Austalian state likely can't contain Delta, will let it rip

[starfro]

www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-07/nsw-delta-variant-may-never-be-controlled/100273956

Be thankful that here most vulnerable people are double jabbed, whereas over there it's far, far fewer.

Delta cannot be contained, it's too transmissible.

@sashagabadon

I also hadn’t realised the extent of animosity and competition between the states in Australia. It seems like open warfare on Australian Twitter atm! The state premiers critiquing each other openly in press conferences and states refusing to “loan” their vaccines to NSW. I can’t imagine Sadiq in London arguing with Andy Burnham in Manchester for example or refusing to help. Or England say refusing to help Wales. I suppose we are a much much smaller land mass and therefore more integrated? It all seems very dysfunctional over there right now, arguments about which state has the harder lockdowns and night curfews and what shops are essential - reminds me of us this time last year! They are discussing lft’s and imo should look at how we manage those here for schools and workplaces and events. Yes they are not perfect but will relieve the testing pressure and people having to queue for hours to take a pcr that’ll probably ultimately be negative anyway for the vast majority. That’ll also help increase the turnaround time for the pcr tests too.

There seems to be a very blame-centric, competitive thing going on between the states. A race to the bottom in terms of who can impose the most punitive lockdown and “win” at Covid.

It’s not just a state v state thing either. I noticed it in winter here, lots of Australians popping up on U.K. sites crowing smugly about how life was normal there and how much better they’d managed Covid. As if Covid is a game, like cricket. As an Australian I was ashamed. At the time we were living through a really tough time here (I live in east Kent, in a pretty deprived town that suffered badly in the winter wave) and it just felt disrespectful and tone deaf. Australians have no clue what it means to truly live through a proper wave of this pandemic. To have Covid, to watch their neighbours succumb, to see the ambulances flying past relentlessly.

But because they don’t understand the reality they’ve somehow managed to turn it into something far worse than it actually is (I would argue).

The animosity between the states is totally new to Covid and really irritating. It obviously goes to the fact that NSW is liberal run and Gladys’ plan was always to have as few restrictions as possible, whilst preventing the spread of the virus. She has always been clear that she would only lockdown as a last resort because ideologically and practically, this made sense. In Sydney, we looked at what Labour in Victoria did with a level of incredulity - Dan Andrew’s brought in rules that were nothing to do with the spread of the virus (curfews etc) and liberals in NSW believed that this was the wrong approach and as light as touch as possible should be the way forward.
This worked pretty well until delta started.
Then lots of people who supported Gladys and her desire to keep the economy functioning and balance measures to prevent the virus with the need to live our lives suddenly decided that maybe they wanted a stronger lockdown after all.
It’s interesting, I’m hearing more of the things we initially heard in the U.K. - the desire for more and stronger rules, “close the playgrounds!” (despite this not being spread outdoors) “masks on at all times” (even though there are no cases spread from people out on a walk) “only let people out for an hour a day” (why?)
It’s a very interesting psychological experiment that people almost want someone to make the decisions for them.
People are saying “oh we should have locked down much harder much earlier” but if we had done that for the 5 or 6 cases we had right at the start, other people would have said “what an over reaction for so few cases”!
It’s a hard job for the pollies, making these decisions.

It definitely goes both ways with the animosity. Work colleagues are across multiple states but we have open discussion and no hard feelings, only support.
However I have one specific friend in Melbourne who has delighted in being passive aggressive about the Sydney situation. I get very frequent messages from her detailing the things is she allowed to do, how much of a fantastic time she was having this time around with their lockdown and her multiple single person bubbles (don't think that's how it is supposed to work) and their house dates. We are also in a group chat with other friends from around the world and their general view of her comments was very much wtf/read the room/tone it down. We all share openly in our group but this was next level. Very out of character.
On a separate note there are some very forward thinking and prepared companies in NZ. They are working towards 80% vaccination rate for staff and then will work as usual with daily rapid testing.

I agree @IndigoC - the crowing from some Australians was really awful and I did think it was very silly given that the pandemic was far from over and there was every chance it would spread here at some point.

Wearing masks whenever outside was what made the difference in Victoria. Gladys appears not to have noticed what Delta was doing in India which is why her response was so woefully inadequate.
If Sydney people want to keep having beach parties, sneaking off to the regions and drifting around IKEA they will be in lockdown for months.

The problem we have over here is that it is spreading in Sydney entirely because some people aren’t following the rules that exist - not because we need more rules.
Eg, we’re not allowed to meet in homes (duh) but one family had a get together for a funeral for 50 family members and 45 of them are now positive. When the daily figures are only 170 and nearly a third are from one selfish family group it’s very annoying.

@spottygymbag

It definitely goes both ways with the animosity. Work colleagues are across multiple states but we have open discussion and no hard feelings, only support. However I have one specific friend in Melbourne who has delighted in being passive aggressive about the Sydney situation. I get very frequent messages from her detailing the things is she allowed to do, how much of a fantastic time she was having this time around with their lockdown and her multiple single person bubbles (don't think that's how it is supposed to work) and their house dates. We are also in a group chat with other friends from around the world and their general view of her comments was very much wtf/read the room/tone it down. We all share openly in our group but this was next level. Very out of character. On a separate note there are some very forward thinking and prepared companies in NZ. They are working towards 80% vaccination rate for staff and then will work as usual with daily rapid testing.

My husband’s family live in Melbourne and they’ve been delighting in Sydney’s failure. It’s awful.

I understand why NSW has had to go pretty harsh in the end but it’s a shame because they were the outlier with a gentler (saner IMO) approach. Delta presents a major problem for any unvaccinated population.

But @StartupRepair we already have rules to prevent that - it’s hardly Gladys’ fault if people don’t follow them. We don’t need more rules, we need people to follow the very straight forward ones that we have.
I noticed this in the U.K., the more rules that came in, people had no idea what they were supposed to do and not do - the whole “bubble” thing where I would see on here people talking about the multiple bubbles they were in etc.
More convoluted rules isn’t the answer, it’s stopping rule breakers doing things like all going round to a family members house. People aren’t catching this going for a walk on the beach.

@Kokeshi123

Tealight, flights to Oz are hard to get and some airlines may halt them altogether. There comes a point when it just become uneconomical to maintain airline routes to a country where very few people are able to use them.

Yes I know but clearly a fair few people are coming in. Else they wouldn't have had any Covid leaks from quarantine. It's international travel that is the reason why NSW and other parts of Australia have had to go into lockdown.

but what's the idea behind not letting people leave to live abroad?

From what I understand it's because some people changed their minds and/or lied. Adding pressure to demand for flights home and quarantine spaces.

@Ozgirl75

I agree *@IndigoC* - the crowing from some Australians was really awful and I did think it was very silly given that the pandemic was far from over and there was every chance it would spread here at some point.

One day a rooster, the next a feather duster, to quote the cheeky opening line to an FT article on Oz’s situation recently. :)

It made me chuckle but I am of course rooting for NSW to get on top of things now. It would be a massive shame to lose control when the population is so close to being vaccinated. After that, though, hard questions lie ahead.

Well I don’t think we’ll be watching the Aussies enviously anymore!
But really Covid is just something all countries need to accept is here to stay and manage as best they can.
I do think a state system makes it all a bit harder though, similar to the US where everyone seems to do their own thing and politics muddies the waters.
Of course here in U.K. we have 4 nations that can roughly do their own thing but we can’t close our borders to each other and as England is so dominant in terms of population size it doesn’t matter much if Wales keeps pubs / clubs closed a bit longer or Scotland has different masks rules. On vaccines we’ve all moved fairly evenly with equal supplies so no need for arguments.

@Tealightsandd

I think NSW’s lockdown was sparked by a limo driver who was (unmasked) ferrying aircrew from a freight plane. It was not a breach of hotel quarantine.

Maybe NSW will have last laugh though with ultimately better vaccination rates and higher immunity levels in a few months time due to greater urgency and will be ultimately back to “normal “ quicker than the other states?
Possible

(Some) Sydney people aren't following rules because Gladys s messaging is so poor. Wringing her hands and saying please is not working. What worked in Victoria was tough, clear, unambiguous communication. That is what is missing.

@sashagabadon well that almost goes without saying - I wouldn’t want to be in WA especially, or even Qld really because their way of dealing with the virus seems to be so restrictive and also both have a mandate for continuing lockdowns as they’ve had their state election.
But for the state of the whole country we need NSW back up and functioning again.

One thing we never really had to face here was one country or region getting the blame for spreading covid to the rest of the UK - there was complaining at points about e.g. people leaving London the day it went to Tier 4, but on the whole it's not like anyone thinks the rest of the country would have been fine if it wasn't for London or anything like

I disagree. The animosity towards Londoners has been a feature in the UK (stoked by governments) for a while even before Covid. And there absolutely was breathtaking hypocrisy re Covid. It was fine for Londoners to be put at risk by people coming from across the UK (and abroad) bringing Covid to London. But the first hint of Covid possibly being spread from London had police roadblocks Keeping Londoners out and people telling visitors to Go Home.

can’t imagine Sadiq in London arguing with Andy Burnham in Manchester for example or refusing to help.

No but it did happen the other way. London, despite being a higher risk as a densely populated urban international travel hub with overcrowded housing and a huge amount of deprivation, got a lower share of vaccines at the start of the UK rollout.

Regional division, whilst unpleasant and regrettable, is definitely not something unique to Australia.

@StartupRepair I’m sorry but I totally disagree with that. The vast majority are following the rules and the ones who aren’t would have broken them whether they were talked to like children or not.

[quote IndigoC]@Tealightsandd

I think NSW’s lockdown was sparked by a limo driver who was (unmasked) ferrying aircrew from a freight plane. It was not a breach of hotel quarantine.[/quote]
Ah ok apologies for my mistake. Still there's obviously a fair few coming through. Quarantine spaces remain full (although I know since the Covid leaks, numbers were going to be cut).

The problem we have is that because the numbers are still comparatively low, you only need 5 or 6 family get together breaking the law and that’s 80 cases in one go!

Agree @Ozgirl75 It's pretty clear about not crossing households etc but still we are getting superspreader events that result in multiple new case across multiple households. Same with people not staying home and waiting for test results. These are basic and addressed daily and yet some people will always choose to ignore or think they can get around it.
In my part of Sydney it is very quiet. There are people out for exercise, groceries, occasional click and collect. But it is very much a tumbleweed situation, even on the main roads.
DC's daycare is down to about 1/3 of usual numbers in both of their rooms thanks to the govt covering the gap fees and enabling parents to retain their places.

I’m a Londoner and completely used to other parts of the country complaining about us. That’s been the case since time immemorial and is really water off a ducks back! I don’t blame people really as we do buy up second homes etc so maybe deserve our reputation. But I am never ever offended as I do think London is the best city in the world

@Ozgirl75 fair enough. Watching from Melbourne my impression is that so many loopholes were left open and the tone was so placatory especially to the Eastern suburbs in the beginning that people did not take it seriously enough.
It is extraordinary how divisive it is.

just find it really wild that so many people on the political left are so keen to keep borders closed as long as possible. "Be careful what you wish for."

Of course there are downsides too, but clearly there are left wing positives re tighter borders. Less competition for jobs and housing = higher wages, better working conditions, and less homelessness/poor housing.

There are many benefits of easy immigration rules and open travel, but it's ridiculous to deny why it might not be so good for the less privileged.

I agree too with simple messaging. We got into a palaver last year with all the silly pointless rules and bubbles and whatnot.
There are things Aus can learn from us, our testing for example with lft’s and pcr’s is excellent now, but yes don’t copy our bubble nonsense. Everyone seemed to be in multiple “bubbles”. I know I was!

Also traditionally the Left was associated with concern for the vulnerable. That means not othering the elderly, disabled, and those with underlying conditions as expendable. In the UK the link between Left and valuing the lives of the vulnerable was broken by Tony Blair. But perhaps in Australia it's still a thing.