Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th June

[boys3]

UK govt press conferences Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

@JanFebAnyMonth

I just hope that the true picture, whatever that is, is clear when the govt make their decision about the next Step.

I would hope that the link between case numbers and how they translate into hospitalisation and deaths should be quite clear within the next couple of weeks.

I think that is why the 19th July was always a good and sensible option because not only give it the chance for a lot more vaccinations but also because it should be clearer.

An exit wave though was always expected and I think a summer one is preferable to the autumn.

EasterIssland - Now it’s a data thread with actual data numbers … wouldn’t it be good if we sticked to it rather than our own predictions that might have noise ?

The numbers of cases quoted are actual numbers. This is a data thread to discuss these numbers. If you don't like someone's view you can offer an alternative without bullying.

Here is another view of the way cases are going from Oliver Johnson. He reckons currently a 14 day doubling time.

mobile.twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1408803864720072705

Thank you for all the answers re Friday/Saturday :)

@Piggywaspushed anecdotal alert but in Worcestershire all the senior school proms and events etc have been cancelled. The year 6 prom (so last year before senior school) is going ahead, as is the whole year trip to Alton Towers, the plays, sports days etc. Bit weird.

@lonelyplanet your numbers are good , they’ve been done by someone that understands. Saying that in July we’ll be 100k cases is just a personal opinion. Not actual data specially. If you think I’m bulling someone then happy for you to report my post. However as you can see im not the only one hoping to stick to actual data and not to personal predictions

Does anyone know what the latest thoughts are for incubation period? I’ve got 4-5 days in my head but no idea why so it could well be wrong. Thanks!

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/27/delta-covid-variant-may-be-edging-race-against-vaccines?fbclid=IwAR02JGkpAXafgZO--qLK2TpfiQA2IlZzQ0HkWxVhmn0eOT1Kj29rGA2NiXk
To add to the immunity discussion.....

@BanditoShipman

Thank you for all the answers re Friday/Saturday :)

@Piggywaspushed anecdotal alert but in Worcestershire all the senior school proms and events etc have been cancelled. The year 6 prom (so last year before senior school) is going ahead, as is the whole year trip to Alton Towers, the plays, sports days etc. Bit weird.

Yes, that does seem to be a general theme. I do wonder how much of it is parental pester power.

From Richard (rp131)
Top 30 MSOAs by rate.

This looks like a lot of student areas of large cities to me...

@everythingthelighttouches

From Richard (rp131) Top 30 MSOAs by rate.

This looks like a lot of student areas of large cities to me...

The two from Bristol are student neighbourhoods

I assume Uni's are still having quite "encouraged" testing going on - must show LFT to access various things? So there could be an aspect of higher testing rate (as well as the higher "pub going" proportion of the community of course)

Seems likely that pubs everywhere are drivers - I am really astonished by the testing rates in these groups (not quite as much as the young adult Scottish football of course, that really was astonishing to me!)

I don’t think unis can insist on anyone showing a LFT result for anything?

@JanFebAnyMonth

I don’t think unis can insist on anyone showing a LFT result for anything?

Durham's insisting on 2 negative tests taken at specific places (so supervised) before they can go to any of the uni organised events. My dd says they're very inconvenient but they are turning people away if they haven't done them.

What I don't know though is whether they count as a positive case in the government stats or whether they then have to go away and do a pcr afterwards to count.

I did put it in quotes, but yes they're pretty coercive, but obvious entirely voluntary e.g.:
"Alternatively, those who do not take up the offer of a test upon returning must self-isolate for 10 days when returning to Sheffield."

Or straight up "required" language by Loughborough.
"Thereafter, the University requires all students making use of on campus facilities to take at least one Covid-19 test every 7 days and be able, if asked, to demonstrate a negative result or proof of a positive test result within the last 90 days."

What I don't know though is whether they count as a positive case in the government stats or whether they then have to go away and do a pcr afterwards to count

The university testing centres are all NHS ones aren't they, so they'll be automatically recorded.

The cases about info says this

COVID-19 cases are identified by taking specimens from people and testing them for the presence of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. If the test is positive (except for rapid lateral flow tests which have negative confirmatory lab-based polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests taken within 72 hours), this is referred to as a case. If a person has more than one positive test, they are only counted as one case.

Cases data includes all positive lab confirmed virus test results plus, in England, positive rapid lateral flow tests that do not have negative confirmatory lab-based polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests taken within 72 hours.

So I think they are included. Can be taken off if negative and PCR not added if positive.

At least I think that is what it says

Checking in!

@everythingthelighttouches

From Richard (rp131) Top 30 MSOAs by rate.

This looks like a lot of student areas of large cities to me...

Leamington Brunswick and Coventry (University) are both related to a big Warwick University outbreak.

We’ve talked about vaccinating children and the side effects of myocarditis here before. I’m not sure if this is new data in the New York Times this morning…

The coronavirus vaccines made by Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna may have caused heart problems in more than 1,200 Americans, including about 500 who were younger than age 30, according to data reported on Wednesday by researchers at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Still, the benefits of immunization greatly outweigh the risks, advisers to the C.D.C. said. They strongly recommended vaccination for all Americans 12 and older.

The heart problems are myocarditis, inflammation of the heart muscle; and pericarditis, inflammation of the lining around the heart. The risk is higher after the second dose of an mRNA vaccine than the first, and much higher in men than in women. Researchers do not know why.

But the side effect is very uncommon, just 12.6 cases per million second doses administered.

C.D.C. researchers estimated that every million second doses given to boys ages 12 to 17 might cause a maximum of 70 myocarditis cases, but would prevent 5,700 infections, 215 hospitalizations and two deaths.

Agency researchers presented the data to members of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, which makes recommendations on vaccine use in the United States. (The scientists grouped together pericarditis and myocarditis for reporting purposes.)

Most cases were mild, with symptoms like fatigue, chest pain and disturbances in heart rhythm that quickly cleared up, the researchers reported. Of the 484 cases reported in Americans under age 30, the C.D.C. has definitively linked 323 cases to vaccination. The rest remain under investigation.

Most cases were mild, with symptoms like fatigue, chest pain and disturbances in heart rhythm that quickly cleared up
This is the biggest take-away. 12.6/million can sound like a lot, but if most recover quickly with no more than a scare, then it genuinely isn't problematic.

My DS's uni still has most of campus closed but the bar is open. They don't require ant evidence of LFTs at all. I think they do for the library but as he has never set foot in it, I can't be sure! I was wondering whether the uptick of uni cases was students testing before going home?

Anecdote alert! Dd is in Bristol and has friends in many uni towns. She has recently had COVID, as have many contemporaries, all picked up on LFTs done because of contact or because of cold/hayfever symptoms.

The vast majority were not on routine screening. Apparently (!) they haven't been breaking the rules, but it's spread during end of term socialising either through small groups inside ( or maybe larger groups outside- we don't know). Everyone she knows has kept to the isolation rules, but many had several days when they thought they had hay fever before testing.

In good news, it seems to be sticking to the student population and (anecdotally again) seems to be slowing down now.

but if most recover quickly with no more than a scare, then it genuinely isn't problematic

Covid?

To be honest with all of these things : covid, long covid, vaccine side effects etc , many parents hear the word 'most' and think 'what if?'.

I am not massively reassured by the myocarditis thing as DH has congenital heart condition and doctors were always very offhand about the chances of either DS having similar. They have never been scanned or looked at. DS1 has had his Pfizer with no side effects but it does give me the jitters a little. Any parent with vaccine anxieties doesn't get as much reassurance as all that from 'most'. And , if MN is representative (although I am not convinced it is!) that is quite a lot of parents.

I am still despairing about schools though . There is literally no road map for schools in England and it's nearly the end of term. DS isolating this week : despite being in crazy Kent then Delta area, he has avoided it up to now. It focuses one's mind.

It seems for children we had limited trials and there are some real life issues.

If these issues had been with AZ it would have been paused in many countries by now.

With Pfizer it seems to be the 2nd jab that is the most problematic. Are they getting the same amount of vaccine? Should a petite 12 year old girl get the same dosage as a 40 year 6ft male?

Would 1 dose be enough for many if they have already had covid.

What level of immunity do they have after 1 dose.

Would longer spacing out be better for children to get their bodies enough time to absorb the 1st dose?

Apologies I am not medical & some of the above can probably be easily discounted, but I am wary that they have rushed it out too quick in some places because the adults didn't step up & get vaccinated.