Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th June

[boys3]

UK govt press conferences Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

@NannyAndJohn

Doubling time now down to 11 days.

7 day case average = 14066.

7 day case average one week ago = 9109.

Doubling time in weeks = 1/log2(14066/9109) = 1.6 = 11.2 days.

150000 cases a day by the end of July (and that's without taking into account the opening up on the 19th).

Just like when you predicted 100k cases a day by 21st June? That didn’t happen did it. Not sure your predictions are very accurate.

@Wakeupin2022

Am I the only one eagerly awaiting the vaccination figures tomorrow?

Hoping I'm not disappointed and they have managed to jag a lot of youngsters today and again tomorrow

Don’t get your hopes up. They did this last weekend, and the figures were so so. Like 700-800,000 for the weekend if I remember correctly.

We are running out of people to vaccinate. Makes me feel sick how many doses are probably being wasted across the country now, hoping that some anti-vaxxer is going to pop by.

I generally lurk here as I don't have much to add and I've always found it really interesting. But lately it keeps getting derailed by predictions rather than data. Predictions which are made on loads of threads already. Can we just have this one for the data?

Seconded/thirded. I am grateful for these threads (but don't post as I can't always follow the maths as it is!) but I really appreciate the facts not opinions ethos.

If people keep posting to derail with their opinions and agendas, would it be better to ignore rather than engaging?

It's so frustrating though especially for those posters who have been putting so much proper work and effort in for so long (and which I thank you for!)

Just checked, it was 750,000.

Going to add my voice to those wishing this one thread could be kept for discussion of actual data, not for the same few posters doggedly dragging the thread down with their relentless doom and gloom agenda. I too mostly lurk rather than contribute, but I've found these discussions really informative over the past 15 months. If people want to indulge themselves by making the same inaccurate predictions over and over again, let them start their own threads.

Me too @IcedPurple. It's very frustrating.

BBC headline just now - by the end of today, half of all 18-30 year olds will have had first dose of vaccine. (So still a lot more jabs to be given!)

I remember reading on here the figures for how much 1 dose gives you compared to 2 and how that changes with the Delta. But does anyone know, does that also change with age? Would young people get more protection with their first dose due to younger/better immune systems? Has there been any data on this?

@RainbowCrayons

I remember reading on here the figures for how much 1 dose gives you compared to 2 and how that changes with the Delta. But does anyone know, does that also change with age? Would young people get more protection with their first dose due to younger/better immune systems? Has there been any data on this?

General view on other types of vaccine is that older people should get less immunity. Actual findings for covid vaccines have been similar however; this is mRNA: immunityageing.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12979-021-00219-y, and AZ: www.astrazeneca.com/media-centre/articles/2020/covid-19-vaccine-azd1222-is-better-tolerated-in-older-adults-than-younger-adults-with-similar-immune-responses-across-all-age-groups.html. I think I read that older people take longer to reach that same immune response, but I can't find a study so may be true or an unreliable memory!

I live in Gtr MCR and took my 19 year old for his vaccine Thursday Eve (he is autistic so needed accompanying). There was a very long queue of youngsters attending the drop in. Very good to see.

Checking in.

Also remember that immune response after one dose is higher in people with past infection, and more 18-30 year olds have had covid than other age groups.

Of course queueing indoors in a vaccine center for a couple of hours with lots of unvaccinated people also increases risk of catching it.

Thanks, boys - placemarking for the excellent info

There’s a pop up Moderna clinic running near me Friday and today, on Facebook they are showing decent looking queues of people waiting, so I am hopeful the push this weekend is doing well.

Thank you for the new thread :)

Any ideas on why the case numbers were down on Friday then up yesterday? I thought it was usually the other way round?

@BanditoShipman

Thank you for the new thread :)

Any ideas on why the case numbers were down on Friday then up yesterday? I thought it was usually the other way round?

Wasn’t there a glitch in the Scottish data so some were missing ? I think I read something like that

Yes, there was an issue with the data for Scotland on Friday and it was all added to Saturday- another way in which the stats can be skewed if you just look at daily reported figures.

Have the Scottish figures been added on Saturday? if you look at their daily reported numbers
21st June 1250
22nd June 2167
23rd June 2969
24th June 2999
25th June (Friday) 1747
26th June 2836

That suggests to me that we still could have roughly a missing 1k somewhere, as even if you average out 25th/26th you get only about 2300. It might be that it's dropping, which would be excellent news.

England was up on Saturday, which will have brought the UK total up.

23rd June 12765
24th June 13068
25th June 13498
26th June 15136

This is just me thinking out loud, but if the jump in cases in Scotland was related to the England game, as that was almost 10 days ago now, anyone that was going tobtest positive from it would already have done - so cases will decline now?

Thank you!

There has been an outbreak of about 100 cases iirc linked to a fancy private school in Edinburgh (parents, staff , and students), following an on site leavers' event ( an innocuous sounding outside tea party). Some parents are 'fuming'. Which I found a bit galling , given the vacillating of governments about children and risk/spread, sports days, open days etc and the pressure from many many parents to put on events such as proms.

Oh sorry, outbreak not 100 - 100 in attendance. A lot of 'fuming' nonetheless. These parents presumably knew about the party in advance?

Apparently there are still investigations into potentially missing cases in Scotland, so its likely there will be a catch up at some point.

The football effect is going to be an interesting one as well given the Italian and Austrian fans and Germany on Tuesday.

Also to me it looks like Delta hits an area and burns quickly fairly fast - we are currently the area in Surrey that it is hitting hard and fast. But then slows down - other local areas are dropping after hitting. One local school had 500 cases but now it is going down. At the moment more areas are in the rising stage so numbers are high.

The next 2-3 weeks I think are going to be telling as to what is actually going to happen. Not only with deaths and hospitalisations but also cases. NannyandJohn has one possible outcome/prediction but there are other ways this could go.

I just hope that the true picture, whatever that is, is clear when the govt make their decision about the next Step.