Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th June

[boys3]

UK govt press conferences Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

The centre I work at has been doing walk-in Pfizer’s today. I’ve vaccinated quite a few previously reluctant people who have changed their minds now that numbers are going back up. Previously, they had felt safe as long as other people were vaccinated. The travel changes are also likely to encourage better take up.

I don’t see the rush that we had back in the spring, but I’m glad to see people steadily coming through.

At least 16-17, if they can decide to join the army, ride a moped, consent to all medical procedures and change their doctor... it's not really appropriate to not allow them the choice.

Also the change to isolation rules is going to incentivise some to get jabbed now.

The travel changes are also likely to encourage better take up
Also the change to isolation rules is going to incentivise some to get jabbed now

Both decrease my chance!

Interesting colour, and good to know that vaccine stocks are robust and not impacting take up.

I really like the new maps showing vaccination rates on the gov website. That said, it makes it clear how stark the differences are across the country. I do worry about low take-up rates in all of the major cities (which I know is driven by so many factors) - I’m in London and the population density is so high and more people rely on public transport, etc. Hopefully those who are borderline in their decision take up their shots soon so that they reduce their risk during this peak.

I’m in Bristol which also appears to have a low take up but I think it’s because we have such a large student population who have only just become entitled to being vaccinated.

@RoseWineTime

I’m in Bristol which also appears to have a low take up but I think it’s because we have such a large student population who have only just become entitled to being vaccinated.

There's also been lots of infection in the student population, which delays vaccination. Dd has had to wait 4 weeks follow her first jab.

@sirfredfredgeorge

The travel changes are also likely to encourage better take up Also the change to isolation rules is going to incentivise some to get jabbed now

Both decrease my chance!

Why @sirfredfredgeorge?

If supplies of Pfizer aren't a problem why are they so reluctant to bring forward 2nd doses? I know in London people are able to walk in but where I am it's strictly 8 weeks.

Lambda is here.

qz.com/2030844/after-delta-lambda-covid-19-variant-is-on-countries-radar/

Interesting article on children with Covid with lots of figures: www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57766717.

From the research, 25 CYP deaths and 6 had no underlying conditions:
"Neurological conditions were the commonest comorbidity in both the CYP who died of SARS-CoV-2 (n=13/25, 52%) and the CYP who died of all other causes (n=1218/3080, 40%; chi2 1·6, p=0·29)."
"Amongst the 25 CYP who died of SARS-CoV-2 there was one child with each of the following comorbidities; congenital cardiac, oncological, haematological, obesity, endocrinology and complications of prematurity."
Although it says "endocrinology" above, it also says none with Type 1 diabetes (so Type 2 most likely, or other endocrine condition possible).

My quotes are from the linked research paper: www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-689684/v1.
It's refreshingly pleasing for a journalist to link the actual research article instead of making us hunt for it.

Very very interesting, thanks @MRex

That is the second time I have now seen some scientific input from Russell Viner that didn't drive me into a rage!

He is supporting vaccination of children with comorbidities.

I notice that asthma is on there (affecting just 3 of the very very small number - 25 - of children and young people who died with covid,very sadly).

So I find that reassuring - tiny number of children - 250 - going to ICU with covid - and heartening - we have vaccines approved for ages 12-15 - and there is scientific support now for vaccinating the vulnerable ones.

Thank you again.

"**There were zero deaths in CYP with an isolated diagnosis of asthma or epilepsy. All the deaths in CYP with asthma or epilepsy had an additional neurological comorbidity."

Very interesting article on how good Pfizer and AZ vaccines are against Delta and Beta. The PDF can be downloaded here that I'm quoting from: www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03777-9
Looks like 4 weeks post second dose AZ is the sweet spot (a thread or two back, we were wondering how long):
With Pfizer, 13% of individuals neutralized the variant Delta after a single dose. 81 to 100% of individuals neutralized any of the four stains after the second dose, at W8. This fraction remained stable at W16, with the exception of variant Beta, which was neutralized by only 46% of the
individuals. 74% and 61% of individuals that received a single dose of AstraZeneca vaccine neutralized D614G and Alpha strains, respectively. This fraction sharply dropped with Beta and Delta variants, which were inhibited by only 4 and 9% of the sera. Four weeks after the second dose
of AstraZeneca, 95-100% of individuals neutralized the four strains.Therefore, a single dose of Pfizer or AstraZeneca was either poorly or not at all efficient against Beta and Delta variants. Both vaccines generated a neutralizing response that efficiently targeted variant Delta only after the second dose.

And for unvaccinated who had covid then later got one dose (earlier in article but new interesting to me so I only just decided to copy it):
Between 76% and 92% of the individuals neutralized the
four strains at M6. The fraction of neutralizers was lower in the second cohort at M12, a phenomenon which was particularly marked for Beta and Delta. 88% of individuals neutralized Alpha and only 47% neutralized Delta. After vaccination, 100% of convalescent individuals neutral-
ized the four strains (Extended Data Fig.7c). Thus, variant Delta displays enhanced resistance to neutralization
by sera from unvaccinated convalescent individuals, particularly one year after infection.

Sorry, I wish we could edit to reformat when it goes wrong and becomes a wall of text .

@cantkeepawayforever

If they have supplies, they should do 12 - 17 year olds. It would make all the difference to schools in September.

I think JCVI have yet to make a decision on12-15s first.

This table summarises neatly for TLDR

Sorry, I'll stop over-posting soon. Just to point out from the table:

1. AZ very highly effective
2. Does this indicate bad news that Pfizer is less effective? I don't think so, because it tested Pfizer second jab at 3 week interval and AZ at 12. The UK approach to vaccinate with a bigger gap between doses may be the key, but boosters should fix this for countries who had a small gap.

@MRex

Sorry, I'll stop over-posting soon. Just to point out from the table: 1) AZ very highly effective 2) Does this indicate bad news that Pfizer is less effective? I don't think so, because it tested Pfizer second jab at 3 week interval and AZ at 12. The UK approach to vaccinate with a bigger gap between doses may be the key, but boosters should fix this for countries who had a small gap.

Thanks MRex. That is very useful although I would like to see results for AZ post WK4 2nd dose.

It does suggest though that we won't be the only highly vaccinated country that will have an issue.

Canada I think may be one to watch. They have primarily used Pfizer and I believe there is a longer gap than say US. They've still got a little catching up to do re 2nd doses but are vaccinating fast.

Yes, we need to see if there is longer term evidence of efficacy waning. It's also worth noting this study validates France's strategy of single dose for those who've had a confirmed infection.

I wonder how many of the children who died or were seriously unwell with covid who also had neurodisabilities lived in residential care or relied upon carers coming to their home? I know the government acknowledges that a lot of its data on people who have a shielding condition isn't accurate with regards to covid risk because they were asked to shield and this were less exposed. I hope it isn't the case, but do wonder if maybe these children were unable to be shielded properly due to their care needs when compared to other children with serious vulnerabilities.

France's strategy of single dose for those who've had a confirmed infection

Anyone know what opposition there is to this in france and other places when they find out it doesn't let them travel to the US etc. without quarantine as they don't consider them vaccinated?

The Guardian reports the same thing

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/09/first-year-of-pandemic-claimed-lives-of-25-youngsters-in-england

But the way they report it is more measured and cautious than the BBC.

Eek I had 2 Pfizer 4 weeks apart as part of a trial