Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th June

[boys3]

UK govt press conferences Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

🪑 pulling up a chair

Thanks !

@Thewiseoneincognito

🪑 pulling up a chair

Me too, the next few weeks are going to be very interesting. Thanks boys.

@lonelyplanet I think I prefer boring to interesting in these circumstances.

Checking in

Apologies for repeating myself from previous thread but is there anywhere I can find the answer.

If 18k cases leads to under 250 a day admittance to hospital when would the amount of cases become a worry. Being overconfident say 30k cases leads to 250 a day hospitalisation so would 120 cases a day be a worry, 240? Or is it all too difficult to predict with the vaccinations?

I've what is probably a silly question.

I've a couple of friends (both health workers) who have now had covid twice confirmed by positive tests each time with a reasonable gap (and negative tests between them).

On the government data website it says "People tested positive more than once are only counted once, on the date of their first positive test."
Does that mean that they would only count once? Surely if they have had a gap between them, they would count the second positive too.

@MargaretThursday

I've what is probably a silly question.

I've a couple of friends (both health workers) who have now had covid twice confirmed by positive tests each time with a reasonable gap (and negative tests between them).

On the government data website it says "People tested positive more than once are only counted once, on the date of their first positive test."
Does that mean that they would only count once? Surely if they have had a gap between them, they would count the second positive too.

Can't find anything equivalent for England, but WAles define a period of 6 weeks - in other words if the second infection is 6 weeks after the date of the first +ve test, it will be counted again.

gov.wales/understanding-data-coronavirus-covid-19-testing

I suspect the same will be true for England.

@Whichjab

Apologies for repeating myself from previous thread but is there anywhere I can find the answer.

If 18k cases leads to under 250 a day admittance to hospital when would the amount of cases become a worry. Being overconfident say 30k cases leads to 250 a day hospitalisation so would 120 cases a day be a worry, 240? Or is it all too difficult to predict with the vaccinations?

In all honesty, no one really knows yet, we can speculate and model all we like but ultimately we have to wait and see because there’s a lag between cases-hospitalisations-death

The vaccines have changed the game but we don’t know by how much, essentially this wave is a learning opportunity to see how the virus behaves.

@justwanttodanceagain

That would make total sense. Thank you.

Am I the only one eagerly awaiting the vaccination figures tomorrow?

Hoping I'm not disappointed and they have managed to jag a lot of youngsters today and again tomorrow

Checking in and hoping for a boring thread.

Or is it all too difficult to predict with the vaccinations?

Yes, I think it is, the real problem is vaccination breakthrough, the numbers of cases in the under 30's and not in a vulnerable group could be really high and hospitalisations would remain very low.

However a small amount of vaccine breakthrough to a serious case would rapidly become significant.

At the moment, there appears to be very little vaccine breakthrough towards serious cases (there's just been a few such deaths, and hundreds of this group die every day so some will be with covid, or covid ending their struggle the same as any other infection would have)

So I don't think we can say a number that would be an absolute concern.

Yes, someone asked earlier if it was still “baked in” - unfortunately we no longer know the recipe nor the exact oven setting!

I wonder how many threads we'll get through before it's time for the next lockdown?

Looking at today's numbers, not very many.

@AnyFucker

Checking in

You’re in a talkative mood 😄

@NannyAndJohn

I wonder how many threads we'll get through before it's time for the next lockdown?

Looking at today's numbers, not very many.

Scottish schools are done. England and Wales will shut in a few weeks. (Not sure about NI sorry). Students will be at home. It's summer and hopefully there will be more opportunity to socialise outside.

Big weekend of vaccination.

There is absolutely nothing to suggest we will lockdown again. The hospitalizations/ deaths at the moment absolutely don't support it.

And we've done it 3 times - that ship has sailed and it will no longer be as effective as in the past.

I think we're done with lockdowns unless things get very very bad & I don't see that happening if I'm honest. Ever the positive

🦠 Marking thanks for new thread

Doubling time now down to 11 days.

7 day case average = 14066.

7 day case average one week ago = 9109.

Doubling time in weeks = 1/log2(14066/9109) = 1.6 = 11.2 days.

150000 cases a day by the end of July (and that's without taking into account the opening up on the 19th).

@NannyAndJohn

Doubling time now down to 11 days.

7 day case average = 14066.

7 day case average one week ago = 9109.

Doubling time in weeks = 1/log2(14066/9109) = 1.6 = 11.2 days.

150000 cases a day by the end of July (and that's without taking into account the opening up on the 19th).

Doubling time now down to 11 days.

Huh? Latest ONS figures said cases had risen by 30% in a week which would mean a doubing time close to 21 days.

The ONS data is much reliable than PHE for looking at trends because it's unaffected by things like surge testing, or contact testing etc.

So my understanding was that the growth rate was slowing, i.e. R is still above 1 but falling.

Is there new data to dispute that?

@NannyAndJohn

Doubling time now down to 11 days.

7 day case average = 14066.

7 day case average one week ago = 9109.

Doubling time in weeks = 1/log2(14066/9109) = 1.6 = 11.2 days.

150000 cases a day by the end of July (and that's without taking into account the opening up on the 19th).

27th of June. I’ll remember that at tje end of July. As I remembered your 100k by 21st of June and 20k in hospital

Now it’s a data thread with actual data numbers … wouldn’t it be good if we sticked to it rather than our own predictions that might have noise ?

@EasterIssland
Now it’s a data thread with actual data numbers … wouldn’t it be good if we sticked to it rather than our own predictions that might have noise ?

This.

I generally lurk here as I don't have much to add and I've always found it really interesting. But lately it keeps getting derailed by predictions rather than data. Predictions which are made on loads of threads already. Can we just have this one for the data?

Scottish schools are done. England and Wales will shut in a few weeks. (Not sure about NI sorry). Students will be at home. It's summer and hopefully there will be more opportunity to socialise outside

I know people are seeing these at mostly positives that will reduce the spread, but I just see more of an opportunity for seeding events into new communities with more limited immunity, delta appears to cause significantly more spread after such seeding than any previous.

I do not expect to see a huge drop of cases because of the end of school / uni, those groups will just have more mixing outside as they reconnect with their mates from home / their cousins / the holiday campers.

I generally lurk here as I don't have much to add and I've always found it really interesting. But lately it keeps getting derailed by predictions rather than data. Predictions which are made on loads of threads already. Can we just have this one for the data?

Snap. I've followed these threads for months now and although I lurk rather than post, I've always found the data interesting and informative. There are plenty of other threads to post wild and often inaccurate predictions on.

(although of course it may change the reported cases if peoples pattern of testing change, but I do think people who have been testing 'cos school ask 'em etc. will likely continue testing as they head off to visit family etc.)