100,000 cases a day by August....bloody hell

[ssd]

We're all going to get it eventually it seems

@LawnFever

But if those cases lead to fewer hospitalisations and deaths because of the number of people vaccinated then the number of case numbers isn’t as relevant.

I think they should stop reporting the cases, it’s scare mongering.

Reporting numbers is not scaremongering. It's factual. It's literally the reality of what's happened on a particular day.

It's no more scaremongering than the days weather or how many births there were.

@walkoflifewoohoo

"This is what I've been saying for weeks now.

Exponential growth, doubling times... it's basic maths.

But everyone has their heads in the sand."

Yeah, you keep saying it and ignoring the PPs who remind you we've had the vaccine now.

You didn't know the term "exponential growth" until last year. Turn the telly off and get yourself out. It's the same three posters every time. Just need Dusty for the hat trick

I have a maths degree, I think I know the concepts behind exponential growth.

And we are an island nation, just like New Zealand.

"I have a maths degree, I think I know the concepts behind exponential growth.

And we are an island nation, just like New Zealand."

Use your maths degree to calculate how many people per square foot the uk has versus New Zealand.

Not to mention that the only similarity is that they're an island. How that island runs is completely different but you ignore that.

I mean one of them is a major world transport hub and the other is stuck out in the middle of fucking nowhere. You stick that in the box labelled IGNORE like you have vaccines.

Maths degree 🤣

@walkoflifewoohoo

"I have a maths degree, I think I know the concepts behind exponential growth.

And we are an island nation, just like New Zealand."

Use your maths degree to calculate how many people per square foot the uk has versus New Zealand.

Not to mention that the only similarity is that they're an island. How that island runs is completely different but you ignore that.

I mean one of them is a major world transport hub and the other is stuck out in the middle of fucking nowhere. You stick that in the box labelled IGNORE like you have vaccines.

Maths degree 🤣

The amount of people contained on the island has no meaning if there is no virus to go around.

It's the unknown factor in the variants that worries me, we may well incubate one that is not affected by the vaccine and has a worse onset of disease. People are already getting quite ill with delta after both jabs.

Oh, and I hope those who have spent the year confidently proclaiming that "there'll be no cases in summer because Covid is seasonal" are happy.

*Reporting numbers is not scaremongering. It's factual. It's literally the reality of what's happened on a particular day.

It's no more scaremongering than the days weather or how many births there were.*

Agree, if you think reporting factual information is scaremongering, you might want to speak to someone and get mental health support, because that's not a healthy reaction.

Having most of the population vaccinated is brilliant. It’s probably the NHS’s biggest achievement to date.

But removing all restrictions and accepting that there will be 100k positives A DAY is simply a fast track to new variants. Which may or may not be able to get around our current vaccines.

Huge risk + no mitigation = we will be in the shit again at some point

@PrincessNutNuts

And what of the people who's cancer was missed or treatment delayed, heart surgery cancelled, etc etc etc

They didn't have the option to demand services were kept running for them.

Does only covid matter now?

Every bed occupied by a covid patient because cases were allowed to run rampant is a bed that can't go to someone suffering with something else.

This.

Add in acutely short staffed healthcare settings. Due to Covid, Long Covid, and PTSD and burn out.

Oh, and of course the fact that vulnerable cancer and heart patients need to be kept safe from Covid. 1 in 5 of Covid infections were caught in hospitals.

@Hardbackwriter

Control the virus.

Like the countries who don't really have lockdowns - and also have kept 152,000 more of their people alive that our government has.

Go on then, explain how we'd get there from where we are right now. I haven't seen an answer to this that isn't just 'we should have done things totally differently around 19 months ago' which may or may not be true but isn't remotely helpful given that we didn't.

A few weeks ago we were at single figure deaths, less than 200 in hospital, and under 2000 cases.

We get so close even without a fit for purpose border policy and quarantine and test trace and isolate system - imagine what we could do if we had the essential basics of infectious disease control in place.

Austria's is pretty good. We could just copy theirs.

NPIs such as working from home help a lot.

Our Prime Minister scrapping most of them won't help at all.

About a month ago I suggested that we'd hit 119,000 cases in a day next week. I might have slightly over-egged it but I won't be very far out.

We're doing the opposite of the right things. That's why it's going to shit again.

What about people who have had reduced or no earnings for the last 15 months. It IS lockdown for them.

Yes. We definitely need to improve support for Long Covid sufferers. And in fact for all people who are unable to work or can only manage part-time, due to disability and illness.

Obviously we also need to reduce the risks, try to limit the number of new Long Covid disabilities. Simple and easy mitigation measures for opening up are needed. Like masks.

We're not going to have the kind of numbers recorded. They may be that high, but a lot of people who are vaccinated aren't going to have the symptoms/be ill enough to test.

think they should stop reporting the cases, it’s scare mongering.

Ah, censorship and gagging. What next. 'Disappearing people'? Reeducation camps?

Pretending something bad isn't happening doesn't make it magically go away and stop happening. Quite the opposite. It generally makes things worse. As we've learnt over the last year.

Deja vu.

They've quoted inflated figures before so they could definitely be doing it again now

Genuine question: who is 'they'? The gov or scientists? Do you mean inaccurate reporting of numbers? 'Quoting inflated figures' sounds like that, but I haven't read about this before.

It's about balance and mitigation.

Many many people die or are seriously injured in car accidents every year. It's not practical to ban driving. So we take mitigation measures, eg. Seatbelts.

Masks are a simple and easy mitigation measure. They don't stop us cautiously opening up. On the contrary, they enable it.

I felt a yawn coming, but it couldn't even be bothered

Tone deaf, imo.

@Benediction

"New Zealand has."

Yes but where do they go from here? Keep their borders tight shut and destroy their tourism economy? Or open the borders and accept that covid WILL come in? I have never understood the NZ exit strategy. I mean, I understand that they can get their vulnerable vaccinated and they will have many fewer deaths as a result, but at some point covid is going to rip through their education system as they will have no immunity. And then the rest of the world won't want NZ kids visiting their countries as they will be far more likely to be covid positive as they won't have developed immunity over time.

Does NZ explain their long term strategy anywhere?

They’re offering the vaccine to all 16+ in NZ and will likely offer it to under 16s in due course. There are vaccine trials being done for under 12s.

In the meantime NZ kids can get on with their lives with little risk of getting Long Covid or other issues because their government isn’t letting Covid rip.

Understanding prevalence helps us judge how to manage risk, personally and collectively.

Numbers still matter because, as PPs have said:

1. the greater the amount virus circulating the greater the opportunity for mutation (and potentially more virus resistant strains emerging), and,
2. even the relatively small percentages of those who are young or who are double-vaccinated but are likely to require hospitalisation will result in large numbers when case numbers are very high. So still the potential to overwhelm the NHS.

Watch what happens to New Zealand when they open the borders. Or will they stay closed forever?

I have family in NZ (and Australia). They're in no rush. No desperate need to open up. Their economies are booming.

And, the UK is not a special country that everyone desperately misses. When sensible places like NZ, Australia, Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea, Vietnam etc open up, they have many other countries they can open up to, without needing to include high risk countries like the UK. We'll be at the back of the queue. Quite understandably.

Meanwhile life is free and normal in NZ. And most of Australia (remember that Sydney and Melbourne are as representative of Australia as London is of the UK). Booming economy too.

As an added bonus, they're doing their bit for climate change.

My God, forget New Zealand. Turn your heads slightly to the right and have a look at Brazil and Peru currently... That is more applicable.

They’re offering the vaccine to all 16+ in NZ and will likely offer it to under 16s in due course. There are vaccine trials being done for under 12s.

In the meantime NZ kids can get on with their lives with little risk of getting Long Covid or other issues because their government isn’t letting Covid rip.

This. Undisrupted schooling. And children there aren't having to deal with the trauma of Covid bereavement.

If hospitalisations and deaths are within limits that won't overwhelm the country, then re-opening will go ahead. You can agree or disagree but that's the reality. 100,000 cases a day will mean a lot of people off sick from work even with the vaccine protection but what the fuck else do we do? We can't go on like this.

And maybe crank your heads to the left and have a glance at Indonesia, where more than 500 children have died of Covid... 698 children, I heard on the news, recently, dead there of Covid... Now there's an 'uncharted territory' this sociopathic creep has mandated the UK sails into.

@unwuthering

My God, forget New Zealand. Turn your heads slightly to the right and have a look at Brazil and Peru currently... That is more applicable.

Agreed. The UK is on course to becoming similar. Not just wrt Covid. The extreme wealth gap. The poor in slums, the rich hiding in gilded cage gated communities, protected by private security - but with the risk of very violent carjacking and muggings when they venture out. Very little inbetween. Brazil is a country where extreme inequality and poverty for many, with poor access to good healthcare and malnutrition, led to 1300 babies dying of Covid. We really don't want to emulate them. George Osborne tried his best though. His failed economic policies of austerity (that left the country in more debt) have set us on that path. We need to turn back.

what the fuck else do we do?

What the scientific and medical experts, including those at the WHO advise. We take mitigation measures to allow a safer opening up. Simple and easy things, like masks.