Austalian state likely can't contain Delta, will let it rip

[starfro]

www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-07/nsw-delta-variant-may-never-be-controlled/100273956

Be thankful that here most vulnerable people are double jabbed, whereas over there it's far, far fewer.

Delta cannot be contained, it's too transmissible.

Going back to yesterday’s news about the requirement for non-resident Australian citizens to apply for a permit to LEAVE the country... I read the PR behind it from the government, something about tying up loopholes and enabling more quarantine spaces for citizens wanting to return permanently, because there were instances of Australians returning multiple times.

Does anyone else think that this is just the federal government trying to wrestle back the narrative from a story that has quite quickly gone badly for them? The reality is that the arrivals caps are so low that this new policy can’t have any effect, all it does it just sound like the government are doing something, without actually needing to do anything.

LEAVING the country does not pose any risk to the local community, and the risk from those entering the country has been (apparently) brought down to a manageable level by the arrivals cap.

It’s just a pointless policy. If they wanted to reduce the risk even further then just reduce the cap. Making non-resident Australians apply to leave will have zero effect on the COVID risk from overseas visitors. It’s not like there are spare seats going on these flights into Australia and they want to push the demand down even lower...

The government set in place a policy that basically allowed only those with money to return to Australia, and now seem to be blaming those ‘rich’ Australians for taking away seats on multiple flights in and out of the country from those who want to be permanently repatriated.

Honestly, I can’t believe that no-one has called them out on this yet... it’s pretty shameless...

Blackbird yes, my feeling is it's nothing to do with risk at all - they want a policy that reduces the number of overseas citizens trying to get in so they can claim to have reduced the number of people wanting HQ spots, which is a constant source of bad PR, but they can't directly ban them from entry because that would look even worse. (I've also heard it suggested that it would be overturned by the courts as it would be a human rights breach, but I don't know the ins and outs of all that.) So instead they effectively ban outward travel, knowing that in practice it'll have the same effect, and couch it in the language of 'closing loopholes' as though people have been exploiting some sneaky strategy for... unfairly leaving the country? I guess?

And there are people calling them out, it just seems to be getting buried beneath (understandable) anger over lockdowns and concern about the situation in NSW. I don't know how many people even within Australia realise how difficult it is in practice to get an exemption to leave, so a lot of people are probably thinking it doesn't matter too much because the people affected can still apply for one.

@psychomath

Blackbird yes, my feeling is it's nothing to do with risk at all - they want a policy that reduces the number of overseas citizens trying to get in so they can claim to have reduced the number of people wanting HQ spots, which is a constant source of bad PR, but they can't directly ban them from entry because that would look even worse. (I've also heard it suggested that it would be overturned by the courts as it would be a human rights breach, but I don't know the ins and outs of all that.) So instead they effectively ban outward travel, knowing that in practice it'll have the same effect, and couch it in the language of 'closing loopholes' as though people have been exploiting some sneaky strategy for... unfairly leaving the country? I guess?

I think they must have had internal advice that outright denying citizens entry was legally problematic as they’re doing every the can to deter entry anyway without doing actually that.

The only way in at the moment is to pay £10-15,000 for a one way ticket that may or may not fly on the day. It’s senselessly unpredictable. Many people have sold their homes, terminated their employment and then been bounced off their flight, rendering them homeless in a foreign country. The QANTAS repatriation flights are rare, reserved for people in vulnerable situations and also made available only at very short notice. It’s impossible to plan.

At least NZ allows people to first book a slot in quarantine online and then allows people to fly in unrestricted if they have a booking. It makes it possible to plan.

And now, for those not planning a permanent move, there is another layer of unpredictability — will you ever be able to leave Oz again?

This is simply Aussie's version of "inadequately exercising in the park", "sitting on park benches", "bringing a picnic on a walk", "parking the car to eat a sandwich on the way home from work" and "two women walking with coffee".

Bonkers nonsense which is irrelevant to covid.

The backlash will build there as it did here.

It’s a bit concerning for those of us who are Aus citizens. Not that it’s easy to go back but making it harder still is worrying.

There are protests against lockdowns atm there but not sure how much it’s a story there compared to here.

The backlash will build there as it did here.

I'm sure you're right - feels like it's taking a bloody long time to build for the people affected by it, though!

I can't work out what the thinking is in NSW government at the moment, whether they're still hoping they can get back to zero covid eventually or if they've tacitly abandoned that strategy and just haven't admitted to it yet. Tbh I'm not sure they even know themselves... If it's the latter, once it becomes obvious to everyone I wonder if they'll start to allow home quarantine for vaccinated citizens coming in from overseas. As someone said upthread, how much difference would a handful of potential leaks really make if you have hundreds or thousands of cases already?

@psychomath I read today that Gladys said community transmission needs to get down to zero in NSW. It seems completely unrealistic to me.

From the Guardian today

[quote Kingstonmumof1]@psychomath I read today that Gladys said community transmission needs to get down to zero in NSW. It seems completely unrealistic to me.[/quote]
Yes, at this point it would surely take many months of harsh restrictions to get back down to no community transmission. It took Victoria nearly four, admittedly from a higher starting point but with a much less infectious variant. It seems quite plausible that NSW might meet the 70% vaccination threshold for lifting restrictions before they get to zero cases, even if they attempt it.

I think they must have had internal advice that outright denying citizens entry was legally problematic as they’re doing every the can to deter entry anyway without doing actually that.

But even though this new policy will definitely make some Australians think twice about returning for a visit, it won’t make the slightly bit of difference in the actual numbers of people coming into Australia.
There are still 36,000 Australians registered as wishing to permanently return to Australia. Making the small number of visitors apply for a permit to leave is really hardly going to make a difference in the whole scheme of things

And truly, can anyone believe the federal government is genuinely concerned about their stranded citizens... the line about trying to help make more places available for them on flights/in quarantine... It’s all gumph made up to appeal to the domestic voter...

Talking to my husband last night and we were saying, we just would like to be told calmly and coherently what the plan is. Is it that the cases have to be zero? Or is it that once vaccination levels are 70% we can have freedoms again, and if so, what freedoms?
If the plan is to get to zero, how long are they prepared to take to get to this point? 6 months? A year? And what happens to vaccinated people during that period? Do we get some “extra” freedoms? Do our children get to go back to school?
If the vaccination target is the KPI (for want of a better word), how do we manage the number of cases that we’ll get with that? How will the other states?
WA have said they are only prepared to have zero cases so if NSW pursues a different strategy, how does WA deal with that? A closed border indefinitely?

These are all the same conversations we had in the uk perhaps 6 months ago. We opened up with, what, 75-80% adults vaccinated?

The difference is, I’m hearing your politicians talk about ‘getting back to zero.’ And I find that astonishing - surely they know it’s not possible?

It’s very hard not knowing what the plan is. Very bleak indeed. It will improve but it’s tough

WA have said they are only prepared to have zero cases

All these politicians talking as if they are the ones controlling the virus...

The only thing politicians can hope to influence is the vaccination rate. And fully vaccinated people do not equal no COVID. It is widely accepted that COVID is here to stay, just like the flu (interestingly the flu virus is even more contagious than the Delta variant of COVID).

@Blackbird2020

I think they must have had internal advice that outright denying citizens entry was legally problematic as they’re doing every the can to deter entry anyway without doing actually that.

But even though this new policy will definitely make some Australians think twice about returning for a visit, it won’t make the slightly bit of difference in the actual numbers of people coming into Australia.
There are still 36,000 Australians registered as wishing to permanently return to Australia. Making the small number of visitors apply for a permit to leave is really hardly going to make a difference in the whole scheme of things

And truly, can anyone believe the federal government is genuinely concerned about their stranded citizens... the line about trying to help make more places available for them on flights/in quarantine... It’s all gumph made up to appeal to the domestic voter...

I totally agree. It’s mostly politics, and it’s horrible. Other countries have managed zero Covid (NZ) or serious suppression (China) without closing their borders to their citizens.

Australian citizenship sure doesn’t feel like it’s worth very much anymore.

@Ozgirl75

Talking to my husband last night and we were saying, we just would like to be told calmly and coherently what the plan is. Is it that the cases have to be zero? Or is it that once vaccination levels are 70% we can have freedoms again, and if so, what freedoms? If the plan is to get to zero, how long are they prepared to take to get to this point? 6 months? A year? And what happens to vaccinated people during that period? Do we get some “extra” freedoms? Do our children get to go back to school? If the vaccination target is the KPI (for want of a better word), how do we manage the number of cases that we’ll get with that? How will the other states? WA have said they are only prepared to have zero cases so if NSW pursues a different strategy, how does WA deal with that? A closed border indefinitely?

Many good questions. The lack of a coherent vision is so frustrating. A proper grown-up conversation needs to be had about whether Australians are willing to accept the thousands of deaths that will occur in the unvaccinated after the vaccination target is met. These vaccines do not stop transmission very well. Singapore and PHE here in the U.K. have both put out papers showing viral load is the same in vaccinated and vaccinated Covid patients for the first 6 days or so.

^ vaccinated and unvaccinated

Well I don’t think it’s so much “willing to accept” but more a case of “this is what we are going to do, and why”
We need to have a more coherent plan. People
I know are already rumbling about sending children back to school whatever is happening in term 4, so it would be good if schools had a plan for a safe and controlled return rather than just having a large number of people saying “not doing this any more” and sending them in.

@Ozgirl75

Well I don’t think it’s so much “willing to accept” but more a case of “this is what we are going to do, and why” We need to have a more coherent plan. People I know are already rumbling about sending children back to school whatever is happening in term 4, so it would be good if schools had a plan for a safe and controlled return rather than just having a large number of people saying “not doing this any more” and sending them in.

So you think it’s a case of needing a leader to step forward and say this is what we’re doing? From the outside it feels like there is a vacuum at the centre and the state leaders are jockeying to set the agenda instead. Which is strange because I was used to fairly strong national leadership. (I moved overseas in 2008).

Yes I do think we need that, but the problem is, the powers to set health rules lie with the state leaders, not the federal government.
What I think a lot of people would like is actually cooperation between the states and a coherent Australian plan, but this is a pipe dream as they’re so far apart on what they’re willing to do/put up with.

There is an utter lack of Federal leadership and this is why each state is taking its own course. Our Prime Minister is as poor as Trump and Johnson. Gladys' determination to run NSW differently from the Labour approach of Victoria has had catastrophic results for the whole country.
Morrison is not capable of leading a national conversation about what our end strategy is.

The Commonwealth government used to be good at usurping power when it wanted to, but yeah I’m aware of the constitutional heads of power (quarantine is at least a commonwealth power, I think?) I feel like previous PMs might have done a better job of uniting the states and coming up with a national plan that is less wishy washy.

29 new cases in Vic today I see, another longer lockdown for them.

I have sympathy for Gladys. She has always been clear that she is trying to balance the needs of the people to live, work etc with the need to stop the virus. NSW is the powerhouse of the country in terms of the economy, and she can’t just shut it down at the slightest thing.
I’m sure in hindsight she wishes she’d shut down earlier but her strategy had worked really well before (the December Northern Beaches outbreak).
It’s so unclear what the correct course of action is, I’m not wholly surprised that the pollies don’t have a coherent plan either.

I’ve got to say, I am tempted to send my kids back to school a couple of days a week. Husband and I are both vaccinated and my oldest child is 10, so not going to get vaccinated any time soon anyway.