www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-07/nsw-delta-variant-may-never-be-controlled/100273956

Be thankful that here most vulnerable people are double jabbed, whereas over there it's far, far fewer.

Delta cannot be contained, it's too transmissible.

@MoppaSprings I think there is a level of glee that Australia, that has done so well so far, is now going through this. I’m not sure why, it’s strange that people would want that.

It is odd. I think it might be that some people were opposed to lockdown in the UK and kept saying "lockdowns don't work". They were annoyed by the example of Australia showing that lockdown does indeed work.

In Australia we do transport food and other goods between states and there is exemptions for drivers to do that. They have to follow extra rules and it has generally not caused any problems.

In relation to reaching high levels of vaccination before opening up one thing that has not been mentioned is that culturally we already have far greater requirements for childhood vaccinations and restrictions on those who refuse. For example you cannot send unvaccinated children to most childcare here. You also do not receive some child benefits of you don't vaccinate them. This means culturally such requirements are more accepted and similar could be used for covid jabs.

Lockdowns only delay, so in that sense they do work but aren't a long-term strategy.

I'm not anti-lockdown where it has a benefit (like waiting for a vaccine). Locking down until a vaccine came along was incredibly risky, but has worked out for Aus/NZ, or at least it was working pre-Delta. Whether lockdown will stop Delta spread is less clear. I think that Australia will be in either constant lockdown, or continual cycles of it, until they decide to let it spread.

However, not many people have come to the realisation that Delta changes everything because Herd Immunity by vaccination alone is no longer possible, and that a large wave of infections is now inevitable everywhere. Europe is just starting to see this wave and it will be quite bad in places with low immunity. The UK will fare much better.

No glee here.
I’ve a show due to go into production in Australia. We’re all desperate to film there if at all possible.
Probably why I’m so interested in what’s happening there (plus some mates who emigrated).

Not glee. Mixed emotions

I’m Aus / Brit and unable to come home but I’d rather my parents not be exposed to Covid, I’m 46 and have had vaccine, they will too but obviously older. Should be ok but still

Lockdowns only delay, so in that sense they do work but aren't a long-term strategy.

Australia is not throbbing with Covid, after the last outbreak and consequent lockdown. I expect they will stamp out this new outbreak similarly.

I don't know what your point is, really - but I will never forget the way you confidently posted, several times, declaring the pandemic was over, back in November. Might be time to admit you were wrong in the titling of this thread and in many of your confident assertions here.

My modelling was very similar to SAGE's back then, in fact mine was actually more pessimistic.

Neither forecast the arrival of the Alpha variant, this was a big surprise and messed up all the calculations.

Now we're here with a new variant, and again everything changes massively

I think it's really hard to predict. Some countries like Thailand managed the first wave of COVID really successfully but Delta appears to be getting the better of them. On the other hand Taiwan looks like it is starting to stamp out Delta, despite low vaccination rates. It appears that it can be done.

Either way, personally I'd be getting that AstraZeneca out the loft and using it, but I tend to be very gung ho about vaccines in general.

Thing is, Australia has been in cycles of short lockdowns (and a much longer one in Melbourne) so it isn’t like we’ve all just been doing whatever we like here - we’ve all made changes, checking in everywhere we go, masks on at various points, shorter lockdowns etc. Yes, daily life has been very good but it hasn’t been completely normal - plus the price we paid was cutting ourselves off. If there were some benefits of that, good for us, but it hasn’t been a total bed of roses.

Lockdowns were always the short term solution while we got the population vaccinated is what I mean. The plan had been to vaccinate everyone by October, now it looks like the end of the year.

Delta has exploded here with over 80% half vaccinated and 60% fully vaccinated so it will need to be a pretty harsh lockdown with huge compliance to Contain it in a unvaccinated population

I feel worried for Aus.

oz exactly.
I do roll my eyes at a certain poster who says that things are perfectly ‘normal’ in Australia.
People are still making sacrifices.
My friend has not been able to come home to the U.K. with her new baby which isn’t nothing. And I know she worries her older relatives will die without ever meeting her daughter.

Similarly, I know that everyone in Australia on our show is desperate to crack on. Many of them have worked for years to get to this point. If it ends up us having to take production elsewhere that’s not nothing to those involved.

@starfro

My modelling was very similar to SAGE's back then, in fact mine was actually more pessimistic.

Neither forecast the arrival of the Alpha variant, this was a big surprise and messed up all the calculations.

Now we're here with a new variant, and again everything changes massively

I'd work on your current modelling for the UK and stop ill-wishing Australians if I were you.

Well, no, if I actually were you - first, I would admit I was wrong. You've misread the article you linked in your OP, and you've created an alarmist and inaccurate thread title, and now you are twisting reality into a new shape to avoid admitting you were wrong when you told several threads like some suave authority that the pandemic was over, back in early November, when clearly it wasn't. And you are wrong about Australia's current position, also.

I've said that the Alpha variant took us all by surprise. Before that our predictions were pretty good with a broad winter peak (very similar to Europe).

Australia will have to "let it rip" at some point, and there will be a wave of infections. Whether it comes in a controlled way, or uncontrolled, is yet to be seen. It will be interesting to watch.

Very very tentative signs we're reaching our peak here, which is excellent news!

My understanding is that VE is best with an 8-12 week gap. I had a 4 week gap myself between Pfizer jabs which is worrying me a bit.

I’m sorry to say that you don’t come across very well when you talk of watching Australians getting sick and probably dying as “interesting”. When British people were dying in their thousands I didn’t hear anyone over here saying “well they brought it on themselves” or “oh, interesting to watch these people suffocate to death”, no, we worried about families and strangers and talked about how awful it looked and yes, there was a little blame of the leaders but we mostly realised that this was a novel thing happening and everyone was just making decisions based on the information they had at this point.
But saying it’s “interesting”? Just, have some compassion.

It's not the whole of Australia - only Greater Sydney is in lockdown at the moment. I'm in Queensland and we have no lockdown, only mask wearing, track and trace , etc. We had zero cases yesterday, Sydney had 45 which triggered the extended lockdown.

So no , the Gov't isn't "letting it rip" in any way.

And it bears repeating that many of our indigenous population are highly vulnerable. We could lose entire communities. Which begs the question of why the fuck haven't we been getting everyone vaccinated as fast as possible?
Our pompous idiot prime Minister recently said. 'it's not a race.' It is.

re. the indigenous population - that's a good point - it is something we forget in the UK to consider (or i do) as we don't have one - unless you count the original Britons or Celts and no one would know who they were (ginger hair might be a Celt clue) . The UK has been invaded so many times over the centuries (Romans, Saxons, Normans etc) the idea of indigenous people isn't really a thing.

Is this issue that these populations/ communities are remote? Therefore have lower immunity generally to say City dwellers?
I read a story about people being outraged as a whole class of school boys in a posh rich school was vaccinated recently when only the indigenous students should have been.
I was trying to understand the outrage (as presumably all the boys mixed together anyway and so to me it would make sense to protect all of them - similar to care homes where everyone gets the jab) but then I wondered if the logic was that these boys will return to their communities soon potentially bringing virus with them?

Yes, many of the communities are extremely remote, particularly in WA and NT. Many here would rely on flying drs getting to them, or limited community healthcare - my friend has worked as community nurse out of Kunnanara, engagement can be difficult and trust is hard to get. Unfortunately the health outcomes are a lot worse generally, and as has been seen with native Americans, the impact would likely be devastating.

The health of indigenous Australians tends to be much worse due to a number of things - much higher rates of diabetes, alcoholism, drug abuse etc. There may also be a lower immunity of those in the very remote communities due to less exposure to viruses from the general population. It’s a difficult issue. But I know there has been a very concerted effort to vaccinate those in remote communities.

thanks Det - yes I can see why this population need to be prioritised in the roll out for the reasons you give.

And yes just a general lack of healthcare facilities in remote communities.

Plus after years and years of mistreatment and suffering at the hands of government, a lot of the indigenous population mistrust the people making the decisions.