Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th June

[boys3]

UK govt press conferences Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

@Skool

It is unbelievable what is going on with GPs. Provide them with ppe and they really need to be seeing people properly. What an absolute joke to be offering phone calls for things that need to be looked at in person. Teachers are in schools, mixing with large numbers, with no protection and numbers amongst the young spiralling, but a GP can't see one individual at a time, face to face?

Numbers from the BMA

www.bma.org.uk/advice-and-support/nhs-delivery-and-workforce/pressures/pressures-in-general-practice

"GP to patient ratio
The number of patients per practice is 22% higher than it was in 2015, but the GP workforce has not grown with this demand.

As a result of this stasis, there are now just 0.46 fully qualified GPs per 1000 patients in England - down from 0.52 in 2015.

This is significantly below the average number of physicians per 1000 patients in comparable nations (3.5).

Appointments and prescribing
Practice appointments have increased by 4,352,612 (+18%) compared to March 2020 and 2,817,153 (11%) compared to March 2019.

Appointments with a GP are up +1,908,670 (15%) on March 2020 and +1,109,083 (8%) on March 2019.

Same or next day appointments are up +2,720,370 (21%) on March 2020 and +3,076,173 (25%) on March 2019.

These are all the highest on record (going back to October 2018).

Prescribing has increased significantly over the last year. Most notably electronic repeat dispensing increased by 25% from February 2020 to February 2021. The number of repeat prescriptions also increased by 15% over the same period."

Appointments with a GP are up +1,908,670 (15%) on March 2020 and +1,109,083 (8%) on March 2019

Is this counting the same thing though, a lot of GPs do a mandatory "phone appointment" before any "in person appointment", and while some of the phone appointments will not require an in person one, the majority I believe still do, so this would be a significantly larger increase in appointments than shown above for those doctors.

(ie if they do count those as distinct appointments, actual cases processed is down significantly)

Mask mandates dont encourage more people to wear masks and masks may show as having low effectiveness - but what that study also reports is that if you have people who take it seriously and wear them properly they work.

So personally I intend to continue to wear a mask - a close fitting mask.

Anyone gathering in pubs and restaurants for the next few weeks is likely to be contributing to herd immunity, it's not just the football fans. We have been eating out to rebuild the economy, wont be doing that now, it's back to takeaways.

90% of the population have antibodies but Delta is reinfecting some of those infected in the first wave. Havent seen any studies (Telegraph quotes one but behind a paywall) but anecdotally more common than for other variants. People who have chosen not to have a vaccine are likely to get Delta soon, fortunately most will not die of it.

Self isolation rules will have to change or there will be no NHS staff in hospitals.

Self isolation rules will have to change or there will be no NHS staff in hospitals.

That feels back to front to me.

'We have opened up too far and cases have exploded due to a new variant, but we've planned to open further so we will'

seems to get the response:
'Oh whoops, no NHS staff, we'll change the rules on self-isolation so close contacts of positive cases can treat our sickest, most elderly and most vulnerable people in hospitals, despite the fact that we know the vaccinated CAN get and CAN pass on the virus, just less efficiently than the unvaccinated.'

rather than the (much more logical and obvious)
'Ah. Let's look at this again and re-plan our opening up strategy.'

Not sure it has been mentioned haven’t looked back

But self isolation rules for NHS staff are being discussed atm, on radio yesterday

@Piggywaspushed

Zahawi has denied this morning that the gap will be closed. Guess that mean we can expect an announcement soon that the gap will close.

Quite! Anyone else sensing a u-turn coming tomorrow? The BBC is always a good barometer; a gentle drip feed to the masses. BBC app 5 morning update headlines included - 3 million backlog in NHS, face masks in Wales, woman who died after contracting 2 different variants and how to watch the final tonight safely.

Thread nearing conclusion I will get a new one loaded shortly

Delta is unstoppable with current levels of restrictions. Opening further will condense the wave of infection into a higher peak and shorter duration and it is better to have that in summer when people are healthier.

NHS staff are mostly double vaccinated and wear masks properly. We need to give them proper PPE, not inadequate surgical masks, and let them get through the next few weeks. At the moment they can be forced to isolate because a child or other family member is isolating, even if that person tests negative.

@cantkeepawayforever

Self isolation rules will have to change or there will be no NHS staff in hospitals.

That feels back to front to me.

'We have opened up too far and cases have exploded due to a new variant, but we've planned to open further so we will'

seems to get the response:
'Oh whoops, no NHS staff, we'll change the rules on self-isolation so close contacts of positive cases can treat our sickest, most elderly and most vulnerable people in hospitals, despite the fact that we know the vaccinated CAN get and CAN pass on the virus, just less efficiently than the unvaccinated.'

rather than the (much more logical and obvious)
'Ah. Let's look at this again and re-plan our opening up strategy.'

I don't have an answer to this.

I am listening to Noel Fitzpatrick on Desert Island Discs playing U2 right now.

"One life, with each other
Sisters, brothers
One life but we're not the same
We get to carry each other, carry each other
One"

So different to the situation you are describing. We haven't been supporting the sickest and most vulnerable very well, right from the start of this.

GP practices in England carried out 31.5 million recorded patient appointments in April, the latest figures from NHS Digital show.

The estimated appointment numbers include 7.5 million Covid vaccines delivered by practices or PCNs.

GPs saw 12.4 million patients, the figures show, with other members of the practice team doing 10.5 million appointments.

And well over half – 54.8% – of patients were seen face to face, up from 53.7% in March.

The figures showed that 45.5% of appointments took place on the same day as they were booked.

BMA GP committee chair Dr Richard Vautrey said the figures highlighted the ‘immense pressures’ that GPs and are under with the ever-increasing workload generated by the pandemic and patient backlog.

‘The data is a stark indication that this is not only an unsustainable way of working, but also that practices – often understaffed and woefully under-resourced – are starting to crack as a result.

He added: ‘It’s testament to general practice that in April, the majority of appointments were done the same day as booking.

‘The number of consultations taking place after a two-to-seven day wait is going up, which is a sign that practices are responding appropriately to the needs of their patients who want to wait for a specific timed appointment, often face-to-face.’

from here www.pulsetoday.co.uk/workload/latest-gp-appointment-figures-show-immense-strain-practices-are-under/

New thread ready once this one has finished
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4293868-Data-Stats-Daily-Numbers-started-11th-JULY

ignore the one I started with the wrong date - not exactly a promising start for a data thread . Deletion of that utterly unacceptable aberration has been requested.

So www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4293868-Data-Stats-Daily-Numbers-started-11th-JULY is the correct new thread

'Ah. Let's look at this again and re-plan our opening up strategy

The only option is a lockdown, opening up is irrelevant to this, the problems are the same if nightclubs are open or masks mandatory or not. Masks are mandatory, nightclubs are closed and R is well over 1, so if you think cases need to be brought down, then actually call for measures that make a difference.

This bollocks "oh we need to delay opening night clubs, oh we need to still require masks" is disingenuous opportunistic grandstanding, it does nothing to change the outcome, it seems to exist purely so people can say "I told you so", or to shift blame on to people.

Exactly.

What is needed is actually a genuine backtracking (though the end of the school term + end of Euros should help a bit, because it is in school-age children that a significant proportion of the new cases are being detected), rather than modifying the 'extra' steps planned for July 19th.

@sirfredfredgeorge

'Ah. Let's look at this again and re-plan our opening up strategy

The only option is a lockdown, opening up is irrelevant to this, the problems are the same if nightclubs are open or masks mandatory or not. Masks are mandatory, nightclubs are closed and R is well over 1, so if you think cases need to be brought down, then actually call for measures that make a difference.

This bollocks "oh we need to delay opening night clubs, oh we need to still require masks" is disingenuous opportunistic grandstanding, it does nothing to change the outcome, it seems to exist purely so people can say "I told you so", or to shift blame on to people.

I don't see how this follows? Or why a lockdown is needed?

Or why you think people who think we should open cautiously and not with lots of steps at once are grandstanding?

I think they're grandstanding because the measures we have now (which is all they're calling for continuing) are insufficient to prevent over a million cases over the next 2 months, so calling to continue them is not a call to stop cases, it's not a call to prevent infection, it's not a call to protect the vulnerable. Since it doesn't do any of those things, I can only conclude it's grandstanding.

A lockdown is needed if you think those million cases are on balance a negative against the costs of a lockdown. Masks and nightclubs won't change those million cases.