Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th June

[boys3]

UK govt press conferences Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

I was talking to my 83 year old mum today. She was wondering whether the voluntary sacrifice being made by mainly men gathering together in close contact in huge numbers at present would get us any closer to herd immunity.

I like the sound of your mum, @EducatingArti!

Helpfully, it seems the latest technical report on VOCs can’t provide data on hospitalisations and deaths past 21 June:

“Data presented in tables 4 and 5 are affected by an interruption to the data on hospitalisation provided to PHE by NHS Digital. This interruption means that it was not possible to provide data for the most recent weeks and have therefore updated previously reported data covering cases up until 21 June 2021.”

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1001009/Variants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_18.pdf

Netherlands has experienced an increase of 803% cases in a week
mobile.twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1413866371767803906

@sirfredfredgeorge

Would very slightly reducing the rate of case growth be particularly advantageous?

I can't see any advantage in slowing spread in under 12's - the vaccine is way too far away, the slower it spreads all that happens is more repeated bouts of isolation in the groups and the higher the risk to teachers etc. (as they'd be in repeated contact with infectious students)

12-16's there may be a vaccine soon enough that it would be worth delaying, but I'm not so sure, it's still a long time away and current restrictions are not effective enough to reduce spread so you have the same as the younger groups really.

In Adults, I guess it depends if we think there are a lot of people who are reasonably vulnerable and would get vaccinated now (and then 8 weeks for protection) such that it's worth minimising spread until then.

The 6-15% of masks, or even 25% is I don't think particularly worth it though, I simply don't believe that much additional spread would happen in environments with masks. A year ago we had supermarkets without masks and R below 1, so I think supermarkets simply aren't much of a driver, so a 25% reduction in spread there will be irrelevant compared to a restaurant, a pub, or a dinner party.

We were only just out of a massive lockdown this time last year and I was still being asked to shield. The first time I went into a shop for months was in August and we were definitely wearing masks. I really don't think you can suppose from that casal comparison that supermarkets aren't much of a driver, shopping and education have both been pretty significant.

Also, vulnerable people can choose not to go to music festivals or pubs but they need food and medicine etc, so they need to go to shops and it is not fair to make this more difficult and unsafe for them for the sake of wearing a mask for short period.

Neither is it fair on staff in retail, many of whom are very scared.

Regarding football I wonder what will happen after the euros.. They are at least outdoors, albeit shouting and singing.
I imagine major pressure points are loos, bars, restaurants around the area and then transport home in enclosed spaces.
I imagine a hot sweaty night club with zero ventilation will be far worse but of course far smaller numbers than the euros

Is the government panicking?

This is probably a sensible reaction at a national level to spiralling case rates, but seems rushed out on a Saturday night??

[quote EasterIssland]Netherlands has experienced an increase of 803% cases in a week
mobile.twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1413866371767803906[/quote]
Still think we should be getting rid of restrictions?

If we are reducing gap between vaccinations to 4 weeks, I wonder what the projection on fully vaxxed becomes over the next couple of months?

It is another lever we can pull but hard to know if it will be in time.

Not sure if with James ward or John burn murdoch we’re making estimates on vaccination, but I could swear I’d seen someone estimate available doses and deliveries.

By the way James Ward has an absolutely fantastic thread with his updated modelling estimates.

What are the Netherlands figures on hospitalisations? If negligible then ‘cases’ is irrelevant.

If the Dutch case numbers have only shot up over the last week they’ll probably need to wait another week to see the impact on hospitalisations.

Double infection is possible; an unvaccinated Belgian 90yo had Alpha and Beta at the same time and article links to similar investigation for a 17yo Portuguese boy. I'm unclear how variants are outcompeting each other if this is possible, so I suspect it is very rare. Does anyone know more?
www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57761343

@everythingthelighttouches

Is the government panicking?

This is probably a sensible reaction at a national level to spiralling case rates, but seems rushed out on a Saturday night??

Might it be a reaction to the study that found only 10% effectiveness after I dose?

Covid dashboard is showing we are at 66% of adults being double vaxxed, in my area we are at 71%.

A few of the current Covid host spots are way below this so bringing down to 4 weeks will help hugely, as long as uptake is good. Eg Newcastle is still not 50% double jabbed.

Spoke to a nurse at the RVI A and E yesterday. She said something needs to happen quickly. Too many staff self isolating and far too many patients.

Interestingly she said that it's the pandemic as a whole / wider impact that's the issue; average patient intake was 200 a day pre Covid; now it can be 500 a day. She cited less Gp face to face contact being one issue but also now the impact of self isolating or poorly gps (people are catching it despite jabs) or taking time for dependents who are ill.

They're stretched beyond any previous and absolutely dreading the autumn. She didn't feel a great deal would change following the rule changes; it's become the primary port of call over the GP and walk in centres. Services such as 111 are extremely stretched too.

Things really need to change re GPs.

It's ridiculous that people are having to go to A&E to get seen to - children especially.

I know its difficult when they have a temperature as its a symptom of Covid, but children do often need to be seen to determine what type of infection they have and if they need antibiotics.

It is unbelievable what is going on with GPs. Provide them with ppe and they really need to be seeing people properly. What an absolute joke to be offering phone calls for things that need to be looked at in person.
Teachers are in schools, mixing with large numbers, with no protection and numbers amongst the young spiralling, but a GP can't see one individual at a time, face to face?

I think it is also because we are reaching a saturation point on first vaccines. We have the stock so shrinking the gap makes sense get those who are willing to be double vaccinated
Once that is complete make a decision around the 12-15 year olds, booster shots and how to get those who haven’t been vaccinated yet

Exactly - we are in the situation where we are:

• Reaching a saturation point on first doses;
• Sitting on a stockpile of roughly 7 million vaccines (largely mRNA - based on extrapolated Scotland's numbers) earmarked for first doses but not supported by demand; and
• Are expecting our ongoing Pfizer deliveries to double throughout July (according to the interview of Pfizer UK CEO). Moderna might also ramp up (although this is guesswork).

Reducing the gap is the logical thing to do. We are now getting closer to the US situation where the limiting factor for vaccination is demand, not supply.

@Wakeupin2022

Things really need to change re GPs.

It's ridiculous that people are having to go to A&E to get seen to - children especially.

I know its difficult when they have a temperature as its a symptom of Covid, but children do often need to be seen to determine what type of infection they have and if they need antibiotics.

I don't think it's just not seeing people and certainly children are whipped in ASAP here for minor things. Although I know not everywhere is as good.

It's the wider impact of really high infection rates (anything over 500 per 100,000 from experience ) on self isolation and actually, staff are catching it despite double jabs (anecdotally from a few different gps.) I have a friend who is a Gp doing everything from home this week as his son has caught it from his teacher.

The surgeries are stretched with absent staff and so triage needs to be tight to be able to see those who need to be seen.

The knock on effect is like dominoes.

The only question about reducing the gap is the potential impact on vaccine efficacy.

While Pfizer was initially administered with a 3 week interval, the trial only included 25,000-30,000 people (from memory). The real life results from the UK, Canada and Israel (based on millions of vaccinations) demonstrated that:

• Countries that have extended the gap (UK, Canada) reported the 88% efficacy against Delta;
• Israel that followed the manufacturer's recommendation reported the reduced efficacy of 66%.

We do not know whether Israel's numbers were impacted by the shorter gap between the two doses but it is a potential trade worth considering.

Also allowing everyone who wants to be double vaccinated a 4 week gap if done fairly soon allows for those over 18 to be double vaccinated by the August 16th date for isolation stopping if double vaccinated or under 18.

It means as well that you can also push the covid passport idea. For me doing that until everyone over the age of 18 has had the opportunity to be double dosed.

However much the government try to style out the science behind the dosage gaps we have I think it has always been about managing the supply chain - and its one I agree with 12 weeks when the need was getting first dose, reducing down to 8 when it was clear Delta had less protection on one dose, down to 4 now our supply is out stripping demand

Hopefully reducing the gap will help in areas with lower uptake. I'm worried about London in particular.

In my borough only 66% of adults have had their first dose and 45% of adults have had two.

The higher risk will have had a bigger gap.
Personally i would have moved onto 12+ because 1 dose to them would have slowed infection. And they are in very close contact with 50yo parents and grandparents. (And they are saying they wont have to isolate at all....)

Zahawi has denied this morning that the gap will be closed. Guess that mean we can expect an announcement soon that the gap will close.

We are now getting closer to the US situation where the limiting factor for vaccination is demand, not supply

I'm not so sure, the whole process is still set up for ease of the vaccinators, if you're looking for willing but not bothered, it needs to be for the ease of those people.

The vaccination buses visiting areas, and the single dose vaccine are there as options for that.

And of course, for me personally, you need to make it easy for me - and you need to rule out vaccine passports for everything (national borders being crossed by non-citizens where identity is already controlled excepted)