Austalian state likely can't contain Delta, will let it rip

[starfro]

www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-07/nsw-delta-variant-may-never-be-controlled/100273956

Be thankful that here most vulnerable people are double jabbed, whereas over there it's far, far fewer.

Delta cannot be contained, it's too transmissible.

I do worry Oz and NZ have painted themselves into a corner. If 20% of the population don’t get the vaccine that’s 5 million potential cases in Australia, and 50,000 potential deaths. Add to that another 2 million — the 10% in which the vaccines fail to prevent severe illness and you get another 20,000 potential deaths (a likely underestimate given those that are most vulnerable to C19 are also the most likely to suffer vaccine breakthrough due to immune deficiency).

So inevitably Australia faces 70,000 or so deaths over time if it attempts to live with the virus. Given the level of acrimony NSW is currently facing over a handful of cases/deaths I think it far more likely Oz chooses to remain cut off from the world for the indefinite future. They need better vaccines.

@TheYearOfSmallThings

Glad I live in South Australia

Surely once it has spread through any part of Australia, it will spread to all areas?

Australia is a huge place with miles and miles (and miles) between inhabited areas.

@IndigoC

I do worry Oz and NZ have painted themselves into a corner. If 20% of the population don’t get the vaccine that’s 5 million potential cases in Australia, and 50,000 potential deaths. Add to that another 2 million — the 10% in which the vaccines fail to prevent severe illness and you get another 20,000 potential deaths (a likely underestimate given those that are most vulnerable to C19 are also the most likely to suffer vaccine breakthrough due to immune deficiency).

So inevitably Australia faces 70,000 or so deaths over time if it attempts to live with the virus. Given the level of acrimony NSW is currently facing over a handful of cases/deaths I think it far more likely Oz chooses to remain cut off from the world for the indefinite future. They need better vaccines.

The acrimony NSW faces is base the numbers got out of hand because of the wishy -washy lockdown by Gladys. And now they're facing four more weeks.

It is not a handful of cases, by the way.

because

@echt

I’m afraid a 150 cases is a handful in U.K. terms.

I’m not sure those figures are right @IndigoC. the death rate per million in the U.K. is around 2000 per million, not 10,000, and that presumably is worse than Aus and NZ would be because so many of those were Pre vaccine.
So taking those figures, of 7 million cases, that would be around 14,000 deaths, and probably fewer as our vaccine rollout is now increasing and we also have better treatments for Covid from the early days.
Obviously not great still, but a lot less than 70,000.
If I’ve misunderstood the figures I’m happy to be corrected though.

@Ozgirl75

I’m not sure those figures are right *@IndigoC*. the death rate per million in the U.K. is around 2000 per million, not 10,000, and that presumably is worse than Aus and NZ would be because so many of those were Pre vaccine. So taking those figures, of 7 million cases, that would be around 14,000 deaths, and probably fewer as our vaccine rollout is now increasing and we also have better treatments for Covid from the early days. Obviously not great still, but a lot less than 70,000. If I’ve misunderstood the figures I’m happy to be corrected though.

The IFR for Covid is considered to be roughly 1% according to Imperial, which is what I was using. It was rough maths, that didn’t factor in things like what percentage of the population are children.

As for the U.K. figures, not everybody in the U.K. has had the virus yet, contrary to popular belief the pandemic is not over. We have perhaps finished the acute phase.

I see - yes I was looking at the deaths per million rate. Well, we will see as time goes on I suppose. I think the figures are probably too high as I imagine that 20% not getting the vaccine is mainly younger people who are less likely to die.

people seem utterly utterly terrified

Well that's entirely rational of those people. It would be extremely odd not to fear a highly contagious disease that has killed and disabled millions worldwide. Even if they are Other People.

So it's thought 20% of Australians are vaccine hesitant? That's lower than the UK. Australia has every opportunity to avoid following the UK in killing and disabling many tens of thousands of it's own people.
All that needs to happen is borders stay shut until vaccination rollout has progressed further (with tightening up on quarantine - including keeping numbers low enough to prevent leaks).

Big business doesn't like it so I assume the 'changing narrative' will continue to be pushed. But, there is the fact of an election not too far off...and with majority (70-80%) support for closed borders, let's see.

@Ozgirl75

I see - yes I was looking at the deaths per million rate. Well, we will see as time goes on I suppose. I think the figures are probably too high as I imagine that 20% not getting the vaccine is mainly younger people who are less likely to die.

Yes, that’s a good point and I hope so. Even in the US I think over 85% of over 65s have chosen to get vaccinated.

Also having experienced both healthcare systems I think Australia will fare better. Also the above scenario likely avoids Oz hospitals being overwhelmed which helps keep the IFR lower. It’s still a lot of loss, though, and even if it was carefully distributed over a long period it represents a major shift in thinking there.

Let's not forget a significant number of Australians wanted tighter borders even before Covid. Why would they accept the risks of a disease that has killed and disabled millions around the world, that is a risk to themselves or their loved ones. Why would they accept being told that risk is better than staying shut...when they actually want to stay shut. Forcing Covid risk on them is hardly going to persuade them of the benefits of open borders...

Definitely agree with you on the shift in thinking. I can’t quite decide whether it’s a good thing or not! We do need to accept cases and deaths but I have bought into the “death is a tragedy” idea, and it’s quite hard to turn that to the “your oldies will die (and some non oldies too) and that’s just the price you pay for freedom”.
I’m well aware of the competing issues as well; deaths caused by poverty caused by lockdown but I can see how it will be hard to change the narrative. It’s a tricky one - in this age we are unused to pandemics of this size, death on this scale.

@Ozgirl75

Definitely agree with you on the shift in thinking. I can’t quite decide whether it’s a good thing or not! We do need to accept cases and deaths but I have bought into the “death is a tragedy” idea, and it’s quite hard to turn that to the “your oldies will die (and some non oldies too) and that’s just the price you pay for freedom”. I’m well aware of the competing issues as well; deaths caused by poverty caused by lockdown but I can see how it will be hard to change the narrative. It’s a tricky one - in this age we are unused to pandemics of this size, death on this scale.

It is incredibly tricky. I wrestle with it daily too. I don’t think the U.K. has handled the pandemic well at all, it’s at one extreme (prioritisation of freedom and individual liberty, mostly open borders) and Australia is at the other. The U.K. has treated its elderly as if they are expendable but Australia risks robbing its youth of so much if it remains closed off indefinitely. Not to mention the families kept apart by closed borders, including my own.

I tend to think New Zealand is doing better with its more humane border policy. But it’s economy is hurting and one day it’s young people will have to pay that debt.

We do need to accept cases and deaths

Why?

that’s just the price you pay for freedom”.

Other People die for the freedom of a minority to travel internationally?

Why would people accept the risk of themselves or their loved ones dying or 'living with' Long Covid disability, just so a minority (and it is a minority in Australia) can travel internationally with no restrictions - instead of keeping shut borders for just another year or so?

Australia isn't big on freedom when it comes to death and disability. Certainly not when it comes to freedom to smoke. Why would it be any different with Covid?

but Australia risks robbing its youth of so much if it remains closed off indefinitely.

Australia has plenty of clinically vulnerable younger people. Or don't they count, as they are Other People?

Support for closed borders in Australia is between 70-80%. The vast majority - including the young - are happy to keep them shut for longer, rather than risk unnecessary death and disability.

@Tealightsandd

We do need to accept cases and deaths

Why?

that’s just the price you pay for freedom”.

Other People die for the freedom of a minority to travel internationally?

Why would people accept the risk of themselves or their loved ones dying or 'living with' Long Covid disability, just so a minority (and it is a minority in Australia) can travel internationally with no restrictions - instead of keeping shut borders for just another year or so?

Australia isn't big on freedom when it comes to death and disability. Certainly not when it comes to freedom to smoke. Why would it be any different with Covid?

It’s more complicated than that, though. It’s not just about the ability to swan around the world. The international student sector is a big chunk of GDP, as is international tourism. The economy is also dependent on skilled immigrant labour. And 30% of Australians were born overseas, and have family residing outside Oz.

Keeping borders shut for another year or so just be feasible but won’t it need to be much longer than that? Covid isn’t going anywhere, it’s going to become endemic globally and the current vaccines do not create sterilising immunity.

*might not just

And 30% of Australians were born overseas, and have family residing outside Oz.

And 40% of Australians don't have a passport

That 30% born abroad figure includes the elderly (The Covid Expendables) who often either no longer have close family abroad (all dead) or who aren't well enough to travel. It also includes people who can't afford to travel internationally.

Obviously it's not ideal, shut borders. It would be good to get the international student sector back up and running, yes, and other issues. But in the end an extra year or two shut borders is short-term. Death - and Long Covid disability - is permanent.

@Tealightsandd

And 30% of Australians were born overseas, and have family residing outside Oz.

And 40% of Australians don't have a passport

That 30% born abroad figure includes the elderly (The Covid Expendables) who often either no longer have close family abroad (all dead) or who aren't well enough to travel. It also includes people who can't afford to travel internationally.

Obviously it's not ideal, shut borders. It would be good to get the international student sector back up and running, yes, and other issues. But in the end an extra year or two shut borders is short-term. Death - and Long Covid disability - is permanent.

But what will be different in a year’s time? Covid will still be here, quite likely in a more virulent, vaccine resistant form. Perhaps the next generation of vaccines will be a magic bullet, but I doubt that as coronaviruses, like flu, are pretty spectacular at evading immunity.

So Australia may well have to remain closed for many years with a rolling series of lockdowns unless it completely cuts off any international arrivals.

Given 88 percent more of uk adults have already had one vaccine claiming the uk has over 20 percent vaccine hesitancy is odd! Even for a women who mainly wants to use covid to promote smoking😂!

No Australia does have a problem if even Gibraltar with over 100 percent vaccination has changed covid cases then vaccines are not a route to zero cause vis bit less covid works where it is endemic but no not where it doesn’t ex’s it’s. I have no carers re what either Australia or nz does but vaccination with the current regime will not allow them to open boarders I think quarantine is set to remain for a very long time for those countries that have achieved no covid it’s a trade off ultimately!

@Tealightsandd

And 30% of Australians were born overseas, and have family residing outside Oz.

And 40% of Australians don't have a passport

That 30% born abroad figure includes the elderly (The Covid Expendables) who often either no longer have close family abroad (all dead) or who aren't well enough to travel. It also includes people who can't afford to travel internationally.

Obviously it's not ideal, shut borders. It would be good to get the international student sector back up and running, yes, and other issues. But in the end an extra year or two shut borders is short-term. Death - and Long Covid disability - is permanent.

The 40% don’t have a passport is a false equivalence btw. Not caring enough about travel to bother getting a passport hardly counterbalances 30% of the population being cut off indefinitely from their families overseas.

It’s easy to talk about these things in the abstract, but I can tell you, as someone with a mother dying in Australia right now, who cannot get to her, this is significant trauma. It might not be as neatly quantifiable as case numbers but there are many people in this boat and as time ticks on there will be many, many more. More weddings missed, more births, more funerals, more last goodbyes.

I'm so sorry about your mother. Can you go through quarantine? It's wrong if celebs/well-known faces like Katie Hopkins and Rita Orla are being prioritised for entry over compassionate travel.

A pandemic is an awful situation with many hard decisions. But the rights of the majority is the only ethical and moral option. It is a minority who want or need to travel. Should tens or hundreds of thousands of people die for that minority? Potentially millions more left disabled?

Not caring enough about travel to bother getting a passport

Many people (not just Australia) simply can't afford it. And also there's plenty of interstate domestic travel opportunities.

More weddings missed, more births, more funerals, more last goodbyes

And that is the fate of the loved ones of the millions worldwide who have died from Covid.

I am sorry about your mother and do wish there was an easier way for people in your position.

Even for a women who mainly wants to use covid to promote smoking😂!

I'm not promoting (or condemning) smoking. I refer to it because of the immense hypocrisy and confused messaging. People are told to 'live with' Covid - a disease that kills and disables many. Because - personal responsibility and freedom. Oh, and the economy. Why then, no personal responsibility and freedom (and boost to the economy) for smoking?

Also attitudes towards the elderly. The suggestion that it's 'ok' if they die a potentially unpleasant Covid death. Again the mixed messaging and hypocrisy. Why tell someone to give up smoking because it might shorten their life...then if they do give up and live longer, tell them it's past their time to live - that they're expendable? (And yes smoking can cause disabling illness. But so can Covid).

Finally, as if governments give a shit about public health. Why so worried about people choosing to smoke (exercising their freedom) yet nothing is done about increasing homelessness. Lack of one of life's most basic essentials - homelessness and insecure housing - is a much greater public health crisis than smoking. How to take anti smoking messages seriously when people are left without a home?

In short, there's very mixed and hypocritical messaging when it comes to public health.

Either it's ok to have personal responsibility and freedom when it comes to risk of illness and death. Or it isn't.

@Tealightsandd

I'm so sorry about your mother. Can you go through quarantine? It's wrong if celebs/well-known faces like Katie Hopkins and Rita Orla are being prioritised for entry over compassionate travel.

A pandemic is an awful situation with many hard decisions. But the rights of the majority is the only ethical and moral option. It is a minority who want or need to travel. Should tens or hundreds of thousands of people die for that minority? Potentially millions more left disabled?

Not caring enough about travel to bother getting a passport

Many people (not just Australia) simply can't afford it. And also there's plenty of interstate domestic travel opportunities.

More weddings missed, more births, more funerals, more last goodbyes

And that is the fate of the loved ones of the millions worldwide who have died from Covid.

I am sorry about your mother and do wish there was an easier way for people in your position.

I have no problem going through quarantine. I simply cannot get a flight. They were incredibly expensive and unpredictable before the quota was halved, it is now virtually impossible given thousands ahead of me in the queue were dumped off their flights. But I’m trying. Things are far less well organised than you might imagine.

As for the majority, well if the will of the majority is the be all and end all then Australia is f**ked, given the population’s backwards attitudes to say the rights of so-called boat people. New Zealand has shown it is possible to allow its citizens to return freely whilst keeping its people safe. Almost all of Australia’s quarantine failures have been operational as Peter Dutton (of all people!) pointed out yesterday. The average Australian, however, terrorised by accounts of Covid that make it sound like the bubonic plague, is positively clamouring to slam the door and keep it firmly shut for god knows how long. The only nation in the world to lock its citizens out. That’s not something to be proud of or defend, IMO. Not with bogus claims that people will inevitably die. If NZ can manage it why can’t Australia?

Well that's entirely rational of those people. It would be extremely odd not to fear a highly contagious disease that has killed and disabled millions worldwide. Even if they are Other People.

No, I don't mean finding COVID terrifying at the macro/societal level (I do as well, as it happens). I mean, they find COVID terrifying in the sense that they seem to be believe that the average person has an incredibly high risk of death or disability if they catch it. I'm talking about people who describe COVID in the kind of terms I'd use for smallpox.