Austalian state likely can't contain Delta, will let it rip

[starfro]

www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-07/nsw-delta-variant-may-never-be-controlled/100273956

Be thankful that here most vulnerable people are double jabbed, whereas over there it's far, far fewer.

Delta cannot be contained, it's too transmissible.

I think the most interesting thing will be the impact, long term, on immigration policy. Oz and NZ may decide that they are able to manage with far less immigration than they have previously experienced, and may rejig their societies permanently to be less immigrant-dependent. JA has already suggested this, I believe. I'm not reflexibly pro or anti immigration, so I am neither praising not condemning this---I just find the change in political alignments super interesting to watch.

Tealight, flights to Oz are hard to get and some airlines may halt them altogether. There comes a point when it just become uneconomical to maintain airline routes to a country where very few people are able to use them.

I have 1 freind in Sydney emigrated there she seems cheesed off at current state of play. I get anti lockdown vibes from her.

Watched few Australian you tubers 1 lives i Victoria they seem terrified of the virus and reminds me of how purple felt in her UK in March 2020 about the virus.
Remember when it was too risky even sit on a bench

I think their overall population supportive lockdowns however noticed a lot bad feeling towards Sydney and new South wales almost rest if Australia blaming them so maybe its not as harmonious and united on covid as we think.

The thing I find most odd is all this fleeting contact tracing.
That its possible pass someone in shop, shopping centre or even outdoors for 1 minutes and get covid seems so extreme.

Also quite few cases if covid evading the 14 day quarantine period that we have reduced to 10.

@Kokeshi123

I think the most interesting thing will be the impact, long term, on immigration policy. Oz and NZ may decide that they are able to manage with far less immigration than they have previously experienced, and may rejig their societies permanently to be less immigrant-dependent. JA has already suggested this, I believe. I'm not reflexibly pro or anti immigration, so I am neither praising not condemning this---I just find the change in political alignments super interesting to watch.

I’m definitely picking up a similar vibe (I’m in NZ). Currently working in quite a left leaning organisations where most people would automatically support immigration (more from a humanitarian perspective). Have heard a few people discussing it at lunch and definitely a change of tone towards lifting standards of living at home before opening up etc

Was on contract at a very conservative financial services type organisation before that and strangely the same thing. Some quite openly stating they want it dialled right back, from people who would have previously been supportive of open immigration (from an economic perspective). MD said to me he thought it was a Ponzi scheme- I don’t think he’d have openly said that two years ago. Obviously all just anecdotal

I feel a bit ambivalent about it (I’d like us to make some headway with our ancient infrastructure first though!). Will be interesting how it all unfolds

Speaking to mates in Australia throughout the pandemic and the views are definitely shifting.
Huge concerns about not being able to see family abroad for years and also concerns over the lurch to anti-immigration policies that are now openly discussed as acceptable due to Covid, especially in terms of asylum seekers.

So three weeks on from the start of this thread and cases continue to rise in NSW, albeit slowly. Rules appear to have tightened, but it looks like it will take months of lockdown to even have a chance of reducing cases to zero.

Victoria, just emerging from lockdown, has been rocked as they've discovered an unlinked case. Back to lockdown again?

It's unsustainable long term.

@starfro is this the case detected in a worker at the testing facility?

I'm curious what the other states will do if we can't get the numbers down in NSW. I'm well outside of the hotspot suburbs but you can already see it spreading and wonder if it will just simmer away here. But how is that going to work for Vic and Qld in the mid term? Qld has had 13 incursions since this one began. Vic is clearly not quite out of the woods either.
They are now going to vaccinate year 12's in the hotspots with Pfizer to get them back in the classroom for HSC and they have limited shopping to within 10km of your home.
I wonder how much effect this will have though because those who want to break the rules will break them anyway or find excuses why they don't apply to them, and those who are abiding by them are already doing their but with limiting movements.
I guess every little bit helps.

On the upside, we are now vaccinating 1m a week. So 32% are 1 dose and 14% 2 doses.

They anticipate all eligible will have 1st dose by end of august? According to Scott

@beingsunny is that by using AZ for anyone 18+ that wants it?

I think it's been a combination, the risk of the vaccine has now swayed towards a risk from Covid for the first time really in over a year.

They have pushed it out to GPS and now pharmacies, Scott said we had vaxxed 1m people today in his presser.

Kerry keeps talking about a large proportion of elderly still waiting for Pfizer, however pointed out they would be last behind kids and they need to go ahead with the AZ vaccine and not hedge their bets and wait.

Ok good to know. I've been trying to keep up with it all but there have been so many announcements lately!

While it’s great that SA has beaten Delta (for now) the government now seems to have developed a bit of a mask fetish. We’ve been told they are here to stay now- maybe even once everyone has had the opportunity to be vaccinated.

I can handle wearing them for my commute and in the supermarket but they are being encouraged in our office (not public facing) and I’m concerned someone is going to decide to make them compulsory. Anything to keep us safe, hey.

Masks have their place and if I was in Sydney I’d be wearing them everywhere. I don’t think masks on a state with no know cases is proportionate. I also don’t agree that are a no cost measure with no issues with their use.

I have a long term anxiety condition and was nearly in tears last night at the thought of being made to wear them in the office. If they are brought in I’ll be getting an exemption from my GP.

Oh I know, I have a strong vested interest here, single parent, homeschooling, all family in the UK and starting new job on Wednesday.

Having a large wine right now, and a quiet half hour without lovely son talking at me at a million miles an hour

I can’t imagine many people travel more than 10k to do their shopping. I’m in one of the outer Sydney suburbs and live on the bush and even I only have to travel about 7k to Coles and that includes the really long road that I live down. Guess they are though as otherwise why would they need to crack down?
Vaccines have definitely ramped up. Even in my friends group alone I know about 10 people who had their second this week, and I’m due my second on Monday. Being able to get vaccinated in pharmacies etc will really help too.
Plus once it’s freely available to everyone, if you choose not to have it, tough luck if you get sick really.

@Ozgirl75

I can’t imagine many people travel more than 10k to do their shopping. I’m in one of the outer Sydney suburbs and live on the bush and even I only have to travel about 7k to Coles and that includes the really long road that I live down. Guess they are though as otherwise why would they need to crack down? Vaccines have definitely ramped up. Even in my friends group alone I know about 10 people who had their second this week, and I’m due my second on Monday. Being able to get vaccinated in pharmacies etc will really help too. Plus once it’s freely available to everyone, if you choose not to have it, tough luck if you get sick really.

Good to hear about the vaccinations. As much as I hate wearing a mask and overkill on restrictions I’m hugely pro vaccine. I even got in trouble in the Covid AD thread in chat over my pro vaccine views

It’s also GREAT news to see that they’re starting to look at the rapid flow tests for year 12. I truly hope that some of the things the U.K. did like year bubbles, rapid tests etc can be rolled out to get kids back to school ASAP. As we have so few cases it would be a really safe way to get children back into the class. If the U.K. managed it with 30,000 cases in the population I’m sure we can do it with the few we have.

Would really hope they prioritise vaccinating teachers as well as year 12s in Sydney.

Glad to say we are fully vaccinated household. My youngest who has an immunocompromised chronic health issue received his second Pzifer shot yesterday.

The real issue with vaccines in Australia is that nobody wants the AZ vaccine, the only one available to the over 60s, because our federal government has fucked up big time the vaccination program. Instead of getting contracts with 5 o 6 different companies, Mr Morrison and his cohorts put the money first on an Australian vaccine that was a dud, and then an AZ vaccine no one wants without to approaching more companies or using his influence to speed up the contract with Pzifer. He is a lazy, incompetent asshole.

I predict going to be in lockdown in Sydney until Christmas.

Even if there are no actual changes in policy, closed borders for several years will probably cause levels of immigration to be permanently lower going forward, because a) immigrants (at least those who are not refugees/truly desperate) will be wary of moving to a country which has established form for slamming the borders shut and may well do so again; b) because the economy will retool itself to manage with fewer immigrants. Example: the agricultural sector will invest more in labor saving capital, such as automated machinery, to get round shortages of laborers; once they've invested in that equipment, of course they will continue using it going forward. You can make arguments for and against this, like I say--I just find it really wild that so many people on the political left are so keen to keep borders closed as long as possible. "Be careful what you wish for."

It’ll just be a drip drip effect of Australia falling off the international scene. England cricketers are already making noises that they do not want to go to Australia for the ashes as they a. Can’t bring their families b. Don’t want to have to deal with all the state border closures c. Don’t want to quarantine. Yes it’s only cricket but the same thoughts will go through every other sector / sport/ entertainment etc when contemplating Australia. Cultural things like musicians, film production, conferences etc.
Why put up with the zero Covid nonsense when you can tour/ perform/ visit somewhere else in the world. That’s a big potential danger going into 2022 and beyond.
New Zealand faces this too.

sash true about film and TV.
I own a prod co and we’ve been hoping to film something in Australia for some time now.
But I suspect it’s going to have to go elsewhere now or may get canned.
Heartbreaking for those people who have worked for years to get this project off the ground.

I read recently that people aren't being allowed out of the country even if they don't intend to come back for a long time, including dual citizens - can someone who's there confirm whether that's the case? If so I don't understand the thinking behind that rule - I can see why you wouldn't want people going on holiday and potentially bringing back covid or taking hotel quarantine spots from people who've been waiting longer, but what's the idea behind not letting people leave to live abroad?

I think their overall population supportive lockdowns however noticed a lot bad feeling towards Sydney and new South wales almost rest if Australia blaming them so maybe its not as harmonious and united on covid as we think.

Yes I noticed this too. One thing we never really had to face here was one country or region getting the blame for spreading covid to the rest of the UK - there was complaining at points about e.g. people leaving London the day it went to Tier 4, but on the whole it's not like anyone thinks the rest of the country would have been fine if it wasn't for London or anything like that. I think no matter whether NSW gets this current outbreak back to zero or not, the repercussions of the state vs state infighting are going to last a while.

I also hadn’t realised the extent of animosity and competition between the states in Australia. It seems like open warfare on Australian Twitter atm! The state premiers critiquing each other openly in press conferences and states refusing to “loan” their vaccines to NSW. I can’t imagine Sadiq in London arguing with Andy Burnham in Manchester for example or refusing to help. Or England say refusing to help Wales.
I suppose we are a much much smaller land mass and therefore more integrated?
It all seems very dysfunctional over there right now, arguments about which state has the harder lockdowns and night curfews and what shops are essential - reminds me of us this time last year!
They are discussing lft’s and imo should look at how we manage those here for schools and workplaces and events. Yes they are not perfect but will relieve the testing pressure and people having to queue for hours to take a pcr that’ll probably ultimately be negative anyway for the vast majority.
That’ll also help increase the turnaround time for the pcr tests too.

Fore the animosity started last year when we had a long harsh lockdown in Victoria and felt completely vilified and abandoned by the rest of the country.stoked by the Murdoch press. Our PM even referred to it as the Victorian virus. I had a Sydney based colleague day to me 'i don't know why you are locked down...we just seem to manage it better here in Sydney'. This all made a hard situation harder. Now Sydney is risking the whole country with a half hearted lockdown.