Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th June

[boys3]

UK govt press conferences Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Doubt they’ll give it to us …

My understanding of bank holidays is that they are a statutory requirement - so workplaces have to honour them. I'm willing to bet people on zero hours contracts don't count for those purposes though.

Canada will be interesting, as they have opened up the option of mixing vaccines to anyone who wants to do it (I think partially because of supply issues). I think the trials into mixing looked good, so this might turn out to be beneficial.

Cases flattening in sales and going down in Scotland apparently because behaviour change … can’t wait for England’s !
mobile.twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1413538833824690177

Is the behavioural change stop testing after going to the pub though?

If it was other changes, we'd expect to see it in the mobility report right, less retail activity (pubs) more home activity? A quick look at a few in the google mobility reports for Glasgow etc. show no change, there is a large drop in "parks", but I suspect that's weather related, rather than behavioural change.

[quote EasterIssland]Cases flattening in sales and going down in Scotland apparently because behaviour change … can’t wait for England’s !
mobile.twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1413538833824690177[/quote]
Are schools closed now in Scotland? This could explain the decline in cases.

Schools in Scotland close around last week in June.

Cases in Scotland started going down from June 28th.

It would have been a couple of days too early for schools (that finished on June 24th) however it does align with the drop off of the Scotland's team from Euro 2020 (June 22 + 5 days incubation period).

It may be an oversimplification (there are always several factors contributing to case dynamics) however observational data suggests that football (and related gatherings/celebrations) might be a significant driver of the infections.

Cases in Scotland may be going down but our local Health Board ( Tayside) is reporting increased hospitalisations especially Ninewells in Dundee .

High volume singing expels a higher concentration of infectious droplets.

Cause of infection:

Continued in every indoor space:

Sorry, for balance I should add...
Cause of infection:

https://twitter.com/john_actuary/status/1413501047771914240?s=12

Current data points appear to be on a different trajectory than the last lot of modelling.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachmentdata/file/1000488/S12999SPI-M-OMediumTermProjections.pdf

Yes I was extremely unimpressed by the Scotland fans singing on the plane. And if I were in a banned choir I’d have been pretty cross at hearing the extremely loud singing coming from my local English pub during the last two games.

twitter.com/bristoliver/status/1413194847226314753?s=21

A recent data point on the Warwick R sensitivity modelling

Current data points appear to be on a different trajectory than the last lot of modelling

Is the models idea of an admission, and the data idea of an admission the same thing?. with the reports that 1/3rd of recent admissions involve no overnight stay at all in the stats, I don't believe these are part of the model (or the modelled deaths are modelling significantly more admissions->deaths than we've ever seen before)

Latest consensus statement:

The part that jumped out to me was this:

"Working from home currently occurs in the context of a wide range of other measures that also reduce the number of effective contacts that allow for viral transmission. While individually these other measures may not contribute much, together they do add up to a significant impact. There is scope for the epidemic to grow considerably more quickly if all these mitigating factors are relaxed over a short period of time."

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachmentdata/file/1000410/S12988SPI-M-OConsensussStatement.pdf

@sirfredfredgeorge

Current data points appear to be on a different trajectory than the last lot of modelling

Is the models idea of an admission, and the data idea of an admission the same thing?. with the reports that 1/3rd of recent admissions involve no overnight stay at all in the stats, I don't believe these are part of the model (or the modelled deaths are modelling significantly more admissions->deaths than we've ever seen before)

I think it is the same as the dashboard - the model itself says

"England: Number of patients admitted with confirmed COVID-19 and the number of inpatients diagnosed with COVID-19 in the past 24 hours. Taken from NHSE COVID-19 Situation reports "

and the actual data it has in for June 27 seems to be the same as the dashboard England number - 226.

So I think it is modelling the same thing.

(and I use the word "modelling" advisedly, as all they seem to have done for England is just plot it out linearly......)

@PatriciaHolm

(and I use the word "modelling" advisedly, as all they seem to have done for England is just plot it out linearly......)

They do just project current trends on a few weeks.

But the doubling time of hospital admissions has jigged about quite a bit since their mid-May low point before settling into a rhythm - just like cases did.

(And like I expect deaths to do.)

Zoe's daily estimated transmission rate has now been stable for 4 days.

The regional trend is consistent with reported cases. Scotland and North West seem to be slowly going down, other regions are flattish, North East, unfortunately, is still on the rise.

@wintertravel1980 what about sw? Curious about what’s going on in Bristol. Hope soon going down

what about sw?

Yes, SW is rising as well (I missed it), although not as fast as NE.

Zoe is not very accurate at the local authority level but it has been very useful at highlighting early trends at the national and regional level. Having said that, it still flags Bristol as a problem area.

I have just been checked on by TTR. A rude person woke me from catnap and demanded to see my passport. I told him he should go first and ID himself. He then went on to show a badge type of thing on a lanyard. As if that was ID.... Didn't even have his name on it.
He still wanted my passport.
All I was willing to o is show my id card without the number and didn't let him take a picture.

Why is it so hard to train them to be polite, show ID and why the hell would they want to take a photo of my passport? I asked him if he'd also like my credit card and pin.

Great responses to vaccine for clinically vulnerable; the full research PDF is linked to the article. Of particular note to me from the full report was that only 5 people in the entire study of over 5m had no antibodies after 2 vaccines (over 7m total, but a raft were excluded). 5. (Also, looks like all were men?)
www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57781073

was that only 5 people in the entire study of over 5m had no antibodies after 2 vaccines

Hmm, that seems dubious just on the sensitivity of the antibody test ?

The number of antibodies vary, so we don't have a bar of "Above X = no symptoms", but if people can get some antibodies then they are likely to get some protection, and potentially more with an additional jab. I don't have any way to judge the accuracy of the antibody tests they've used though, do you?
This is the table showing success / failures for the CEV.