Austalian state likely can't contain Delta, will let it rip

[starfro]

www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-07/nsw-delta-variant-may-never-be-controlled/100273956

Be thankful that here most vulnerable people are double jabbed, whereas over there it's far, far fewer.

Delta cannot be contained, it's too transmissible.

@spottygymbag it’s the same here. Very quiet. At our school my son is in year 3. There are about 85 children in his year and 4 are attending (children of hospital workers) and that’s it. The shopping centre is deserted when I go once a week for my food. I called in to do a click and collect jigsaw on Saturday afternoon and saw one person in Westfield - at 1.30’on a Saturday afternoon.
@StartupRepair I can totally understand why you would think that - the media is only showing the parts we’re getting wrong. Also for some reason the people out exercising in Bondi which they are completely allowed to do.

@Tealightsandd The quota being halved to 3000 a week wasn’t based on anything substantive, though. Most of the breaches have been down to operational errors, like Sydney’s. Ironically as most returnees are now vaccinated, positive cases recorded in quarantine had plunged in the weeks before the cut. I could understand the halving if it was based on sound evidence. As I stated yesterday NZ has never imposed a quota and has coped okay because their quarantine is better run (for a long time Australia didn’t even have quarantine staff wearing proper masks!)

3000 a week might sound like a lot but there are 3000 Australians granted exemptions to leave each week, most of whom need to come back. So with a quota that squeezed the 100K or so of us trying to get back (30K of whom are registered on DFAT’s urgent return list) struggle to get a flight. And at the moment if you do it comes at a steep price (Think 20K for a London-Sydney ticket). The repatriation flights are few and far between, prioritised for tier 1 vulnerable assessed individuals, which usually means homeless/destitute/medically unwell.

Ironically as most returnees are now vaccinated

Have the authorities taken into account reports from the CDC in America - that the fully vaccinated are still transmitting Delta?

for a long time Australia didn’t even have quarantine staff wearing proper masks!)

That does sound poorly run. They must've been taking tips from the UK. I'd strongly advise against that. Definitely better to, as you say, look towards New Zealand.

So is it roughly similar to the states in the US where NSW is more republican/ red and “free” and states like Victoria are more Democrat/ blue?
Not as extreme politically as in the US but approximately along those lines?

@IndigoC I have a close friend working at organisational levels for MIQ so has also spent a lot of time on the ground in quite a few of the physical locations. I can say with confidence that NZ's lower levels of breaches is largely down to luck so far. The gaps, loopholes, lack of coordination, lack of solid procedures (in some cases any kind of formal process) is astounding. They may look very together from the outside but inside they are still flying by the seat of their pants.

@sashagabadon it’s more like the U.K. Liberals are conservative and Labour are Labour. It’s not exactly the same but it’s more along those lines. Definitely the idea of the liberals is “light touch” governing, more freedom of individuals and business, market forces etc. Not anywhere near as harsh as the USA though - eg our taxes across the board are higher than the U.K. but in general we have very good public services as a result of that.

@Tealightsandd

Ironically as most returnees are now vaccinated

Have the authorities taken into account reports from the CDC in America - that the fully vaccinated are still transmitting Delta?

for a long time Australia didn’t even have quarantine staff wearing proper masks!)

That does sound poorly run. They must've been taking tips from the UK. I'd strongly advise against that. Definitely better to, as you say, look towards New Zealand.

@Tealightsandd

Yeah, it took them a very long time to acknowledge that this is a properly airborne disease, and to consider N95s. Too much following the U.K.’s bad example there.

I think Oz is pretty aware vaccinated individuals can still transmit, they’ve had some high profile cases in border staff etc. Which is why I’m surprised so much of the narrative there is “get vaccinated so we can reopen.”

[quote spottygymbag]@IndigoC I have a close friend working at organisational levels for MIQ so has also spent a lot of time on the ground in quite a few of the physical locations. I can say with confidence that NZ's lower levels of breaches is largely down to luck so far. The gaps, loopholes, lack of coordination, lack of solid procedures (in some cases any kind of formal process) is astounding. They may look very together from the outside but inside they are still flying by the seat of their pants.

[/quote]
Fair enough. I hope their luck holds.

@sashagabadon

I’m a Londoner and completely used to other parts of the country complaining about us. That’s been the case since time immemorial and is really water off a ducks back! I don’t blame people really as we do buy up second homes etc so maybe deserve our reputation. But I am never ever offended as I do think London is the best city in the world

What a load of crap. Sorry for the brief derail but seriously??

London is one of the worse victims of second homes. And of those people living in London who do buy second homes elsewhere, many (possibly most) are not Londoners but people from elsewhere who came to London and bought up London homes.

I wonder, is this same false narrative happening to people in Sydney? I wouldn't be surprised.

[quote Ozgirl75]@sashagabadon it’s more like the U.K. Liberals are conservative and Labour are Labour. It’s not exactly the same but it’s more along those lines. Definitely the idea of the liberals is “light touch” governing, more freedom of individuals and business, market forces etc. Not anywhere near as harsh as the USA though - eg our taxes across the board are higher than the U.K. but in general we have very good public services as a result of that.[/quote]
Thanks ozgirl. That makes sense to me. I can see why the different states are behaving differently as they are coming at it from different points of view.

Yes. NSW has a Liberal (conservative) government and Victoria has a Labour government. This has played out in NSW prioritising the economy and having a lighter touch and Victoria going hard to save lives. Over the top is a Federal Liberal government which has made many mistakes in the acquisition and distribution of vaccines.

Yes seriously yea slight. I am a Londoner born and bred. Not a second home owner though. I know plenty of people that have sold up in London and bought elsewhere pushing up the price in the places they move too and have a few friends with second homes in Cornwall etc, no doubt hugely annoying the locals in Cornwall who cannot afford to buy. It’s a real thing!
But I don’t want to derail this thread, it’s a whole other subject!

Ahem @StartupRepair it’s not quite as simple as Liberals = economy and Labour = saving lives. The Liberals understand that there is a delicate balance to be found between lockdowns and work The economy is people too - people need to work after all and there aren’t great outcomes to locking down for a long period of time either for the economy or people’s physical and mental health.
The NSW libs have always tried to allow people to do as much as they can whilst staying within the boundaries of what it takes to stop the spread, rather than just arbitrarily making rules that have no basis in medical outcomes.

know plenty of people that have sold up in London and bought elsewhere pushing up the price in the places they move too and have a few friends with second homes in Cornwall etc, no doubt hugely annoying the locals in Cornwall who cannot afford to buy.

And many of those people aren't from London. They're from Cornwall and everywhere in the UK - and came to London pricing out London locals. Then they left London but bought London second home 'boltholes' again pricing out Londoners. It's a major thing. Nowhere in the UK has more of an acute housing crisis than London.

No more derail, sorry. (although I think there's some relevance to Australia as it's happening to people from Sydney too)

The ones I know are Londoners. They’re my school friends and my siblings school friends and relatives / friends / work colleagues of mine. The majority of Londoners are actually born and grow up in London you know. People always assume London is full of non “native” Londoners. There are lots of incomers too of course but it’s a constantly growing city.

The majority of Londoners are actually born and grow up in London you know.

(Official) data says otherwise.

Your personal anecdote isn't representative of the reality. The majority of so called Londoners selling up and moving elsewhere aren't Londoners. They're from elsewhere in the UK, and they came to London and bought up the homes. The Londoners that are leaving are often only doing so because they've been priced out. London incidentally is the UK's capital of homelessness.

I wonder if there's the same double standards over accepting one way traffic only in Australia? Eg people from across Australia can come to Sydney and Melbourne (pricing out locals) but heaven forbid it goes the other way?

@ozgirl75 clearly the balance in NSW is not quite right currently as there is no fall in cases yet an extended lockdown.

Yea I agree @StartupRepair - the problem as I see it is small groups thinking the rules don’t apply to them and ending up in super spreading events. As far as I know the main places to catch the virus are workplaces and family homes, which is why we have huge lists of potential exposure sites like supermarkets but it still hasn’t particularly taken off.
I don’t really see how they can deal with that because there are already rules around that, people just need to follow them. It’s very difficult.

Let's hope the tide turns soon. I have lived in Sydney and love it dearly.

Restrictions on citizens should be a last resort. I still support the decision not to lock down until it became clear that it is necessary. All very well talking about what should have been done with hindsight.

Laws restricting people's freedom should only be what is absolutely necessary, and there may come a point where the price of "safety" is too high. There are plenty of people who think this way, we just aren't shouting and carrying on on social media.

I am in Sydney. Just back from getting second vaccine. My area is also extremely quiet. There is a most excellent 'vibe' at the Olympic Park mass vaccination centre, the logistics are being handled beautifully, the staff are friendly and helpful and everyone I encountered was very much of the 'lets get this done and get back to it'. The weather probably helps.

We will be OK. I am more concerned about the way the faultlines between States are being reinforced than anything. I supported closed internal borders initially, but I think we all need to get together and come up with an Australian plan, rather than a State one. The Commonwealth is not unbreakable.

I didn't crow when it was Melbourne, I worried about them. I don't appreciate the attitude now.

Sydney/NSW will be OK, won't be long before we are back vertically drinking in the Opera Bar.

theconversation.com/zero-covid-is-no-longer-an-effective-strategy-we-need-to-learn-from-other-countries-how-to-adapt-165241

Interesting article here. Arguing to look to the U.K. (and France) to see what we are doing. Still contains a bit of a dig at the U.K. but I guess it’s hard to pivot 180 from “the U.K. is a shit show, we are great “ to “whoops, actually maybe they are not a shit show, could they are right? “

Good article actually, very sensible.

They are now bringing the military in to police lockdown in Sydney - www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jul/29/nsw-covid-update-rules-tightened-in-western-sydney-as-state-reaches-record-high-of-239-daily-cases

This is the reality of the ZeroCovid approach - it works until it doesn't.

They really do need to enforce the rules properly. These people in the west and south west having massive family gatherings are keeping the numbers high for everyone else.
I know delta is more contagious but there don’t seem to be many cases of people catching it in the shops or past casual contacts, it’s family gatherings, work and people getting sick and waiting a week before getting tested that seem to be the main problem in keeping the cases high.

I don't necessarily agree we can have an Australian plan as such, I'm in WA and our economic priorities / geography mean our strict and early lockdowns really do make sense, as much as there has been quite a bit of finger pointing at Mark McGowan for overreacting. WA is 12 times bigger than the UK, but population is only about 3 million, so we have geography on our side in terms of being able to prevent spread, but would make any outbreaks in rural / indigenous communities extremely difficult to treat.

We're also dependent economically on oil and gas and mining more than other states, if we have to slow output / shutdown any sites due to outbreaks that would have far more of an impact than any others (particularly iron ore). This also increases the risk of the virus getting into the more isolated communities, as the same towns that service them, also tend to be hubs for many of the FIFO, places like Port Headland, Karratha, Broome etc. There are places that can be closed off for weeks on end depending what's happening with the rivers, it could really be devastating if it was passed on at the wrong time. A friend of mine is senior in department of Communities, and was heavily involved in discussions and planning in Jan / Feb 2020 and these considerations played heavily in decision making on how to handle the virus.

I'd also say our hospitals are stretched as is, ambulances are already ramping at record levels, and there's really no other option than Perth for ICU for the whole state, what would we do if that gets over run? Again, where our isolation helps keep it out, it would be a huge negative if it did take hold.