100,000 cases a day by August....bloody hell

[ssd]

We're all going to get it eventually it seems

[quote Mrstreehouse]@NannyAndJohn where are you getting your figures from for herd immunity???[/quote]
His/her finger in the air!

@jasjas1973

Javid is saying now that there will be extra pressure on the NHS.

The NHS has no capacity to handle this, if we had EU levels of HC, then fair enough but we don't.

We have to play the cards we have.

He's also said that the increased pressure can be met.

@Horehound

Well maybe the NHS just isn't bloody adequate then! I do wonder why we Cceot a sub standard level of care and we all had to endure three shitty lockdowns so at not to overwhelm the NHS. The lockdowns were never about saving lives it was always about not breaking the NHS. If it can't cope after millions and millions of people are vaccinated, then maybe it's time to go.

Even moreso since a huge number of infections were acquired IN hospitals in the first place. If people aren't "safe" in hospitals, there's no hope.

Lol that is hilarious. A direct quote which states it can withstand the pressure and a doom monger saying it definitely can't 🤔🤣

Very true @Kazzyhoward

I know lots of vulnerable people now too worried to go out and spend money because people are no longer wearing masks

Masks have been mandatory in shops for a year. Were they out spending in that time.

BunsyGirl do you truly think the three or four posters who infest every single thread with predictions of doom care about the genuinely anxious - or indeed about anything except winding others up?

It's absolutely not my place to tell folk what to post, but I honestly don't know why people keep engaging ... surely it's obvious by now just how much they're relishing it?

I can't be the only one who reads the "Data Threads" for good, solid, sensible information and I thoroughly recommend them, not least because they don't get derailed with this silliness. Someone did try recently, but the wiser posters on there shut it down pretty darned fast

@Puzzledandpissedoff no I don’t and I think that Mumsnet should do something about it.

@Ooodlesofboodles

I don’t go out shopping at the moment because I hate wearing masks. From the 19th July I still won't go out shopping because Delta is out of control and I would prefer not to catch it and bring it home to my family. I won't shop normally until the virus has settled into a more normal endemic pattern. That will take time.

Out of interest How long are you prepared to wait? and what numbers of infections/cases/deaths would entice you out?

@MercyBooth

I know lots of vulnerable people now too worried to go out and spend money because people are no longer wearing masks

Masks have been mandatory in shops for a year. Were they out spending in that time.

Yes when cases dropped and others around them were wearing masks they were.

This paper makes an interesting reading on the economics of restrictions comparing the economic impact of lockdowns in Norway compared to personal responsibility in Sweden. Basically Sweden fared just as poorly economically as when cases were high people were too scared to go out and spend. So it had a lot more deaths for no economic benefit.
www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/07/07/business/sweden-economy-coronavirus.amp.html

So it had a lot more deaths for no economic benefit

Let’s not forget the social and psychological benefits of nit being in lockdown.

Not

@TheKeatingFive

So it had a lot more deaths for no economic benefit

Let’s not forget the social and psychological benefits of nit being in lockdown.

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7503043/

The purpose of this survey was to map the effects on mental health and wellbeing of COVID-19 in the Swedish population and to explore whether they exceed the typical nonpandemic prevalence of depression, anxiety and insomnia. It was conducted 2.5months after the first appearance of COVID-19 on 31st January. It shows significant rates of significant depression (30%), anxiety (24.2%), and insomnia (38%) in Sweden. In correlation analyses, factors significantly positively associated with these measures of mental health included having a person in the household at risk for adverse outcomes from COVID-19, living in an apartment in a suburban setting, being unemployed, working part-time, being on sick leave or student, being single, having a history of a mental health problem, having current symptoms of COVID-19, and worries about health, family, or the economy.

Results here addressing the possible psychological impacts of COVID-19 in Sweden appear to show that, overall, these impacts are no worse, and no better, than impacts shown in previous studies in Italy [12] or China [9,10]. Differences in sampling and recruitment methods, and in the measures used, in addition to the time frame in pandemic terms, make precise comparison difficult. However, consistently, in each country and at each time point, results suggest that for any one mental health and wellbeing variable assessed, significant proportions of people appear adversely affected, roughly between one in six and one in three people, in any one of the variables assessed.

Results here addressing the possible psychological impacts of COVID-19 in Sweden appear to show that, overall, these impacts are no worse, and no better, than impacts shown in previous studies

It will be YEARS before we understand the full impact of lockdowns.

I know lots of vulnerable people now too worried to go out and spend money because people are no longer wearing masks

My OH is CEV. Whether masks are compulsory or not, we've been going out only at quieter times and only to quieter places so we could maintain social distancing. We'll continue to do that. We've never been convinced that masks offer much protection to wearer nor others. If others are worried when masks are no longer compulsory, then they'll have to do the same and simply avoid the busy times.

I'm not CEV, but even I have been walking away from shops that appear busy or where there seem to be too many people without masks. I.e. our village is on a main road. We have a Co-Op with a large car park. At lunchtimes, there are sometimes vans in the car park, i.e. scaffolders, roofers, etc - some of these people tend not to bother wearing masks (funny how scaffolders and roofers manage to do their job despite being mask exempt due to disability!!!). I just turn and go home if there are a couple of those vans in the car park.

People need to take responsibility. The CEV and other vulnerable will still be vulnerable next year, the year after etc., just as they'll have been vulnerable to flu and norovirus in previous years. Pre covid, my OH would avoid crowded places like football matches, big holiday hotels, supermarkets at weekends, etc etc.

Cases don't matter. It's hospitalised people and deaths from COVID that now matter. They need to change the graphs to show hospitalisation , those that leave well, those that die, and of those that die their age and general health (did they die of COVID with no underlying health conditions for example).

@NeverForgetYourDreams

Cases don't matter. It's hospitalised people and deaths from COVID that now matter. They need to change the graphs to show hospitalisation , those that leave well, those that die, and of those that die their age and general health (did they die of COVID with no underlying health conditions for example).

Absolutely agree. Things have changed now. Infection numbers don't really mean much anymore. They mean even less because more people than ever are being tested. We need to concentrate on effects, i.e. numbers with/without symptoms, numbers needing hospitalisation (and how long for), numbers in ICU (and how long for) and deaths (split between where covid is the primary cause and where something else was the primary cause).

Did I really just read all holidays banned even U.K. ones labelled as a low level restriction 😅. What a load of horse guff.

Cases are going up yup. More people in hospital yup but you know what we have to try and leave these lockdowns every so often to see if we can manage it without deaths jumping up.

But like checking the pool isn’t freezing by popping a toe in. We are popping our toes in and if it gets to bad will go ah no that’s not right.

@TheVampiresWife

Excuse me but i don't believe the Tories on the NHS, they have consistently underfunding it, even Hunt said that poor maternity services cost 1000 babies lives per year!!

Waiting lists to hit 13m... (5.4m now) how the fuck is that "the NHS can manage"

But of course, they don't care, they go private and if they needed the NHS will go to the front of the queue.

@Horst

Did I really just read all holidays banned even U.K. ones labelled as a low level restriction 😅. What a load of horse guff.

Cases are going up yup. More people in hospital yup but you know what we have to try and leave these lockdowns every so often to see if we can manage it without deaths jumping up.

But like checking the pool isn’t freezing by popping a toe in. We are popping our toes in and if it gets to bad will go ah no that’s not right.

Where do you read about holidays being banned?

It’s what another poster called low level restrictions that they would want us to have.

[quote Mrstreehouse]@NannyAndJohn where are you getting your figures from for herd immunity???[/quote]
Original Covid had a R0 of 3.

Alpha was 1.6 times more transmissible than Original Covid, giving it a R0 of 3 x 1.6 = 4.8.

Delta is 1.6 times more transmissible than Alpha, giving it a R0 of 4.8 x 1.6 = 7.68.

The herd immunity threshold is hence 100 x (1 - 1/7.68) = 87%.

Does immunity through prior infection not count in your calculations? Or are we just discarding accepted scientific knowledge now in favour of vaccines (which don't even stop the spread)?

Luckily we are nowhere near nannyandjohns fake figures. See attached for England.

@Horehound

Luckily we are nowhere near nannyandjohns fake figures. See attached for England.

"R0" and the "R number" are two different things.

R0 is a measure of spread when there are no restrictions in place, i.e. what it will be like after 19th July. It is this number that is to be used when calculating the herd immunity threshold.

The R number describes the spread in the presence of restrictions. It is still above 1, hence we are currently experiencing exponential growth and urgently need to reintroduce more restrictions in order to get it below 1.

Here is an informative article that explains the theory, however it was written before Delta so some of the numbers need to be adjusted upwards.

www.pnas.org/content/pnas/118/21/e2107692118.full.pdf