Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th June

[boys3]

UK govt press conferences Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

@NightmareLoon

Mandatory indoor masks in the Netherlands were removed last week, when social distancing can be followed. (I think the idea is that you wear them on public transport but not necessarily in the supermarket.)

Ah, that explains why the Netherlands is having such a rapid surge in cases.

June 26: restrictions dropped
July 1: 806 cases
July 2: 941
July 3: 1,215
July 4: 1,519
July 6: 2,209
July 7: 3,646
July 8: 5,431
July 9: 6,926
July 10: 10,345

July 11th Highest daily cases ever? If not then, then soon.

@PrincessNutNuts And then yesterday they rapidly closed nightclubs, have a midnight curfew for businesses, and re-imposed social distancing in restaurants, cafes, theatres, etc.

[quote NightmareLoon]@PrincessNutNuts And then yesterday they rapidly closed nightclubs, have a midnight curfew for businesses, and re-imposed social distancing in restaurants, cafes, theatres, etc.[/quote]
I'd imagine they did, yeah.

I hope they can get on top of it quickly.

People tend to overestimate the impact of masks (even SAGE has acknowledged it in their minutes).

Most of recent cases in Netherlands have been traced to nightclubs rather than shops or public transport.

@wintertravel1980

People tend to overestimate the impact of masks (even SAGE has acknowledged it in their minutes).

Most of recent cases in Netherlands have been traced to nightclubs rather than shops or public transport.

We can all look forward to U.K. nightclubs reopening in a matter of days then.

We can all look forward to U.K. nightclubs reopening in a matter of days then.

I have been wondering whether nightclub reopening will be better or worse than Euro 2020 gatherings. I am not sure I know the answer.

well, I've seen a couple of papers this week suggesting that masks (if everyone wears them in a setting ?indoors) reduce transmission by about 25%.

So people thinking that they don't work at all UNDER estimate them, whereas people thinking they are much more effective than that would of course be OVER estimating them.

Current thinking also appears to be that we need layers of mitigations, vaccines AND masks AND social distancing etc

If we can't open nightclubs when 90% of the population have antibodies I'm not sure that we ever can.

90% of the adult population I should say

I agree we’ve got to open nightclubs at some point - although I’m sure there are a few who would say no we don’t as they don’t like them anyway but that’s irrelevant

@PrincessNutNuts

Were the Netherlands just ticking along with Delta before the restrictions were dropped? If you show me data where the proportion of cases on 26th June by variant and then on July 10th? Presumably if it was the restrictions holding it back, it would be similar no?

[quote Itsprobablynotcominghome]@PrincessNutNuts

Were the Netherlands just ticking along with Delta before the restrictions were dropped? If you show me data where the proportion of cases on 26th June by variant and then on July 10th? Presumably if it was the restrictions holding it back, it would be similar no?[/quote]
No idea. I only clocked on that this was happening this afternoon when I saw that near vertical graph.

I don't see why opening (maskless) nightclubs means we have to drop masks everywhere else though. Masks might 'only' mitigate by 25%, but they also keep people aware and vigilant - plus help some to feel less anxious. Why not allow maskless entry to venues (such as nightclubs) where folk can show a negative test? Plus, of course, many are exempt. No, it's not perfect but no reason to throw in the towel.

well, I've seen a couple of papers this week suggesting that masks (if everyone wears them in a setting ?indoors) reduce transmission by about 25%

PHE/SAGE estimate is much less impressive - 6 to 15% with low degree of confidence.

I don't like masks but I'd be willing to keep wearing one if I understood the objective of doing so.

Given cases are rising now (with some restrictions and masks still in place) removing restrictions but retaining SD and masks would maybe slow the growth in cases very slightly but that would be it as far as I can see? Would very slightly reducing the rate of case growth be particularly advantageous?

@wintertravel1980

well, I've seen a couple of papers this week suggesting that masks (if everyone wears them in a setting ?indoors) reduce transmission by about 25%

PHE/SAGE estimate is much less impressive - 6 to 15% with low degree of confidence.

www.itv.com/news/2021-06-29/covid-wearing-masks-reduces-transmission-of-virus-by-25-according-to-research

It looks like there has been some recent research published.

Basically they do help to some extent, but aren't by themselves the complete answer.

I haven't seen the figures you quote, so I don't know what research they are based on, or when that estimate was made.

"well, I've seen a couple of papers this week suggesting that masks (if everyone wears them in a setting ?indoors) reduce transmission by about 25%."

"PHE/SAGE estimate is much less impressive - 6 to 15% with low degree of confidence".

Does anyone know whether figures quoted for the effectiveness of masks refer to masks being worn 'properly' ie surgical quality, only worn once, taken off properly etc, or as they are actually worn, ie often home-made, worn multiple times, kept in pockets etc?

And if transmission is already less likely by vaccinated people, is the low effectiveness of masks partly because there's proportionately less infection available to block?

@Sunshinegirl82

I don't like masks but I'd be willing to keep wearing one if I understood the objective of doing so.

Given cases are rising now (with some restrictions and masks still in place) removing restrictions but retaining SD and masks would maybe slow the growth in cases very slightly but that would be it as far as I can see? Would very slightly reducing the rate of case growth be particularly advantageous?

We are only 50% double vaccinated, which is what is needed with the delta variant.

The vaccines are doing a lot of heavy lifting but aren't enough on their own to prevent problematic spread with delta apparently, other mitigations are generally thought to be needed.

So slightly reducing the rate of growth, in tandem with vaccines, is indeed advantageous.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/992738/S1216_Considerations_in_implementing_longerterm_baseline_NPIs.pdf

Effectiveness is hard to measure, but a number of large-scale studies and reviews from data in other countries suggest impacts on transmission typically in 6-15% range, but potentially up to 45%. These lower values reflect real world differences in quality and wearing of face coverings, including some who do not wear them. Effectiveness is likely to be very heterogeneous depending on the setting and individuals.

In other words, masks potentially could be more effective but the numbers in real world are much lower that what is demonstrated through theoretical studies/mechanical experiments.

SAGE data might not take account of the latest study but it consolidates all the other research available so far.

And here is the actual study referenced in the itv link.

www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.16.21258817v1.full.pdf

Interestingly:

We do not find evidence that mandating mask-wearing reduces transmission. Our results suggest that mask-wearing is strongly affected by factors other than mandates.

In other words, masks only become effective when people take the situation seriously and start wearing them correctly. Government mandates make zero difference.

Would very slightly reducing the rate of case growth be particularly advantageous?

I can't see any advantage in slowing spread in under 12's - the vaccine is way too far away, the slower it spreads all that happens is more repeated bouts of isolation in the groups and the higher the risk to teachers etc. (as they'd be in repeated contact with infectious students)

12-16's there may be a vaccine soon enough that it would be worth delaying, but I'm not so sure, it's still a long time away and current restrictions are not effective enough to reduce spread so you have the same as the younger groups really.

In Adults, I guess it depends if we think there are a lot of people who are reasonably vulnerable and would get vaccinated now (and then 8 weeks for protection) such that it's worth minimising spread until then.

The 6-15% of masks, or even 25% is I don't think particularly worth it though, I simply don't believe that much additional spread would happen in environments with masks. A year ago we had supermarkets without masks and R below 1, so I think supermarkets simply aren't much of a driver, so a 25% reduction in spread there will be irrelevant compared to a restaurant, a pub, or a dinner party.

It is even more interesting - the correlation between enforced mandates and effectiveness of mask wearing is in fact 0. Not 15%, not 10%, zero!

For mandates we see no reduction: 0.0% [−8.8%, 8.2%].

Covid dashboard is showing we are at 66% of adults being double vaxxed, in my area we are at 71%.

I'm not convinced that requiring masks in shops, whilst people nip to the loo whilst in a restaurant etc is really going to have meaningful impact on spread with all other restrictions lifted.

I feel as though there are elements now that are almost theatrical in nature, it makes people feel like they are doing something but it actually not particularly valuable. I can see Marks's playing a role when you add them on top of layers of other mitigation but on their own I'm not convinced of their value.

it makes people feel like they are doing something but it actually not particularly valuable

Remember theatre for all its role as theater can actually be useful. Of course the theatre can also be harmful, so there could still be a balance, as stilltalkstotrees said above it may help some anxious - we certainly don't want those anxious folk shielding themselves away and therefore harming themselves more. Equally though the less normality the harder others may find it to get out, although despite being such a person, I don't think the numbers of such would likely be significant.

I'm not convinced that requiring masks in shops, whilst people nip to the loo whilst in a restaurant etc is really going to have meaningful impact on spread with all other restrictions lifted.

I'd agree if basic hygiene in this country was of a high standard. But I cannot count the number of times I had to ask my own colleagues to use a tissue. Felt like a broken record. And they were all grown people.
So, I for one, would like to see masks on/