100,000 cases a day by August....bloody hell

[ssd]

We're all going to get it eventually it seems

*A significant group of people in the UK who are unvaccinated is pregnant women.

They have been somewhat protected so far but I’m really concerned that in the coming weeks we will see more infections in this group*

Why would pregnant women be unvaccinated ? Vaccine has been availible to all adults for 2 weeks, most pregnant women are 25-40 so should have had at least one dose. Aren't they also a priority group ?

0-2 covid cases in my area in the last week.

People need to stop looking at scaremongering headlines and look at the actual cases in their local area. Once armed with the data you can decide on how you live your life we don’t need the government telling us what to do anymore.

How long do people want mitigation’s continuing for when there are virtually NO CASES!!!

@traumatisednoodle

*A significant group of people in the UK who are unvaccinated is pregnant women.

They have been somewhat protected so far but I’m really concerned that in the coming weeks we will see more infections in this group*

Why would pregnant women be unvaccinated ? Vaccine has been availible to all adults for 2 weeks, most pregnant women are 25-40 so should have had at least one dose. Aren't they also a priority group ?

You must realise that a lot of pregnant women won't want to take the risk of vaccination while pregnant? I didn't realise until I had mine, but many women don't even get the flu jab because of concerns for their baby.

My friend is pregnant now, third trimester, and was advised by her midwife not to get the vaccine.

Something just occurred to me reading this thread. They’ve ordered boosters for the vulnerable this winter. We don’t know how long the vaccine works for (ie immunity may be short lived ). Are they being clever in thinking over winter vaccine immunity could be reducing and so best get as many people have it whikst vaccine level is good and it’s summer to get more antibodies and make it easier in turn during the long hard winter? Disclaimer, this science may be totally off, it’s more of a self musing

What's the alternative though? You can't lock down society forever

We could have ensured CEV and CV children were vaccinated? We could retain social distancing and masks?

@walkoflifewoohoo

"I have a maths degree, I think I know the concepts behind exponential growth.

And we are an island nation, just like New Zealand."

Use your maths degree to calculate how many people per square foot the uk has versus New Zealand.

Not to mention that the only similarity is that they're an island. How that island runs is completely different but you ignore that.

I mean one of them is a major world transport hub and the other is stuck out in the middle of fucking nowhere. You stick that in the box labelled IGNORE like you have vaccines.

Maths degree 🤣

The same bullshit argument every time. More people died than should have done- that's the government's fault. But people seem to think we can avoid any hospital visits or deaths or long term illness- we can't. We have to accept people will die and get ill and move on. The whole of society can't go on like this indefinitely; there will always be a reason to stay restricted for some people on here, they probably still wash their shopping. The one concession I have is that CEV children should have got the jab much earlier.

It’s a trade off

Keep people safe but the economy will tank as CV19 is having an impact.

Then listen to the complaints

We will have to learn to live with Covid, like we do with Winter Flu and how many die each year due to that?

It’s a numbers game and the vaccine breaks the link

We will be picking up the fallout from CV19 for a few more years to come

Reporting numbers is not scaremongering. It's factual. It's literally the reality of what's happened on a particular day

It's no more scaremongering than the days weather or how many births there were.

Reporting just the number of cases alone doesn’t give a true picture, they should be reporting the number of hospitalisations which gives a more useful idea of how many people are actually very ill.

Cases are rising but hospitalisations are dropping because of the vaccine, so the number of cases alone isn’t a useful piece of information unless it’s in context.

Useful info here,

Fewer than one in 1,000 infections is now leading to a death - compared with one in 60 last winter.
www.bbc.com/news/health-57694918

If that many cases happen the NHS will never catch up on its backlog.

I think it's scaremongering. And even if there are loads of cases, so what. Most are barely ill from it.

If we have 100,000 new cases a day... Surely pretty soon everyone will have had it?
Especially given the majority of doubke vaccinated don't get it, or are asymptomatic when they do.
I literally struggle to understand were the figures come from.
Rarely do people have it twice.
Most people vaccinated
Thousands already had it.
So really... 100,000 a day... In ten days that's a million cases...
I don't believe it will happen, and as infections have not led to huge rises in deaths, I cannot get worried about it

Masks would help if they were properly used and worn and FFP2 or higher standard.

More importantly, hospitals should be upgrading their PPE so that people stop catching it in bloody hospital when they are in for something entirely different!!! Can't believe the mess we are in with that. 18 months in and they've only just twigged?

www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/upgrading-ppe-for-staff-working-on-covid-19-wards-cut-hospital-acquired-infections-dramatically

@megletthesecond

If that many cases happen the NHS will never catch up on its backlog.

Cases don’t equal hospitalisations, most of those cases will have no impact on the NHS whatsoever.

@Tealightsandd

What about people who have had reduced or no earnings for the last 15 months. It IS lockdown for them.

Yes. We definitely need to improve support for Long Covid sufferers. And in fact for all people who are unable to work or can only manage part-time, due to disability and illness.

Obviously we also need to reduce the risks, try to limit the number of new Long Covid disabilities. Simple and easy mitigation measures for opening up are needed. Like masks.

I'm pretty sure "What about people who have had reduced or no earnings for the last 15 months. It IS lockdown for them"

Is about businesses that have had to remain shut or have been able to open but at reduced capacity running in a way thats not profitable. Why immediately go to "long covid"?

0-2 covid cases in my area in the last week.People need to stop looking at scaremongering headlines and look at the actual cases in their local area. Once armed with the data you can decide on how you live your life we don’t need the government telling us what to do anymore.How long do people want mitigation’s continuing for when there are virtually NO CASES!!!

I'm all right Jack - springs to mind.

My local hospital has 60 cases of covid and 15 of them are in ICU. Even though the vaccine is 90% effective, that still leaves 10% where it is not effective. Plus the stupid idiots who refuse the vaccine for no medical reason. That makes a lot of people out of 68 million.

It isn't scaremongering, it is basic facts. Oh yeah - Boris is fucking things up - again.

And saying we can just get back to normal by wearing masks is unrealistic. It changes a lot of people’s behaviour - I, like many, tend to avoid indoor activities where masks are required. Also given anyone can print a paper mask exemption off the internet I think personal choice is here already if it doesn’t go. There certainly seems to be a lot more people with badges exempt from wearing masks than a few months ago.

The absolute key is 100,000 cases of an illness that will only mildly affect the majority of that 100,000

Isn't it about time people took there own personal responsibility . I will wear a mask on public transport, I won't go the clubs or concerts, I won't go to mass gathering and I will social distance when out . Are people really that thick they can't work out whats more of a risky and behave accordingly .

I haven't read the full thread.

India's cases topped out at 400,000 per day.

With a population of 1.3 billion, that's an average of 1 case for every 3,250 people. Obviously this is an under calculation as India's population is widely spread over a large area and there wasn't enough testing.

So lets assume that the real figure was double that. So 1 case per every 1,625 people.

The UK has a population of 60 million. That would give a high number of 36,923 cases per day.

Remember that India has vaccinated less than 10% and there was no lockdown during the latest peak.

We have vaccinated over 50% of eligible people twice, and over 75% have had one dose.

There is a reason why the cases are highest in the younger age groups, because they are the only ones left without antibodies.

We are testing like crazy. The symptomatic, those in contact with the symptomatic and those who are LFT testing.

Even if you assume India was only testing and identifying a third of those infected with Covid, that gives a UK max figure of around 60,000 cases per day, which will then drop off rapidly, as India's figures have done.

We hit nearly 29,000 positive cases yesterday, so we aren't too far from the peak given exponential growth.

It is much better for those who are very unlikely to die or get complications from Covid to get it, and get it fast.

If you keep restrictions then it's likely that you push a lot of those cases into winter, when we will have flu to deal with.

Kids are due to finish school shortly after the 19th of July, so they won't miss school due to having Covid. Easier for CEV and CV children to avoid Covid as they are not at school.

There is logic there. Even Whitty admitted that all we are really doing now is delaying deaths rather than preventing them.

If you want to wear a mask, wear one. If you want to stick to the rule of 6 indoors, then do so. You aren't being prevented from carrying on with the restrictions for as long as you like.

If you look at India, there doesn't appear to be a virus mutation from there, despite it being let to rip. Is there a possibility that lockdown has contributed to the delta variant's ability to transmit? The previous variants were struggling to spread far enough to survive due to lockdowns, so it mutated into a more transmissible variant so it could spread despite restrictions.

We've got treatments, we've got a vaccine, there is no other magical cure coming.

Yes we'll all get it, multiple times throughout our lives most likely. What on earth did you expect?! This has never been in dispute. Testing will stop and you'll be none the wiser if it's covid or some other bug.

Cases don’t equal hospitalisations, most of those cases will have no impact on the NHS whatsoever.

Of course they don't equal hospitalisations! But there is a direct correlation. Which will impact on hospitals over the UK.

If only 1% of 100,000 cases (per day) need hospital - that;s 1,000 hospital beds needed (per day).

Silly old me is probably quited biaised on this as I work in a hospital and am fed up to the back teeth with Covid as well as all the idiots that seem to rock up and say 'oh it's fine, just let it run through the whole population'. Not a mention of track and trace - why did they spend billions of pounds on something they've decided not to bother with??

So lets assume that the real figure was double that. So 1 case per every 1,625 people

You think India managed to identify 50% of cases, when the UK the most testing country in the world manages maybe 20% even now, how exactly do you get to that?

Pandacatswolves, the most vulnerable were vaccinated January to match, and the last of those done by late April.

Patently untrue. One of my CEV parents was only given their last vaccine last month (June not March).
They have terminal cancer.

@sirfredfredgeorge

So lets assume that the real figure was double that. So 1 case per every 1,625 people

You think India managed to identify 50% of cases, when the UK the most testing country in the world manages maybe 20% even now, how exactly do you get to that?

In terms of the number the UK is likely to be able to identify as the peak of the next wave,

Obviously it's not going to correlate in absolute terms, we'll never know what the absolute number is. I'm trying to say that the numbers won't keep on rising forever, and that we are probably not far from the peak, before numbers begin to decline in any event.

It's not going to keep rising until Christmas.

As of July 19th people will not have to wear masks, under 18s will not have to isolate as contacts and people returning from Amber countries will not have to isolate. Then from August 16th double jabbed people will not have to isolate as contacts.

This means that 2 weeks prior to schools returning we will only be self isolating as positive cases or unjabbed adults.

So if my daughter catches it at school, her entire class who she will have been playing closely with and hugging (they're 7) will continue to attend school each day and me and her dad can continue going out and about as normal socialising with people unless we get symptoms and get a positive test.

Case numbers will go up, there's just no way they won't, we have all seen the evidence about asymptomatic transmission and transmission in the days before symptoms appear.

Yesterday there were 28773 positive cases reported and 406 hospital admissions. A rough calculation on that says that if there were 100,000 cases a day we could expect around 1400 hospital admissions a day.

That would impact the NHS.
That would impact patients waiting for other treatment
That would impact businesses who have 100,000 positive people a day being put into self isolation and therefore unable to work
That would impact schools as some of those 100,000 people a day will be the teachers who will be unable to be in schools teaching the children

And I noticed in the PPs above that some people are looking at the 100,000 or 0.14% of the population as a stand-alone number rather than cumulative, if that's how many positive we will have a day then over a 10 day isolation period at any point we could have up to 1,000,000 people self isolating.

While I do understand the need to release some restrictions as the appetite is no longer there and we need to take steps towards normality, i also understand the need to reduce children self isolating due to the impact on education. I don't agree that it has to be an all or nothing approach.

Masks in my opinion are a reasonable mitigation measure as is isolating on return from an amber country and if living in a household with someone who has tested positive.