100,000 cases a day by August....bloody hell

[ssd]

We're all going to get it eventually it seems

Better now and more people have immunity by winter

Cases don’t equal hospitalisations, most of those cases will have no impact on the NHS whatsoever.

Hospitilations are already going up. There is a 2-3 week lag between contraction and impact. Time will tell.

How long do people want mitigation’s continuing for when there are virtually NO CASES!!!

That's weird that you think there are virtually no cases @byvirtue , on the 5th of June there were about 5,600 cases, on the 5th of July there were 27,000 cases ( with a rate of 186,000 in total in the week 30th june to 6th of July ), and that is just the confirmed positive cases. That is quite a considerable jump in cases.
However if you look at other times when we had a similar number of cases, so around the 19th of December and towards the end of January, you will notice there is a big difference in the number of hospitalisations and people being cared for in ICU, yes they are increasing, there has been a rise of nearly 30% in hospitalisations up to the 30th of June, but that was from a very low starting point, todays figures will give a better idea of how things are going.

It is alright for people to bang on about the vulnerable being protected and people taking personal responsibility but I have 2 vulnerable kids and trying to get them vacinated is like banging your head on a wall . Therefore we are now going backwards instead of forwards as we are going to be even more at risk now as even in open spaces there will be no social distances etc . So back to full on lockdown for families like ours then.
But no one cares about these children and they have been largely ignored throughout this whole mismanaged debacle. I despair.
Let parents decide if they want to risk vaccination for children like ours and then it will truly be a level playing field.

We hit nearly 29,000 positive cases yesterday, so we aren't too far from the peak given exponential growth

You keep believing that. Come back in a month, try 10X that figure.

I was listening to LBC Radio last night which mentioned that in fact there is THREE TIMES more testing taking place than last December when we had the same number of infections.

Plus it is only 1 in 50 out of the current figures that end up hospitalised.

It needs getting into perspective!

What is the alternative OP? Positive 'cases' do not equal sick people, for the most part. We don't fear getting the flu, chicken pox, or in fact most illnesses which for the vast majority are mild, despite being deadly to a some. I'm not saying that it's not worrying, but you just simply can't have a whole nation living the way we have been for the past 18 months. People are mentally, financially and physically broken. We should now expect the government to fund research into medicines to treat or prevent the illness from becoming serious, as there is already evidence gathering for some.

"Turn the telly off and get yourself out. It's the same three posters every time. Just need Dusty for the hat trick"

Erm, @walkoflifewoohoo 'three' is already a hat trick.

@AlecTrevelyan006

Highest recorded number so far is 68,503 on 8 January. I’ll be surprised if it goes higher than that but even if it does it is largely irrelevant so long as the NHS does not become overwhelmed

I think you'll find the NHS is already overwhelmed and its less to do with Covid and more to do with under funding for quite some time:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57419504.amp

I think if we turned our attention to prevention and treatment it would be a good use of cash

Let’s test everyone’s vitamin d status in September and supplement where needed. Let’s finally get on top of ultraprocessed foods. Community kitchens in areas with most poverty serving homemade fresh meals.

Scotland will have one of the worst covid rates in the world. You need only walk down any high street to see why. People are in generally massively overweight, in towns w out high streets serving three generations of utter crap.

I would love to see some funding and brains into this issue. It has got WORSE recently and not better. It is very sad

Fingers crossed a vaccine resistant variant does not develop from the high numbers of cases.

I am not sure who is supposed to benefit from the virus running rampant. The hospitality sector is already complaining because they will not be able to function with all their young staff off sick.

It is completely throwing children and CEV under a bus.

The vaccine has reduced deaths to 10% of January rates but on the predicted case numbers we can still expect 300 to 600 deaths a day. The vaccine reduces your risk profile by 20 years so if you are a vaccinated 65 year old you have the risk of an unvaccinated 45 year old. Something worth bearing in mind if you are a baby boomer planning to ditch your mask.

All for the sake of retaining a few basic measures. Good luck everyone.

We can’t lock down society forever. We have to make our own risk assessments. Cases may be going up because people keep testing when they don’t have symptoms.

However, hospitalisations and deaths aren’t common anymore.

My grandparents and those in my family who are immunocompromised (including myself) want society to go back to normal.

Surely the alternative is not to lift restrictions all at once?

Its all one big experiment but one Bojo, according to Cummings and his own interviews, has always wanted.

As others have said, the NHS cannot cope with the extra cases as it struggles to deal with backlogs i.e. Exeter District hospital has just been put into red alert due to AE pressures, staff shortages, we don't have european levels of healthcare.

*You must realise that a lot of pregnant women won't want to take the risk of vaccination while pregnant? I didn't realise until I had mine, but many women don't even get the flu jab because of concerns for their baby.

My friend is pregnant now, third trimester, and was advised by her midwife not to get the vaccine*

I am astounded a midwife is giving that advice I would consider it downright negligent actually. Yes ideally one would get vaccinated before pregnancy- however given the current case rates and the planned opening up the risk benefit of vaccination is clearly in favour of vaccination.

I have said this before (and been flamed) but anyone now pregnant, knowingly got pregnant during a pandemic, which in most cases was a choice, the vaccines were approved in December. None of the circumstances they find themselves in should be a surprise.

@Reastie

Something just occurred to me reading this thread. They’ve ordered boosters for the vulnerable this winter. We don’t know how long the vaccine works for (ie immunity may be short lived ). Are they being clever in thinking over winter vaccine immunity could be reducing and so best get as many people have it whikst vaccine level is good and it’s summer to get more antibodies and make it easier in turn during the long hard winter? Disclaimer, this science may be totally off, it’s more of a self musing

I think this is exactly what’s happening- pretty much what BJ said - if we don’t open now in summer when respiratory illnesses are low, when will we open? Obv he’s just after herd immunity and can possibly get away with not overwhelming the nhs at this point

@ohfourfoxache

Having most of the population vaccinated is brilliant. It’s probably the NHS’s biggest achievement to date.

But removing all restrictions and accepting that there will be 100k positives A DAY is simply a fast track to new variants. Which may or may not be able to get around our current vaccines.

Huge risk + no mitigation = we will be in the shit again at some point

Also no country outside the UK is going to want us there.

All for the sake of retaining a few basic measures

The current restrictions are not sufficient to prevent 100,000 cases a day, so no, the restrictions would be needed to be increased to do that (indoor socialising out almost certainly)

@Indigopearl

Fingers crossed a vaccine resistant variant does not develop from the high numbers of cases.

I am not sure who is supposed to benefit from the virus running rampant. The hospitality sector is already complaining because they will not be able to function with all their young staff off sick.

It is completely throwing children and CEV under a bus.

The vaccine has reduced deaths to 10% of January rates but on the predicted case numbers we can still expect 300 to 600 deaths a day. The vaccine reduces your risk profile by 20 years so if you are a vaccinated 65 year old you have the risk of an unvaccinated 45 year old. Something worth bearing in mind if you are a baby boomer planning to ditch your mask.

All for the sake of retaining a few basic measures. Good luck everyone.

Trouble is that masks/SD etc isn't working is it? We've already got exponential growth. To stop the current wave, we'd need to go back into lockdown. We can't do that because we now know it takes 3 months, and if we lockdown now, we lose Summer and come out in Autumn, when the next wave would be more dangerous. The vast majority of adults are doubled jabbed, the young who aren't are at low risk if they catch covid. It's as goos a time as any to let it rip and build the herd immunity.

The other issues is that the uptake of the vaccine is very patchy. London is a real worry. The lighter colours of this map show where uptake is the lowest. For most of London the % of adults with second doses is less than 40% and around 60% with 1 dose.

covid.joinzoe.com/data#vaccinations

@sirfredfredgeorge

All for the sake of retaining a few basic measures

The current restrictions are not sufficient to prevent 100,000 cases a day, so no, the restrictions would be needed to be increased to do that (indoor socialising out almost certainly)

Yes and with summer, this is an ideal time to to keep indoor socialising to a min until more vaccinated. Around 30m people have had one or no vaccination.

Only a tiny % have to end up in hospital to cause issues.

However, the footie is a super spreader event of mass proportions, so i'm not actually sure anything would work now to limit infections.

@NannyAndJohn

This is what I've been saying for weeks now.

Exponential growth, doubling times... it's basic maths.

But everyone has their heads in the sand.

You have been saying this for weeks, yes, but your figures and predictions have been way off.

As others have said, the NHS cannot cope with the extra cases as it struggles to deal with backlogs i.e. Exeter District hospital has just been put into red alert due to AE pressures, staff shortages, we don't have european levels of healthcare

It is also due to delays with discharging patients who have no onward care (so not due to covid) and pressures across paediatric services (not covid). Paint an accurate picture, not one that screams RD&E is on RED ALERT COZ OF COVID.